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2021-02-22 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
WSJ - We'll Have Herd Immunity by April
[WSJ] Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.

There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.

Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop "memory" once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—90 years later—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies.

Researchers at Sweden’s Karolinska Institute found that the percentage of people mounting a T-cell response after mild or asymptomatic Covid-19 infection consistently exceeded the percentage with detectable antibodies. T-cell immunity was even present in people who were exposed to infected family members but never developed symptoms. A group of U.K. scientists in September pointed out that the medical community may be under-appreciating the prevalence of immunity from activated T-cells.

Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.

In my own conversations with medical experts, I have noticed that they too often dismiss natural immunity, arguing that we don’t have data. The data certainly doesn’t fit the classic randomized-controlled-trial model of the old-guard medical establishment. There’s no control group. But the observational data is compelling.

I have argued for months that we could save more American lives if those with prior Covid-19 infection forgo vaccines until all vulnerable seniors get their first dose. Several studies demonstrate that natural immunity should protect those who had Covid-19 until more vaccines are available. Half my friends in the medical community told me: Good idea. The other half said there isn’t enough data on natural immunity, despite the fact that reinfections have occurred in less than 1% of people—and when they do occur, the cases are mild.

But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. Vaccines also don’t explain the steep decline in January. Vaccination rates were low and they take weeks to kick in.

My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts. But it’s also based on direct observation of how hard testing has been to get, especially for the poor. If you live in a wealthy community where worried people are vigilant about getting tested, you might think that most infections are captured by testing. But if you have seen the many barriers to testing for low-income Americans, you might think that very few infections have been captured at testing centers. Keep in mind that most infections are asymptomatic, which still triggers natural immunity.

Many experts, along with politicians and journalists, are afraid to talk about herd immunity. The term has political overtones because some suggested the U.S. simply let Covid rip to achieve herd immunity. That was a reckless idea. But herd immunity is the inevitable result of viral spread and vaccination. When the chain of virus transmission has been broken in multiple places, it’s harder for it to spread—and that includes the new strains.

Herd immunity has been well-documented in the Brazilian city of Manaus, where researchers in the Lancet reported the prevalence of prior Covid-19 infection to be 76%, resulting in a significant slowing of the infection. Doctors are watching a new strain that threatens to evade prior immunity. But countries where new variants have emerged, such as the U.K., South Africa and Brazil, are also seeing significant declines in daily new cases. The risk of new variants mutating around the prior vaccinated or natural immunity should be a reminder that Covid-19 will persist for decades after the pandemic is over. It should also instill a sense of urgency to develop, authorize and administer a vaccine targeted to new variants.

Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices.

Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of "The Price We Pay."

Posted by Besoeker 2021-02-22 07:07|| || Front Page|| [4 views ]  Top

#1 However, we have been told by many experts that there will be no such thing.
Posted by M. Murcek 2021-02-22 07:38||   2021-02-22 07:38|| Front Page Top

#2 By April, most senior citizens (and those with vulnerabilities) should be vaccinated. The rest will either not even feel any symptoms or only experience mild ones.

The virus is not likely to mutate into a killer machine. It wants to survive, too.
Posted by European Conservative 2021-02-22 07:54||   2021-02-22 07:54|| Front Page Top

#3 My contact in St. Petersburg stays indoors because of the high morbidity there at this time. No social gatherings. No photos. She writes her poetry. Cuts her own hair with old scissors. Very cold there and lots of snow. Sad times.
Posted by Dale 2021-02-22 08:00||   2021-02-22 08:00|| Front Page Top

#4 I for many years have refused the vaccines offered.I have worked many years and have not been sick. Never missed a day of scheduled work. I will continue as I have done with no fear or trepidation. I am in contact every day with many people, front line as they say. I do not live in fear. I seize the day.
Posted by Dale 2021-02-22 08:07||   2021-02-22 08:07|| Front Page Top

#5 "The Price We Pay." No, I am free of such thought's.
Posted by Dale 2021-02-22 08:09||   2021-02-22 08:09|| Front Page Top

#6 Reviewing my Worldometers spreadsheet, it seems everything peaked in early January. Deaths did have a huge spike Feb. 13 (6,869) but "Serious/Critical" (ICU) is 55% of the peak in early January.

Light at the end of Joe's 'dark winter' tunnel? Or -
Posted by Bobby 2021-02-22 08:49||   2021-02-22 08:49|| Front Page Top

#7 These "experts" in general are profoundly ignorant of what immunity to COVID-19 means, and don't know how to measure it until long after the fact. We'll know what "herd immunity" to COVID-19 amounts to, I estimate, a couple of years after the amount of new cases bottom lines. We won't know it until after it happens. YMMV.
Posted by Knuckles Fluper5134 2021-02-22 14:11||   2021-02-22 14:11|| Front Page Top

#8 The other half said there isn’t enough data
The "other half" always wants more data. They will only stop objecting to contrary conclusions after the pandemic is done and gone. Long gone.
Posted by Knuckles Fluper5134 2021-02-22 14:13||   2021-02-22 14:13|| Front Page Top

#9 You will obey St. Fauci and you will like it.

Notice that pig is suddenly in videos supporting the "great reset"? Hmmm.
Posted by Clem 2021-02-22 14:16||   2021-02-22 14:16|| Front Page Top

#10 Keep in mind that most infections are asymptomatic, which still triggers natural immunity. We really don't know what "natural immunity" is, so he is overstating his case. For example the high degree of immunity demonstrated by the under age 18 demographic is not understood and has not been explained. Most likely most COVID-19 infections trigger natural immunity, is all I would say at present.
Posted by Knuckles Fluper5134 2021-02-22 14:18||   2021-02-22 14:18|| Front Page Top

#11 The math is rather obvious: 30 million or so confirmed cases, 30 million or more inoculations with another million a day being added. That's 20% of the population, concentrated in the most vulnerable.

Add to that possibly 2x the cases that were asymptomatic and who are carrying T-cell immunity, so another 60 million unreported.

Thats approaching half the US population, with the most vulnerable becoming immune. Most of the remaining are less likely to have anything more than a cold-like or light flu-like symtoms.

The math has been obvious. 99.5* or more survive, most without extreme illness.

What Trump did work. What Governors like DeSantis (Florida) and Abbot (Texas) did work - quarantine and protect the vulnerable, especially the elderly and those in nursing homes, apply localized control for masking and shutdowns only when the case rate jumps to a threatening level.

Of course this blows Fauci, Biden, and the Establishment health industry-government goons out of the water, and it breaks the control freaks' narratives on the left and in government, so the press will never let go of it. They can't possibly have Trump and Republicans being right, and they can't let people become "uncontrolled".
Posted by Deadeye Jaiting7534 2021-02-22 19:44||   2021-02-22 19:44|| Front Page Top

#12 And FYI, Dr Markey is not the first one to come out with this analysis. Several others, epidemiologists, predicted it based on their observations of asymptomatic transmission, a lack of testing, overdependence on "confirmed" data, overdependence on antibody based immunity tests for something that's T-cell mediated (because antibodies are cheap and easy, even if they are not accurate nor completely indicative/applicable), and many other ignored factors. Politics blinded science - just look at Fauci saying you don't need masks, then yes you do, then not really effective, then mandated, then you need 2 masks... not a shred scientifically irrefutable empirical evidence to back up ANY of his statements. Yet the press lionized that hack.

The remarkable thing is how quickly multiple effective vaccines were developed and tested, and how rapidly and widespread their production and distribution is -- once the government got the hell out of the way except in a minimal fashion.

So be thankful, and if you are high risk get your vaccine as soon as you can, and then throw the damned masks away 3 weeks after your final dose, and go out to a restaurant.
Posted by Deadeye Jaiting7534 2021-02-22 19:58||   2021-02-22 19:58|| Front Page Top

#13 Dale, you are right when you say you "dont have a thought" - the Price we Pay was a book about ripoff medical costs, and how insurance and hospital corporations are screwing us. I disagree with Mackey's intent toward government solutions, but he isn't wrong when it comes to price gouging and irrational limitations on care by the medical and insurance establishment with the government enforcing it.
Posted by Deadeye Jaiting7534 2021-02-22 20:01||   2021-02-22 20:01|| Front Page Top

13:40 M. Murcek
13:39 Whiskey Mike
13:36 Dale
13:20 irish+rage+boy
13:16 Grom the Reflective
13:16 DarthVader
12:58 trailing wife









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