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2021-04-08 Africa Subsaharan
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Mozambique: Refugee crisis clouds army gains against Islamist insurgents
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[DW] Mozambican forces claim to have retaken the ransacked town of Palma from armed Islamist fighters. Despite this success, a glaring refugee crisis looms as regional bodies dither on providing military support.
| "Once the town is essentially ransacked of supplies, banks have been sacked, food supplies have been taken, then the bully boyz tend to kind of melt away." |
Commander Chongo Vidigal, leader of military operations to regain control of Palma, told state television
... and if you can't believe state television who can you believe?
TVM that a "significant" number of bandidos bully boyz had since been killed in the fighting and that the area was now "safe." He, however, stopped short of declaring that the army had regained complete control.
Continued from Page 2
"There was always strong perceptions that the Sunni bad boy group was not necessarily that intent on actually holding Palma," Ryan Cummings, director for Africa-focused political and security risk management consultancy, Signal Risk, told DW. Cummings said the bully boyz were unwilling to utilize what would have been significant human resources, equipment, and other resources to stave off a counter-insurgency operation by the Mozambican government.
Locals pursuing longstanding grievances, borrowing the trappings of jihad to make themselves look more meaningful... and more terrifying. They have many names, but the most common in news reports are Islamic State Central Africa Province-Mozambique (ISCAP) and, informally, Al Shabaab-Mozambique. The group appeared in 2015 with Tanzanian leadership, having hired members of Somali Al Shabaab to teach them jihading skillz. They fund themselves through heroin, contraband, the ivory trade, and the usual raiding... According to the security analyst, the government retaking Palma is potentially due to a murderous Moslem group's strategic retreat. "Once the town is essentially ransacked of supplies, banks have been sacked, food supplies have been taken, then the bully boyz tend to kind of melt away."
The razzia, raiding for plunder, slaves, and to spread terror in preparation for actual conquest sometime later, is a favored jihadi tactic. FEARS OF TRAPPED REFUGEES
On Tuesday, the UN High Commission for Refugees said its teams in the Mozambican town of Pemba had received reports that over 1,000 people fleeing Mozambique and trying to enter Tanzania were not allowed to cross the border to seek asylum.
Thousands of people fled into the surrounding forest when Islamic State
 ...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that they were al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're really very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling Allah around with every other sentence, but to hear western pols talk they're not really Moslems....
-linked bandidos bully boyz launched attacks on the northeastern town of Palma on March 24, ransacking buildings and beheading civilians.
Stranded in the bush with little access to food or water, some of the escapees headed south, but others walked north to the Tanzanian border. The UN reports, "new arrivals are women and kiddies with few belongings, most showing signs of severe trauma following the atrocities they witnessed."
Meanwhile,
...back at the wrecked scow, Agent 49 felt gingerly for his head. It was still there. He had been hoping differently...
in the southern Tanzanian border town of Mtwara, residents are fearful their Tanzanian relatives in Mozambique are in danger and want their government to repatriate them.
Rukia Ngomeke, a Mtwara resident, has relatives in Mozambique. She says she has lost contact with them since violence broke out. "At the cop shoppe, we are told to wait until the refugees are interrogated, and the security officials are convinced they are okay. Then they send their names to immigration for further investigation to find out if they went to Mozambique legally or they went there to hide."
Another resident, Issa Salum, wants the army and police to beef up their presence in Mtwara. "Where we are heading to is not good," he told DW.
NEIGHBORS WARY OF SENDING TROOPS
The growing crisis is beginning to force Tanzania, which has so far been reluctant to launch its own military action against the holy warriors, to act — something the late president John Magufuli shied away from.
"Any engagement by Tanzania in the northern Mozambique crisis would suggest Tanzanian territories were potentially being used as either logistical and operational base for this insurgence,"
...we haven’t seen that claim, but some sources say the leadership cadre of Al Shabaab-Mozambique is Tanzanian... Cummings said. "But if there is enough pressure and leverage from the African Union
...a union consisting of 53 African states, most run by dictators of one flavor or another. The only all-African state not in the AU is Morocco. Established in 2002, the AU is the successor to the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), which was even less successful...
and other international players, we could potentially see Tanzania playing a more active role in the conflict." The Tanzanian government knows any potential engagement carries the risk of punitive violence against Tanzania, given its proximity to the main conflict zone, Cummings added.
There are also fears in South Africa that sending troops to Cabo Delgado could result in retaliatory attacks within its own borders.
"The Islamic State stated in September last year basically threatening that any country that was going to deploy their forces from within the SADC region would risk punitive attacks. Specifically, South Africa was referenced in that regard." Cummings said.
While it is unclear which nationalities make up the holy warrior numbers in northern Mozambique, South African nationals are among them.
IS MOZAMBIQUE UNWILLING TO ACCEPT MILITARY HELP?
The Mozambican army's ability to fight the insurgency has long been questioned, with analysts pointing to poor training and lack of equipment. Security forces have been bolstered by a South African private military company, Dyck Advisory Group (DAG), but its contract with the government has ended. DAG founder Lionel Dyck confirmed their involvement ended on April 6, adding that it was "unlikely" soldiers had retaken Palma.
South Africa, which has a relatively strong military presence in the region, announced it was sending defense troops to Mozambique to repatriate citizens caught in the conflict.
"The perception of any state is the minute you accept foreign forces on your soil, your national illusory sovereignty has been compromised," analyst Cummings told DW. He said the Mozambican government does not want to appear as if it "cannot guarantee Mozambique's territorial integrity without the assistance of foreign partners."
According to the UN, more than 11,000 civilians are known to have fled Palma in recent days, and the conflict in northern Mozambique has displaced over 700,000 people.
In just three years, an Islamist insurgency in northern Mozambique has killed an estimated 2,600 people. 
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Posted by trailing wife 2021-04-08 00:00||
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File under: al-Shabaab (IS-Mozambique)
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