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2021-09-21 Economy
China's Evergrande Contagion- How bad will it be for USA and World
[YahooFinance] China Evergrande (SEHK:3333) is the topic of the hour. Set to default on its debts, it is wreaking havoc on global markets. As of this writing, all major stock indexes were down significantly in pre-market trading. China’s hang seng index, which trades overnight in North American time zones, closed the day down 3.3%.

It’s going to be a rough week. There’s guaranteed to be fallout from Evergrande’s implosion, and it’s going to affect stocks. The question is, how bad will it get? With the Evergrande situation, many of the world’s biggest financial institutions are at risk. It does not look like Evergrande will be getting a bailout, so it will go into default. The company doesn’t have enough liquidity to pay its debts quickly. So if bondholders do get paid, it will only be far in the future, after massive asset sales have occurred.

WHY SOME THINK EVERGRANDE COULD TANK THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
Many people think that Evergrande could collapse the global economy as U.S. banks did in 2008. Evergrande has a whopping $300 billion in debt owed to financial institutions all over the world. Major Chinese, U.S., and European banks could lose money over this. And as 2008 showed, when banks experience losses, economic contagion ensues.

The 2008 financial crisis started when sub-prime mortgages went into default and banks and other financial institutions started taking losses. The losses were compounded by losses on derivatives built on mortgages and mortgage-backed securities. By the time all was said and done, $8 trillion in stock market value was wiped out.
An order of magnitude difference, assuming the $300 billion really is all the debt there is. On the other hand, the world economy is particularly fragile at the moment, possibly taking less to reach a tipping point.
Posted by Lord Garth 2021-09-21 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11132 views ]  Top
 File under: Commies 

#1 The 2008 financial crisis started when sub-prime mortgages went into default and banks and other financial institutions started taking losses.

That's a weird way of saying "criminal elites screwed us all over, deliberately, spread mass suffering, and not a single one of them went to prison despite committing multiple very serious felonies."
Posted by Blinky Pholuling8616 2021-09-21 01:06||   2021-09-21 01:06|| Front Page Top

#2 not a single one of them went to prison

The mortgage loans were mandated by congress (i.e Dems) and then the crooks and con men moved in.
Posted by Spereng Crins7805 2021-09-21 05:45||   2021-09-21 05:45|| Front Page Top

#3 Hopefully the Biden Criminal Clan holds long on Evergrande
Posted by Frank G 2021-09-21 06:41||   2021-09-21 06:41|| Front Page Top

#4 Waiting for Biden to bail-out China 'because we must so save the global economy'.

What happens to the global economy when the US starts defaulting on our debts?
Posted by ruprecht 2021-09-21 10:18||   2021-09-21 10:18|| Front Page Top

#5 assuming the $300 billion really is all the debt there is.

Also assuming Evergrande is the only one doing it. The problem with the 2008 banking crisis is that all large banks were "investing" in liar loans and derivatives. In the end no one knew who was solvent and who was pretending.

Posted by Hupailing Sponter4766 2021-09-21 11:31||   2021-09-21 11:31|| Front Page Top

#6 The mortgage loans were mandated by congress (i.e Dems) and then the crooks and con men moved in.

The Dems in Congress, and many if not most of their Republican colleagues, were the crooks and con men. Remember, the mortgage meltdown happened on W's watch.
Posted by Abu Uluque 2021-09-21 12:35||   2021-09-21 12:35|| Front Page Top

#7 Crime can be legal if you're the one writing the law.
Posted by Abu Uluque 2021-09-21 12:36||   2021-09-21 12:36|| Front Page Top

#8 Evergrande needs to be seen in the context of Xi Jinping's move to consolidate his own power in China and return that country to a purer form of communism than what was practiced by his predecessors. He is cracking down on big tech and other big companies because he sees them as a growing threat to the CCP's power. Today's WSJ had an article that told of Xi's concern when Twitter closed Trump's account. You can well imagine that he would not want to allow anything like that to happen to him. If I was a big time investor, I would be looking to minimize my exposure to Chinese stocks.
Posted by Abu Uluque 2021-09-21 12:43||   2021-09-21 12:43|| Front Page Top

#9 Big Chinese property developer's public shares nosedived 87% before trading was halted yesterday afternoon.
Posted by Raj 2021-09-21 16:21||   2021-09-21 16:21|| Front Page Top

#10 USD gets stronger....
Posted by BrerRabbit 2021-09-21 16:23||   2021-09-21 16:23|| Front Page Top

#11 I'd expect the short-term consequences to be limited. Like Japan's, China's economy can be classified as managed capitalism, with a cadre of self-important morons doing the equivalent of flipping switches on a panel. The difference in China is that anyone who gets in the way can end up in a gulag. If the Chinese property bubble bursts, we can expect to see many years of doldrums similar to the 90% top to bottom Japanese real estate crash that took 20 years to play out. But the odds of a Black Monday type crash in infinitesimal. What China does have going for it is that it still has a bunch of catching up to do on the tech frontier, whereas Japan was all caught up, but lacked the werewithal to extend that frontier in a way that made a dent on economic stats. Whereas roughly 1/2 of China has a per capita (that's household income/number of people in a household) income of less than 1,000 yuan per month.

https://www.cnbctv18.com/economy/china-has-over-600-million-poor-with-140-monthly-income-premier-li-keqiang-6024341.htm
Posted by Zhang Fei 2021-09-21 17:09||   2021-09-21 17:09|| Front Page Top

#12 Goldman Sachs issues a 'dire warning' on China's property sector, expects the Chinese government to bail it out.
Posted by Raj 2021-09-21 17:19||   2021-09-21 17:19|| Front Page Top

#13 There is no knock-off effect. US investors have no exposure to Chinese property - by order of the CCP. Didn't make any money off their bubble and won't lose any money now that Mao Xi-Tung wants to pop that bubble.
Posted by DaBigGuy 2021-09-21 18:09||   2021-09-21 18:09|| Front Page Top

#14 Can we, FINALLY, wean ourselves off of the toxic China-teat once and for all? Good riddance.
Posted by DaBigGuy 2021-09-21 18:11||   2021-09-21 18:11|| Front Page Top

#15 No More Toxic Teatery!
Posted by SteveS 2021-09-21 18:47||   2021-09-21 18:47|| Front Page Top

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