Article

2022-03-15 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

by Peter Van Buren

[American Conservative] Propaganda riven with sympathy for the plucky defenders has dominated the early days of the Ukraine war. This purposefully created a false sense of Russian setbacks and a misunderstanding of Russian strategy. The Russians are executing a standard mechanized warfare maneuver in line with their goals, attacking south from Belarus to link up with forces attacking northward from Crimea. When they link up south of Kiev, Ukraine will be split into two. Kiev may be bypassed, or it may be destroyed, but that is secondary to the larger strategic maneuver. Another Russian thrust from east to west seeks to cut the nation into quarters so Ukrainian forces cannot reinforce one another.

Forget all the silliness about the Russians running out of gas; their supply lines are short (many Russian forces are within 70 miles of their own border), protected, and over decent roads. This is what is happening on the ground and Ukrainian forces are in no position to do anything but delay it. Watching war through a smartphone from a peaceful country may help you believe the Russian assault is going poorly, but that is at odds with the facts.

So, here is how this all ends.

Posted by KBK 2022-03-15 01:17|| || Front Page|| [11132 views ] Top

#1 Right. Sp all those photos and battdame assessment by @Oyrx and OSNIT Twitter all fake.? Right?
And how"s the Blitzkrieg working out? O right again, Russian armour is scrap metal.
And finally let's not about logistics. No siree. Trust the plan!

Posted by Percy Flotle3938 2022-03-15 05:52|| 2022-03-15 05:52|| Front Page Top

Posted by Greng Black3494 2022-03-15 08:32|| 2022-03-15 08:32|| Front Page Top

#3 Captured Russian conscripts say their forces are being decimated by Ukraine and regularly run out of food as they apologise for attacking the country 'like fascists'

Posted by Skidmark 2022-03-15 09:10|| 2022-03-15 09:10|| Front Page Top

#4 Never. It will now fester for hundreds years, like so many European grudges.

Posted by Procopius2k 2022-03-15 10:30|| 2022-03-15 10:30|| Front Page Top

#5 I see three likely endings, the order is random, not in likelyhood or preference of outcome:
(1) Russians run out of material and retrench back to the independent areas and Crimea (with or without a peace treaty). Those areas become parts of Russia.
(2) Afghan option. Russia occupies all of Ukraine and the people fight for a decade with support from the west. Eventually after a long time, perhaps a decade, the Russians pull back but keep those same independent areas and Crimea.
(3) Putin is removed and Russian troops are brought back to Russia. Status of the independent areas and Crimea may be returned to Ukraine in hopes of rejoining the world community. Then again they may not be. Putin could possibly be removed by someone worse than him, no way to tell at this point.

Posted by ruprecht 2022-03-15 14:22|| 2022-03-15 14:22|| Front Page Top

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