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2021-11-27 Economy
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The oil barrel is rolling down again
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Igor Galaktionov
[REGNUM] On November 24-25, oil prices remained stable. On Thursday, November 25, there was a day off in the US stock markets due to the Thanksgiving Day celebrations. The futures market continued trading, but the turnover was below average. Contracts for Brent crude were traded in a narrow range, while futures contracts for US WTI looked a little worse - the sale of oil from the US reserves (SPR) could put pressure on oil prices due to increased supply in the domestic market.
In part, this already affects the quotes - the spread between contracts for European Brent and American WTI is gradually growing.
At the same time, there was a series of news that put pressure on oil prices. According to media reports citing sources in the OPEC alliance, the sale of oil from the strategic reserves of importing countries could significantly increase the surplus in the oil market in 2022.
According to OPEC + estimates, in December the surplus may reach 0.4 million barrels per day. In January, the surplus will increase to 2.3 million barrels per day, and in February will increase to 3.7 million barrels per day.
Another major event that triggered a 5 percent drop on November 26 was the discovery of a new strain of coronavirus in Africa. All business media have already spread this news, and a number of countries have announced the suspension of flights with African countries. Such news increases the chances of new lockdowns.
At best, the negative effect will be limited to weak consumption of aviation fuel in the context of continuing restrictions on air travel. At worst, we will see new lockdowns and a drop in car traffic, which accounts for up to 60 percent of all liquid fuel consumption.
Oil quotes have already reacted to the deterioration of forecasts for the market balance, in the morning of November 26, showing a strong decline. On the whole, market factors are developing in such a way that at the moment oil prices are becoming more prone to correction.
The volume of supply on the market is growing, the American currency is strengthening, and in December-February we will see a seasonal slowdown in demand. Most of the participants agree for 2022, expecting prices to come down. Obviously, in such circumstances, large hedge funds have no incentive to increase long positions in oil, at the same time, it is profitable for oil traders to sell as much oil as possible right now, given the favorable price environment for them.
In the short term, the views of the market in the last days of November will be riveted on the next OPEC + meeting. Under current conditions, the alliance may well deviate from its plan to increase production by 400 thousand bpd per month and pause in January. This could support oil quotes and keep them in the region of $75 to $80 per barrel of Brent for some time.
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Posted by badanov 2021-11-27 00:00||
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Posted by Too Old To Work 2021-11-27 09:59||
2021-11-27 09:59||
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Posted by Merrick Ferret 2021-11-27 20:39||
2021-11-27 20:39||
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