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2021-11-30 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
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A new war in Donbass as a self-fulfilling prophecy
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Oleg Nemensky
[Regnum] In recent days, we have seen that Kiev has ceased to refute American statements about Russia's preparations for a large-scale offensive against Ukraine.
Moreover, more and more responsible persons are beginning to say something similar. But the surprise was caused rather by the previous desire of Kiev to refute its patrons from the United States. That he was persuaded not to do this anymore is quite understandable. The question remains to what extent the Americans are interested in real serious provocations on the line of contact.
The situation is very dangerous. In the United States, most likely, they are simply conducting an information campaign in preparation for the January meeting of Biden with Putin, which is supposedly supposed to put an end to Russia's aggressive actions. However, in reality, the situation is far from under control to the extent that it can be hoped that everything will go according to plan.
In American sociology, back in the middle of the last century, such a concept as a self-fulfilling prophecy appeared. Relatively speaking, if a rumor is spread that a bank will soon go bankrupt, then it will surely go bankrupt after everyone runs out of it en masse to take money.
So, a disinformation campaign about Russian preparations for an invasion can inevitably lead to serious military movements from Ukraine, and this will require an adequate response from Russia. In addition, Ukraine as a whole is a very poorly managed system, there are many who want to start a major military mess, and the conditions for this are now being created very favorable.
So in fact, all this can develop into a real military conflict, and this can happen almost at any time. And it is quite possible to do so that Russia will be forced to intervene, especially since we now have hundreds of thousands of fellow citizens there. Although both Kiev and Washington are well aware that this is not in her interests.
An interest in escalation is becoming more and more noticeable in Kiev itself. Now the contradictions between the oligarchs and Zelensky, who are trying to concentrate power in their hands in the conditions of a large-scale privatization being prepared, have become very aggravated. He is already using illegal measures for this, and a new military conflict can allow him to act in general as he pleases - as they say, out of bounds. There are those who want to arrange something similar in America - the Nord Stream 2 problem will certainly solve this, and will also bind Russia in a situation of a possible conflict over Taiwan.
And yet I believe that neither the Biden administration nor the Zelenskiy office is interested in starting a large-scale Ukrainian-Russian war - their interest does not extend beyond major provocations. Nobody in Kiev seriously wants to take Donetsk and Lugansk by storm, they simply do not need Donbass, as well as defeat from clashes with the Russian army.
Biden's team also did not intend to sever all ties with Russia - on the contrary, a lot has already been done in the opposite direction. But whether they will be able to stop their people in time and prevent large-scale consequences of all these provocations is a big question. In fact, everything can go according to an uncontrollable scenario.
Oleg Nemensky is a Russian historian 
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Posted by badanov 2021-11-30 00:00||
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Posted by Besoeker 2021-11-30 06:06||
2021-11-30 06:06||
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