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2021-06-13 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
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Why did Putin speak harshly to the United States?
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Direct Translation of the article. Edited
by Alexander Khaldei
[Regnum] Russian analysts, impressed by the new intonations with which Vladimir Putin spoke about the "red lines" for the West in Ukraine, note the harsh notes first sounded by the usually gentle and diplomatic Russian president.
Continued from Page 4
In an interview with Russia 1 TV, Putin, mildly, but more directly than usual, pointed out that Ukraine's NATO membership was unacceptable for Russia, and the deployment of American missiles of any range there would trigger retaliatory actions.
Moreover, Putin made it clear that this is so unacceptable that it should not be surprising if Russia this time does not confine itself to expressing extreme concern. Diplomatic clichés will not be applied, the army will be used. It was not said directly, but it was said in such a way that it was impossible not to understand it.
The West, realizing that Russia can sway for a very long time, but then quickly advances, rapidly advancing deep into the enemy's territory, the signal understood. This is best represented not in the State Department, but in the Pentagon. But Putin harshly responded to Blinken, who bluntly said on the eve of the summit of the two presidents that the United States welcomes Ukraine's membership in NATO and will do everything possible to contribute to this.
In fact, Blinken was creating a strong negotiating position for Biden by announcing this. Putin had to start thinking about what to prepare for him in the form of concessions for the United States to slow down on this topic.
Putin made it clear that he sees a provocation and does not take the bait. Not only will there be no concessions - if the conversation about this from a bluff turns into a real plane, Russia will immediately put everything in its place. Russia will not play with the topic of Ukraine's membership in NATO, this is not a subject of negotiations, but a casus belli.
But apart from what Putin said, everyone paid attention to how he said it. He made a little more direct expression than usual. In the world of politicians of the caliber of Putin, this is already considered unusual toughness.
There are only two politicians in the world whose slight change in tone is perceived as a serious threat. These are Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. In the United States, the last two presidents no longer cause such an attitude. Their words are lightweight, and their intonations mean nothing at all.
Why did Putin speak in a different tone? After all, the topic of Ukraine's membership in NATO has been used by the United States more than once to intimidate Russia. But for the first time, the head of Russia responded in such a way that it was perceived as harshness. What happened?
And everything is very simple. Russia has completed the first string of Nord Stream 2. The United States was defeated in the first line of defense and retreated to the second echelon. It was not possible to cancel the commissioning of the gas pipeline, but they began to impose negotiations on the EU and Germany in order to force them to demand from Russia a very long-term agreement on transit through Ukraine. Or pay her the lost money ourselves.
Germany, while the pipeline is not completed, shows a willingness to discuss American requirements. But everyone understands that promising does not mean getting married. The Germans want to chatter the American proposals until they bring the matter to the stage where they can say that the Americans are incapable of negotiation and withdraw from the negotiations.
And so Blinken and Biden are in a hurry. The NATO summit before the Putin-Biden summit was started in order to put pressure on Germany and Russia now that almost everything has been done at the SP-2, but they have not yet begun to prepare the ground infrastructure.
In general, Biden has a deadline until the end of 2021. If by that time Germany is not bent over and Russia is not frightened, the defeat of the United States in Ukraine will cause a giant tectonic wave around the world. The United States was unable to hold on to the most important geopolitical region. How will China, India, North Korea, Iran behave in this case, how will Brazil, Argentina and South Africa begin to talk, where will Japan drift? What conclusions will Israel make? There is no need to speak at all about the behavior of Germany, France and Russia.
It is in this context that Blinken makes direct statements about Ukraine's accession to NATO, Zelensky interprets them as support, and then Biden disavows Zelensky's words, saying that he misunderstood everything. This is Putin's nervousness in the expectation of making him rush and make mistakes.
And it is in this context that Putin, for the first time, allows notes that were not allowed before. It not only beats off the trump card that Blinken went with, it increases the pace and deprives the United States of time, forcing it to rush. Putin's manifested position affects Ukraine, Germany, France and China. The US must take the next step without calculating it properly. It can cost them dearly.
It is clear that as the SP-2 goes into operation, Putin's tone will become less and less lapidary. The United States rushed about, jumping between threats and bribery. The Biden administration wants to know what to do next.
Experts have said more than once that as the construction of the SP-2 is completed, Russia will get untied hands and begin to act more freely. Everyone understood this, both in Poland, and in Ukraine, and in Europe, and in the United States. And here is how V. Tsoi sang:
"I was waiting for this time, and now this time has come,
those who were silent ceased to be silent,
those who have nothing to wait sit in the saddle,
they cannot be caught up. Can't catch up anymore."
Germany could promise Biden to ask Russia to continue pumping gas through Ukraine. Germany will not demand this under the threat of giving up gas at all - this is not why the SP-2 was built. Germany worries about itself, not the United States or Ukraine. Therefore, Germany has little room for maneuver. Asked to ask - will ask.
Russia will promise to keep transit through Ukraine. With all my heart - in the volume of 10 billion cubic meters - despite the fact that the zero cost of the Ukrainian pipe comes at 30 billion cubic meters per year. Russia may even hit the ground with a hat and tear off 20 billion cubic meters a year from itself. This drowns Ukraine more than a complete stop of the pipe. Russia and 30 can give. This is a work to zero. As they say, take it and do not deny yourself anything.
The United States will demand pumping from 40 to 60 billion cubic meters. As the saying goes, "he will eat something, but who will give him." The volumes of the SP-2 will be contracted for the long term, and there is no reason for Germany to fight for Ukraine. The fact that the EU will not give money to Ukraine does not go to the fortuneteller at all - there is not enough for your own spinognips.
So Putin, demonstrating new intonations towards Ukraine, or rather the United States, makes it clear that he sees where the process is going and does not intend to change its direction and speed. For the first time, a situation has arisen when the United States (including China) has a higher point of need than Russia, and there are alternatives, but one is worse than the other.
Biden says the US is back in Europe. But they did not return with money, but with ultimatums. European businesses don't like this.
But Russia just came to Europe with money. This is a completely different matter, and therefore the attitude of the business towards it is completely different.
In Russia under the USSR, nomenklatura experts joked that the doors to the necessary offices were opened with their feet when their hands were full. America is opening the door in the wrong place in Europe. In her position with the legs, it is wrong to do it. So what tone should Putin use to talk to the United States if they have lost their adequacy so much that they cannot even realize it?
Alexander Khaldei is a consultant in conflict resolution 
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