Article

2022-03-17 Economy

Soaring Inflation at 40-Year High – Is a 100-Year High Ahead?

[Zero] The market up-move since March 2020 was caused by massive credit and liquidity creation by the Fed, not traditional fundamentals. In fact, it was the biggest money and credit creation of any central bank in history.

It is amazing what 5-10 TRILLION artificial dollars can do for stocks. The crash of March 2020 turned into a giant stock rally in April 2020. But all good things come to an end. In 2021, the rally faltered, sector by sector. The small cap index of 2000 stocks, the Russell 2000, topped in March 2021, traded sideways until November, and then had a quick breakout to a new high that didn’t last.

At that time we said in our Wellington Letter that if it turned out to be a false upside breakout, as we suspected, it would be an important market top and lead to a painful decline for the bulls.

When the IWM, the ETF for the Russell 2000 Index, turned down in November 2021 and broke strong support (top horizontal blue line), we wrote that the false breakout was now confirmed as it became clear to us that a bear market was ahead. See the 2-day chart of the IWM below, which shows the false upside breakout last November.

Posted by Besoeker 2022-03-17 02:42|| || Front Page|| [21 views ] Top

#1 from about early 1979 through late 1981 the all item CPI year on year was about 10%

mortgage rates topped out near 20%

unemployment topped out above 10% in 1982 but was above 7% for about 5 years from 199-1984.

Posted by Lord Garth 2022-03-17 06:57|| 2022-03-17 06:57|| Front Page Top

#2 1979-1984 in above

Posted by Lord Garth 2022-03-17 06:58|| 2022-03-17 06:58|| Front Page Top

#3

Have been seeing more and more "I DID THAT" stickers on Gas Pumps. The station attendants nor the customers are removing them now, unlike before.

The most humorous sticker placement with a deeper meaning I have seen to date was placed on a Stuffed POOP Pile toy.

Posted by NN2N1 2022-03-17 08:44|| 2022-03-17 08:44|| Front Page Top

#4

Link

The above article suggests the problems have just begun, as the climate change already underway to COOL the planet for the next century of so will make a lot more trouble for everybody at dinner.
We should be positioned for it better than most nations given energy and food independence, but trust the Demokrats to waste all of that if we let them. If they do, I suspect the simple recipe my grandfather learned might help: " hunger, politician, lamppost, rope, stir as needed..."

Posted by NoMoreBS 2022-03-17 12:16|| 2022-03-17 12:16|| Front Page Top

#5 WTI's up 8% today. Looks like Russian oil traders have figured out an easy workaround to evade some of the sanctions
"Russian oil market participants have switched their trading tactics, favouring private deals over public offerings due to new Western sanctions"

Posted by Pliny Sproing5382 2022-03-17 12:56|| 2022-03-17 12:56|| Front Page Top

#6 It's really easy to bust sanctions if you have the right connections. Like Israel's mining billionaire Dan Gertler
"Gertler may have been able to evade US sanctions and continue to operate freely in DRC’s mining sector. His close connections to those with power and influence in DRC could have helped allow him to continue doing business, as has his apparent use of an international money laundering network."

Posted by Flavins Japer3439 2022-03-17 13:08|| 2022-03-17 13:08|| Front Page Top

07:29 NN2N1
07:24 NN2N1
06:47 NN2N1
06:34 Anon1
06:31 Besoeker
06:29 Besoeker
06:28 Anon1
06:18 Anon1
06:14 Besoeker
03:50 Grom the reflective
02:45 Grom the reflective
02:44 Grom the reflective
02:42 Grom the reflective
02:41 badanov
01:37 Angealing+B.+Hayes4677
00:50 DarthVader
00:01 Skidmark