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2021-07-10 Europe
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France as a flanking potential of NATO in the war with Russia
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Direct translation via Google Translate. Edited.
Russian translation and summary of a recent RAND report. I couldn't find the report online.
By Vladimir Orlov
Part one. General issues
According to RAND experts, the French armed forces are among the most efficient in Western Europe and boast a full range of capabilities allowing them to engage in a full range of operations, including high-intensity conventional warfare against an equal adversary.
In this report, RAND researchers examine the role that the French military could play as a coalition partner in a hypothetical conflict with Russia.
| France has space capabilities out of Guiana Space Centre. They have Arianespace and Azercosmos (ESA Soyuz) launching out of there. France could improve it's military space situation if it invited some of the "New Space" companies to launch from there with permissions from New Zealand, USA and Japan. (Yes Japan now has New Space as private companies have taken over their launch vehicles.) Both Blue Origin and SpaceX could provide more throw weight than Ariane 5 and some of the other companies smaller quick launches to Space. The ESA should think out of the box on this as France is the only visible EU nation acting for a military advantage in space. |
Continued from Page 4
The researchers used a wide range of publications in French and English, as well as conversations with French defense experts, to understand not only the capabilities and ability of the French armed forces to wage war in general, but also their ability to wage high-intensity conventional war in particular.
Despite the fact that the report was released only in June 2021, many documents and comments on which this report is based are dated from 2017 to 2019. The report made analysis of the current capabilities of the French army, the issues of military construction and modernization of the army, military air and naval fleet, the direction of development of intelligence and approaches to multidomain operations, and will be given to evaluate the applicability of the French army in a hypothetical war with Russia
General issues
France currently has one of the most combat-ready armies in Western Europe, thanks to the country's desire to maintain the widest possible range of military capabilities and maintain its ability to cope with any type of conflict, including conventional high-intensity war, without the need to involve allies. Like all Western European armed forces, the French armed forces have significantly reduced their structure since 1991.
Each of the branches of the French armed forces is now fully professional, after the abolition of conscription in 1996 (PDF), and is less than half of what it was at the end of the Cold War, when about half of the personnel of the French armed forces were conscripts.
The reduction in number inevitably led to a reduction in the potential of the army. However, the French, by virtue of their strategic priorities, still have a wider range of capabilities than most other European armed forces. However, France's ability to maintain a high-tech conventional conflict is limited.
The French Armed Forces can carry out all their assigned tasks simultaneously, but they lack depth, which means that such complex operations will quickly deplete their manpower and material resources.
France's defense strategy is built on several commitments that date back to the reign of President Charles de Gaulle ( 1959-1969 ):
Maintaining a nuclear arsenal (France has air and submarine parts of the nuclear triad, having abandoned land-based missiles with nuclear warheads in the 1990s );
Retaining the ability to intervene anytime and anywhere to protect national interests;
Protecting key defense industries.
France has recently increased its defense spending: It has reaffirmed its commitment to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) goal of spending 2 percent of its gross domestic product on defense, making it a visible and useful partner in coalition operations.
However, it is important to note that France's views on burden sharing may differ from those of the United States; The French see their military's active overseas operations, especially in the Sahel, but also in Iraq and Syria, as burden-sharing - a form of in-kind contribution that strengthens the security of NATO and Europe, even if they are not mandated by NATO or the European Union. Moreover, while the French are concerned about Russia's actions on their southern flank (e.g. in Libya, Syria), they consider the Russian conventional threat in Europe to be limited, based on their assessment that nuclear deterrence is likely to prevail in such circumstances.
French army
At the end of the Cold War, the French army numbered 300,000 men, 15 divisions and three separate corps. She had a significant degree of specialization that distinguished her units equipped for conventional warfare from lighter expeditionary units.
The army currently has only two divisions and is intended to be a versatile force, with an emphasis on what the French call the médian segment in the spectrum of armed conflict (PDF).
The middle segment is usually defined as heavy enough to survive a large-scale war, but light enough to remain expeditionary - that is, suitable for deployment in harsh conditions, such as in Mali, in the absence of extensive logistics capabilities .
The military is investing heavily in technology, especially networked warfare technology (as seen in SCORPION's multibillion-dollar modernization program), but it faces a challenge in terms of readiness, due to past budget cuts and austerity measures, and the burden of maintaining current overseas operations (most notably Operation Barkhan in the Sahel and an internal security operation known as Operation Sentinelle) (PDF).
French Air Force
Like the army, the French Air Force has retained a wide range of capabilities after the cuts in the 1990s , although it suffers from limited capabilities.
One of the reasons the Air Force is a carrier of nuclear weapons, which obliges France to invest in ensuring the availability of delivery vehicles for these weapons.
The French Rafale are fully NATO compliant and the French are interested in making them F-35 compliant . There is a plan to replace the Rafale with a sixth generation aircraft by 2035-2040.
The French Air Force is experiencing an acute shortage of strategic aircraft. The introduction of the A330 Multirole Tanker Transports could increase strategic airlift capabilities while freeing up air transport for mid-air refueling.
Other shortcomings include a lack of ammunition, as well as a lack of suppression and penetration of enemy air defenses - (SEAD) (PDF). The latter also decreases due to limited ammunition, as SEAD may require the launch of a large number of airborne or sea-based SCALP cruise missiles Finally, the Air Force is also experiencing operational readiness difficulties. This problem applies to all French military aircraft, but it is especially pronounced in the helicopter fleet (this problem is common with the army). One of the reasons for this lack of readiness is the austerity of budgetary funds; another reason is the frequent deployment of French aircraft in difficult territorial conditions, especially in the Sahel.
French Navy
The French Navy, like the Air Force, shrank after the Cold War, but it retained a number of capabilities, mainly to support its nuclear deterrent mission.
The French Navy has dropped from 75,000 to about 35,000 and a fleet of 147 combat and support ships in 1985 to about 90 today. Meanwhile, the Navy is investing heavily to maintain a modern ballistic missile submarine fleet and defend it against the enemy. The latter requires a powerful anti-submarine potential, which is provided by aircraft, new frigates and attack submarines.
The French are modernizing their attack and ballistic submarines and associated weapon systems, while expanding their modern frigate fleet. The Navy recently refitted its only nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, and is conducting research to build one or possibly two carriers to replace it.
The Navy also plans to upgrade a number of its aircraft, including the carrier's E-2 early warning aircraft and the Atlantique patrol birds; the latter serve a dual function of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, and as weapons platforms to support ground operations in Africa and the Levant.
In general, French naval personnel are trained for conventional warfare, as the Navy's mission has not actually changed since the Cold War.
The Navy's limitations are its relatively small fleet size. Like other services in France, the Navy has operational readiness issues and ammunition supplies are reportedly low.
Space, cyber and intelligence capabilities
France is making major investments in the space and cyber sectors. France views space as a critical means of providing many high-tech capabilities, including nuclear capabilities, and cyber capabilities are becoming increasingly necessary for its own defense.
France is working on defensive and offensive space capabilities as well as modernizing its satellites, often in collaboration with European and other international partners. France's official space strategy calls for continued collaboration with the United States, which it calls an "important ally."
In terms of cyber capabilities, the French are responding to the increased threat level - including from Russia - with organizational changes, new doctrines and new funding. For example, in January 2017, the Cyber Operations Command was established in France to protect military networks and critical infrastructures. Funding also benefits the French intelligence services, which have seen significant increases in funding and personnel.
Political and social restrictions on the use of force
France has few legal political constraints against the use of force by the executive branch. The French constitution largely leaves defense policy and control of the military in the hands of a directly elected president, and military interventions have historically enjoyed strong public support.
However, France's ability to deploy forces remains limited due to the sheer number of ongoing operations - overseas (Operation Barkhane), counterterrorism at home (Operation Sentinelle), nuclear deterrence (for the Navy and Air Force), and maritime security and security vast territory of France (for the Navy). Deploying additional forces to Eastern Europe in significant numbers is likely to require the withdrawal of forces and assets from these missions, which could generate political resistance.
Conclusions and implications for US policy
France can support a US-led war in Eastern Europe; it has and is developing the capabilities needed to participate in high-intensity hostilities.
There are also a number of areas where US-French cooperation would make sense, including electronic warfare, high-precision fire prevention and air defense.
Specific modes of cooperation must be designed for each capability in a way that preserves the interests of both American and French defense companies.
Such cooperation can ensure that France solves some of its problems associated with the conduct of highly effective conventional warfare.
History of cooperation between France and the United States
The history of military cooperation between the United States and France dates back to the American Civil War. While Macron's presidency has marked renewed efforts to improve Europe's collective defense capacity by providing it with “autonomous operational capabilities,” France remains firmly committed to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and bilateral defense cooperation with the United States.
French troops have worked closely with US forces in Africa and the Levant, and since 2014, the French have been involved in efforts to secure and contain Russia in northeastern Europe.
In addition, France has rejected the trend of cutting its defense budget; In the 2017 Strategic Review of Defense and National Security (hereinafter referred to as the Strategic Review 2017), France clearly commits to achieving NATO's goal of 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) for defense spending by 2024. Against this backdrop, RAND experts and analysts seek to explore what military capabilities France can bring to a large-scale conventional war in a scenario in which Europe is the theater of conflict and Russia is the aggressor. Does France have adequate opportunities for such a struggle, and if not, how likely is it that she will receive them in the near future?
This French case study has two objectives. First , RAND experts are looking to examine France's current and future ability to share the burden with the United States and other allies in the event of a large-scale conventional war against Russia. Second , RAND experts are committed to providing guidance on how to fill potential gaps. This analysis is structured around the following key questions:
- To what extent is preparation for a large-scale conventional war a priority for France? How does it relate to other contingencies?
- What is the level of France's readiness for such a conflict, and what are France's comparative advantages in this conflict?
- What future programs (planned or potential) are most likely to increase France's potential for high-intensity conflict?
- Finally, what internal or external factors can hinder the development of France's military capabilities and its ability to use them in a European large-scale conventional war? What internal or external factors can hinder the development of France's military capabilities and its ability to use them in the scenario of a large-scale conventional war in Europe?
To answer these questions, RAND experts examined primary sources in French, such as official strategies, doctrinal documents, transcripts of French parliamentary hearings and legislative documents.
RAND experts also examined secondary sources in French and English on France's strategic priorities, military capabilities and French defense. Finally, RAND experts conducted over a dozen interviews between March and May 2019 with French government officials, current and retired French military officers, and French defense researchers.
RAND experts found that while France is not particularly worried about possible aggression from Russia, which it believes is highly unlikely, it is well aware of the damage a resurgent Russia could do in other regions, such as the Middle East and North Atlantic, as well as in hybrid sphere.
France's priority is to maintain strategic autonomy - which it defines as the ability to wage any war and remain a nuclear power.
The Defense Planning Law 2019–2025 (Loi de Programmation, or LPM) places a strong emphasis on the modernization of certain weapons to be used in the fighting in Mali and the Central African Republic; increasing the readiness of existing weapons; and increasing the morale and training of troops.
However, some gaps in French military capabilities will remain after 2025, as France trades "depth for breadth" - France is capable of conducting military operations in the entire spectrum of conflicts, but it does not have the ability to support the fight during a protracted conflict against a high-tech adversary such as Russia. From the US point of view, this means that France can participate in a large-scale conventional war in Eastern Europe for a limited time.
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