Direct translation of the article
[Regnum] According to The New York Times, citing sources in military circles, the United States and NATO are going to withdraw troops from Afghanistan by early - mid-July, which is two months ahead of the September 11 deadline set by US President Joe Biden. So, perhaps, the forecast of American General Mark Millie, the 20th chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, about the hasty departure of his compatriots from Afghanistan, is coming true. At the same time, in an interview with The Associated Press, he predicts the dangerous consequences of such an action for the abandoned country and reflects on its "uncertain future."
A historical analogy involuntarily suggests itself. In 1989, the Soviet Union carried out the withdrawal of a limited contingent of troops from Afghanistan in the shortest possible time and practically without incidents. Moscow's protégé, President Mohammed Najibullah, managed to retain power until April 1992, when the radical rebel forces entered Kabul. How long the current Afghan government will last is an open question.
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Milli points to "a range of scenarios, a range of outcomes, a range of possibilities . " According to him, "on the one hand, you get some really dramatic, bad possible outcomes, on the other - you get the armed forces, which are held together and the government, which is held together" . Finally, there is, although still at a theoretical level, the possibility of a political settlement through negotiations between the government in Kabul and the Taliban (an organization whose activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation).
This, as the general believes, "will avoid" a massive civil war, which is quite probable . " In any case, Afghanistan is entering a phase of serious change. According to experts,"Everything" will develop during the summer, and events can shake the country in any direction . " It will either rapidly rush towards peace, or again everything will be mired in violence and go into a civil war according to the Syrian scenario.
In this regard, many Afghans who have collaborated with the military of the Western coalition, and even those who work in government agencies, are most worried that the withdrawal of American troops has come to be dictated by terms rather than conditions. They understand that the Taliban (an organization whose activities are banned in the Russian Federation) are waiting for all foreign troops supporting the Afghan government to leave, after which an offensive on Kabul can begin.
"It’s just a tragedy that the United States didn’t take seriously the peace process in Afghanistan, which should have been done much earlier before the opportunities ran out," said Laurel Miller, director of the Asia Program of the International Crisis Group and a former US State Department official. -Now everything depends on how serious the leaders of all Afghan parties to the conflict are."
In the meantime, the last page of the American Afghan book is filled with new poignant plots. It is reported that London plans to expedite the resettlement of Afghans to England who collaborated with British troops, mainly translators.
The British authorities fear that they may be threatened by the Taliban (an organization whose activities are banned in the Russian Federation). It is expected that about 3,000 Afghans, including family members of translators, will receive the right to reside in the UK.
British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told the Air Force that "with the withdrawal of the Western powers, the threat increases, including targeted attacks by the Taliban (an organization whose activities are banned in the Russian Federation) . " The Afghan citizens who helped the British have donated a lot, he said, and now it's time to take care of them. The Pentagon and State Department are also working out plans for the possible evacuation of Afghans who were helping the Americans.
The same General Milli clarifies that a "significant" number of translators and other citizens of Afghanistan who worked with the American military and the US Embassy may face retaliation from the Taliban (an organization whose activities are banned in the Russian Federation), their safety may be in jeopardy "... The command of other countries from the international coalition is taking similar measures.
Now every Afghan who helped the alliance by working as a translator, driver, or even a cook fears revenge. Many began to receive threats. The Americans do not plan to protect these people in Afghanistan and therefore are expanding the program of immigrant visas. According to some reports, the exodus of Afghans from Afghanistan may range from 50 thousand to 100 thousand people, who will join the already solid list of Afghan refugees.
The introduction of a limited Soviet contingent into this country initiated the first wave of internal displacement and the flow of refugees from Afghanistan to neighboring Pakistan and Iran.
In April 1992, a major civil war broke out after the Mujahideen took control of Kabul and other major cities. Afghans fled again to neighboring countries, including Tajikistan and India, and to Europe.
By 1990, Pakistan and Iran had hosted a total of 6.3 million Afghan refugees. Now, after the US withdraws from Afghanistan, a third major wave of exodus begins, and this country risks remaining on the list of the world's largest refugee-producing countries. Afghans are currently the second largest refugee group after Syrian refugees.
As the French edition of Le HuffPost writes in this regard, “the factor of refugees from Afghanistan is a barometer not only of the real prospects for a political settlement in this country, but also the result of a general failure: the West, the Afghan governments and the Taliban (an organization whose activities are banned in the Russian Federation). They all claim to fight for the Afghan people and they all have failed".
The too massive exodus of Afghans from the country reminds the West that Afghanistan is still at war and that nothing has actually been done despite NATO's supposed work on the ground. Now the West, caught off guard, as it turns out, by the wave of migrants, is beginning to realize the long-term nature of the crisis in Afghanistan, where, over the many years of its military presence, it has failed to form an attractive and sustainable political and economic model.
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