Direct Translation. Edited.
Interview with Russian professor of economics at Moscow State Institute of International Relations, Andrey Kazantsev
[REGNUM] The growing chaos in Afghanistan can combine with permanent chaos in Central Asia," Professor of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the Higher School of Economics, Chief Researcher of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, Andrey Kazantsev, commented to REGNUM IA REGNUM scheduled for June 28-29, the visit of Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov to Tajikistan.
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Regnum: Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov will fly to Tajikistan on June 28. Why do you think?
The presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan need to talk, because the potential for conflict on the border has not gone anywhere. It is not even frozen, it is frozen.
In addition, it is necessary to solve problems with enclaves - to provide access to Tajik territory so that the Kyrgyz are not offended, people will have to learn to interact with each other again. After they killed and robbed neighbors on both sides of the border.
"Strangers came and kicked them out of the house," - now the Kyrgyz and Tajiks have such memories of each other. Add to this set of problems the issue of water use.
Taking into account the peculiarities of politics and interethnic relations in Central Asia, the resolution of such disputes, naturally, should be resolved at the level of heads of state.
Regnum: Is it not a mistake for the President of Kyrgyzstan to take responsibility for resolving the border issue upon himself, because the previous heads of state avoided this?
The problem has become so aggravated, including due to the inaction of the previous government, that now it can no longer be ignored. If we do not negotiate now, including at the highest level, then after a while hostilities, with a high degree of probability, will resume.
If the escalation resulted in the use of heavy weapons, then at the next stage only a full-scale war is possible. In the absence of action, this risk is very high. If this scenario works, it will be even harder to stop.
Border problems are not Sadyr Japarov's fault. This is a question that has not been resolved for decades. But now, when the conflict has reached such a stage as now, he will have to resolve this issue. Although, of course, it would be more profitable for the president to postpone this problem.
Regnum: How do the recent events in Afghanistan, with the strengthening of the Taliban (an organization whose activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation) and their entry to the Tajik border, influence the position of President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon on the border with Kyrgyzstan?
The situation in Afghanistan is creating general nervousness in Central Asia, which is exacerbated by uncertainty. On the one hand, it is clear that Afghanistan will not be all right, peaceful and calm. On the other hand, it is not yet entirely clear how exactly the withdrawal of US troops will affect the countries of the region. So far, we can only speak with confidence about increased risks.
Against the background of growing general nervousness, Tajikistan has a growing incentive to try to resolve or at least freeze the current conflicts, including on the borders with Kyrgyzstan. Because if problems overlap each other, it will not seem a little to anyone.
Regnum: What do you have in mind?
The biggest risk is that the growing chaos in Afghanistan could be combined with permanent chaos in Central Asia.
The Taliban (an organization whose activities are banned in the Russian Federation) are not going to directly attack the countries of the region. But they can create an environment in Afghanistan in which all sorts of extremist groups will flourish.
Extremists are like cockroaches. They start where there is rot, debris, a lot of spoiling waste and leftovers. Accordingly, if there are many cracks in Central Asia where these cockroaches can climb, they will climb. Unfortunately, there are many such slots. Border conflicts are one of them.
It is necessary, if possible, to remove them. Unfortunately, much cannot be done. For example, to eliminate drug trafficking.
But the borderland problem can be frozen. I do not believe there is now a convenient solution to this conflict. Because whatever one may say, there will be dissatisfied either from the Kyrgyz or Tajik side.
Regnum: What is the best solution to the problem at this stage?
Freeze resistant. The parties need to exchange guarantees that disputes will be resolved without the use of even heavy weapons, as was the case in recent clashes.
To transfer the situation to the freezing stage, Bishkek and Dushanbe need to do a lot. Remove heavy weapons, take measures to restore confidence so that both sides are confident that they will not be attacked, create permanent commissions that will check, monitor and take urgent measures in the event of new clashes. This is a big and difficult job.
If it is not done, then the conflict from a frozen state can again spill over into open clashes.
Regnum: Which way of solving the border problem with Kyrgyzstan is the main one for the leadership of Tajikistan - force or diplomatic?
Rahmon has clearly shown that he does not want to act by force. One can accept the opinion that Tajikistan has prepared for the last conflict, which occurred in April 2021, but Dushanbe probably wants to avoid further escalation for many reasons. Including because of the difficult situation in Afghanistan.
In addition, the conflict between Dushanbe and Bishkek will be unacceptable for Russia and China, the main investors in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Plus, Tajikistan at one time suffered greatly from the civil war and therefore the country's president understands that full-scale military action is not an easy and pleasant walk. The Kyrgyz will fight, the Tajiks will fight. People will die.
The President of Tajikistan, who stopped civil strife in his country, understands very well how difficult it will be to end the war if it starts. I believe that Tajikistan politically does not want war, and even more so Kyrgyzstan.
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