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2021-09-05 Afghanistan
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The Great Game: what prospects opened up for China in post-NATO Afghanistan
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
By Boris Rozhin
Chinese interest
As the old Afghanistan transforms into the new "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan", not only the question of the potential growth of the terrorist threat in Central Asia, but also the prospects for cooperation between the Taliban and China, is of increasing interest.
Continued from Page 4
The PRC, like Russia, long before the US left Afghanistan, maintained first unofficial and then official contacts with the group, which developed in parallel with the Doha settlement process. The very fact of the negotiations in Doha transparently hinted that China needs to be ready to design a vector of Afghanistan's development that would be beneficial to Beijing, whether it be under the Taliban's monopoly power or under some kind of coalition government with the participation of the group.
During the years of the occupation of Afghanistan, China periodically condemned the United States for profaning the fight against drug production and terrorism in the republic. Under the rule of the puppet government, Afghanistan became the world leader in the production of heroin (at the peak of 86 to 93% of the total world turnover), some of which went to China as well.
In addition, “Vilayat Khorasan” appeared on Afghan territory - a local cell of the “Islamic State” 1, which at first was subordinate to the “great Caliph” in Raqqa, and then went on a free voyage.
Remarkably, both the Taliban and former Afghan President Hamid Karzai directly accused the United States of being involved in the emergence of IS in the region. The Taliban stated that the States, terrorists and the government of Ashraf Ghani are acting in concert, while Karzai said in plain text that IS is Washington's tool in the republic. Of course, China is not happy with the fact that in addition to local terrorist groups, a "black" abscess has appeared on its borders.
But not only IS or Al-Qaeda 1, which has been in Afghanistan for a long time, worries the Chinese. On top of that, Beijing is concerned about the use of the country's territory by Uyghur terrorist groups, which are trying to undermine the PRC's efforts to consolidate control over Xinjiang. With the United States using the topic of the region and the rights of the Uyghur population to put pressure on the Middle Kingdom, China views the threat of Uyghur terrorism as part of a covert campaign aimed at undermining its territorial integrity.
Back in the first half of the 2010s, Chinese special forces carried out border operations in Gorno Badakhshan, in areas that were not controlled by the government. The targets were Uyghur terrorists and IS militants. The success and frequency of such operations by the PLA and the Ministry of State Security of the PRC were not disclosed.
On the whole, this was a reactive activity, since the United States and the puppet government in Kabul actually preserved the situation for 20 years, depriving China of the opportunity to influence the alignment in Afghanistan. Now the situation is changing, which conceals both new dangers and new opportunities for Beijing.
To some extent, the PRC is now in the same position as Russia, when the future of relations with Afghanistan is not fully determined and there are opportunities for its construction, where the main thing is to avoid mistakes associated with underestimating or overestimating the capabilities of the Taliban and his plans.
Consider some aspects of China's future relations with the Taliban.
Diplomacy
At the diplomatic level, Beijing takes the same position as Moscow. He is ready to recognize the Taliban as a legitimate authority and cooperate with it at various levels, but only if the Taliban's promises to "civilize" do not disagree with reality and do not meet irresistible opposition within the movement itself.
From 2018-2019, representatives of the PRC Foreign Ministry held consultations with the group's delegations who came to China. And there, the Taliban were outlined the possible future of their relations with the Celestial Empire, which now manifests itself both in the statements of Minister Wang Yi about his readiness to cooperate with the Taliban and invest in Afghanistan, and in the statements of the political leadership of the radical movement, which directly calls China its main strategic partner.
In practice, this translates into more than just rhetorical statements. As part of the agreements with the Taliban, China did not take out its embassy in Kabul, which the militants took over after the collapse of the old security apparatus. A spokesman for the movement directly stated that the Chinese (as well as Russian) diplomats are not in danger, since the PRC (like Russia) is regarded by the Taliban as a friendly partner country with which the new Afghanistan ties its future.
Economy
However, China is still waiting for economic cooperation. If Qatar and the UAE have already sent the first consignments of humanitarian aid to Kabul, then Beijing is waiting for the formation of a new government and its intra-Afghan legitimization, after which the issue of excluding the Taliban from the number of terrorist groups and its international recognition will be resolved. After that, various economic and infrastructure projects can be launched quite quickly. Some of them already exist in the form of development concepts in which money can be invested in the next 1-2 years.
If we consider the economic projects that China can implement in Afghanistan, then they can be divided into humanitarian, recovery, infrastructure, and mining. The country is certainly ready to send humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, and given its economic potential, this is a serious investment in strengthening the PRC's image both among ordinary Afghans and among Taliban supporters.
China is also ready to invest resources in the restoration of enterprises destroyed or abandoned during the war years, energy facilities, tunnels, roads, schools, hospitals, etc. A scheme for such work has long been worked out by Beijing in Africa, where such investments are converted into an increase in political and economic influence on countries with a large volume of Chinese investments.
The Great Game: what prospects opened up for China
In terms of rebuilding and building infrastructure, China's plans are more ambitious. Afghanistan is interesting to Beijing not just as a country for potential investments. It is viewed as a state that can become a kind of transport hub and through which new roads and railways, as well as pipelines to Iran, Pakistan and the republics of Central Asia will pass. All of this can be included in China's main strategic initiative, One Belt, One Road.
During the occupation, the Americans actually blocked the possibility of using Afghanistan in this strategy, as a result of which China was somewhat limited in the issue of laying land transport corridors. With the departure of the United States, this issue moved into the plane of direct agreements with the Taliban and its ability to resolve security issues in the provinces through which such projects will pass.
In exchange, the PRC is ready to invest, preferring to invest in stability in Afghanistan, rather than in security along its perimeter. Of course, from the point of view of the US struggle against Chinese economic expansion, the preservation of instability in Afghanistan is advantageous, among other things, in order to hinder Chinese projects.
Resources
Among other things, Afghanistan has large reserves of minerals, including lithium (we are talking about hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars). These data were confirmed by geological studies, which were carried out by order of the Pentagon.
But due to the security situation, as well as the complexity and high cost of production in the warring country, most of the fields are not actually being developed. China, of course, is interested in this aspect of cooperation, which will be possible if the Taliban resolve the issue of stability. Ultimately, the group's benefit is that Beijing is investing billions of dollars in Afghanistan, allowing the Taliban to show that life in the country is improving under his rule. At the same time, the PRC will receive the necessary resources and logistics. The classic win-win situation, when both parties benefit from a deal.
In order to facilitate the achievement of such a deal, China has the opportunity to indirectly influence the leadership of the Taliban through Pakistan and Iran, which are friendly countries to China. Pakistan is one of the main economic and weapons partners of the PRC in Central Asia, and a strategic partnership agreement was recently concluded with Iran for 25 years.
Tehran and Islamabad are also interested in seeing the Beijing economic projects implemented, so those Taliban factions that have contacts with the republics and are interested in strengthening their power will also support the Chinese proposals.
Not everything is so smooth
But there are also pitfalls in this situation. Uyghur terrorists operate on the territory of Afghanistan. Not long ago, their Pakistani subsidiary killed 9 Chinese geologists. The PRC demands the Taliban to squeeze these militants out of Afghanistan and prevent them from using the country as a base for anti-Chinese activities. This is actually one of the conditions in Beijing.
But if some factions of the Taliban promise that Afghanistan will not be used to attack anyone, others - who dream of expanding the number of countries living under Sharia law - can de facto support the presence of such terrorists in Afghanistan. In fact, they sabotage the efforts of the group's political bureau and play on the side of the United States in destabilizing the region.
It is no coincidence that Iranian experts warn that the US "political bookmarks" in the Taliban may thwart all efforts of the leaders of the movement to portray themselves as a normal government. They are ready to start a new war in the country, so long as Afghanistan does not take the path of peaceful construction.
At the same time, the Iranians compare this situation with the actions of the terrorist organizations of the Kurds, who, operating from the territory of Iraqi Kurdistan, carry out attacks on Iranian border posts and even move into the territory of the Islamic Republic.
The same applies to those factions of the Taliban that attack the local military in Pakistan and are destabilizing the country. For China, Pakistan is an important counterweight to India, as well as one of the pillars of the sea transport corridor that runs along the coast of the Indian Ocean. The damage that these factions inflict on the Pakistanis, in some cases, can hit Chinese interests in the region, so Beijing will most likely insist that the activity of the Taliban in the mountainous regions of Pakistan should be reduced. In this he, of course, will find full support from the local military intelligence, which does not even hide the fact that it supports a number of factions within the Taliban.
The key question is whether the new leadership of Afghanistan will be able to ensure normal control over the fulfillment of its promises, so that China can make sure that the words of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar & Co. do not diverge from the deeds. In the Chinese press on this occasion, they pragmatically urge to wait 2-3 months, so that when the situation with the Taliban becomes clear, to act for sure.
Here I would note one more important detail: if the Taliban and the PRC find mutual understanding, then some issues with the security of infrastructure projects in Afghanistan will be solved by Chinese PMCs, which have been preparing in Xinjiang under the Eric Prince program since the mid-10s .
Great Game
With regard to the security issue of the Central Asian republics, China is cooperating with Russia in order to prevent a situation when Afghanistan will be used as a springboard for the destabilization of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. If for the Russian Federation it is a matter of its own security, then for the PRC it is primarily the interest in the security of investments, already laid transport corridors of the One Belt - One Road initiative and access to the natural resources of these countries.
If Russia has great opportunities for military-political influence in the region, then China will act primarily with its economic muscles, transparently hinting to the Taliban that it is better to develop Afghanistan through investments of the PRC than to climb north, threatening not only the Russian Federation, but also the economic interests of Beijing.
It is not hard to understand that for the Chinese authorities, Afghanistan presents a rather complex problem with various variables. A successful solution can bring enormous benefits to Beijing. Failure to solve them may turn into a continuation of the processes of destabilization, which will threaten both Chinese interests in Central Asia, Iran and Pakistan, and China itself.
Within the framework of the new Cold War, the United States, of course, will try to make sure that the ambitious plans of the Chinese are torpedoed both by the objective problems of Afghanistan itself and by various operations of the special services, including those under a false flag. The war in Afghanistan is over, but the struggle with China continues, so the region, as before, remains one of the sites of the great game.
Only now the first fiddle is played there not by Russia and Britain, but by the United States and China. The disastrous scenario of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan opens up the opportunity for Beijing to retain not only this round of struggle, but the entire party for control over Central Asia.
Boris Rozhin is a Russian military journalist 
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Posted by badanov 2021-09-05 00:00||
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Posted by Dale 2021-09-05 07:47||
2021-09-05 07:47||
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