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2022-02-05 Economy

Here Is What's Behind Today's Stunning Payrolls Beat

[ZeroHedge] For those who only look at headlines, today's payrolls report was a veritable shock: coming in at 467K, it was almost 4x the consensus median expectation of 125K, and was orders of magnitude above Goldman's forecast of -250K. Putting the stunning, 3-sigma beat in context, it came above all 78 estimates, and was more than double the highest forecast of 225K from HSBC. Even more ludicrous were historical adjustments which saw December increased from 199K to 510K, November from 249K to 647K and so on.

How is that possible?

After all even CNBC - while interviewing labor secretary Marty Walsh - couldn't believe the BLS data, prompting the secretary to repeat on many occasions that the numbers are "credible" and he "stands behind them" and of course he will: after all, taken at face value the numbers signal a resilient labor market and demand for workers despite omicron’s hit. The gains were broad-based, spanning retail, hospitality, transportation and warehousing, business services and others. In short, contrary to data from even the Atlanta Fed whose GDPNow shows Q1 GDP rising just 0.1%, the labor data indicates an economy firing on all cylinders and growing strong.

But is that true?

Well, here's what happened. First, looking at just the December to January change we find that while the seasonally adjusted number rose by an impressive 467K, the unadjusted number collapsed, tumbling from 150.349 million to 147.525 million, a 2.8 million drop (as it tends to do every time the year shifts from December to January) meaning that the entire delta in the January number - somewhere in the 3+ million range - is due to arbitrary adjustments overlaid on top of the data.

Posted by Spike Spavimble2925 2022-02-05 00:00|| || Front Page|| [7 views ] Top

#1 The article also explains that the deep state also did this to Trump in 2017 (in the opposite direction) adjusting the job numbers downward and pushing Obama's numbers up.

The trick is to make the opposing changes to months 3 to 6 months in the past so no one will notice.

Posted by Andy Smiter of the Seminoles 2022-02-05 11:45|| 2022-02-05 11:45|| Front Page Top

#2 Magic numbers. They're not just for COVID propaganda...

Posted by M. Murcek 2022-02-05 12:11|| 2022-02-05 12:11|| Front Page Top

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