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2020-11-03 Home Front: Politix

CBS Admits Trump Can Win With Expected Election Day Surge

[WIRE] CBS News reported Sunday evening that, despite the onslaught of mainstream polls outlining otherwise, President Donald Trump could win re-election on Tuesday night if he gets the turnout that is expected come Election Day.

The news network noted of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s suspected lead with early voting in key states while emphasizing that Trump supporters are far more likely to turn out on Election Day, which they likened to a "Republican-surge scenario."

"Joe Biden heads into Election Day preferred by voters who have already cast their ballots early. President Trump has a lead among those who plan to show up on November 3," CBS said.

"We estimate from our polling that Mr. Trump is doing, on average, over 30 percentage points better among likely Election-Day voters than early voters. We know the approximate size of the early vote so far, and we vary the potential size of the Election-Day vote to explore two scenarios," the network explained. "In our Republican-surge scenario, the size of the Election-Day vote is relatively large, so given that these voters break for Mr. Trump, it mitigates Biden’s early-vote edge, and Mr. Trump inches out close wins in enough states to go over 270. (We increased the size of the Election-Day vote by an average of seven points in this scenario, while keeping vote preference among early voters and Election-Day voters fixed.)"

Here’s what the map would look like in the Republican Election Day "surge" scenario, per CBS:

Posted by Besoeker 2020-11-03 01:30|| || Front Page|| [11129 views ] Top

#1 By 'expected election day surge' they mean normal voters, not the traditional Dem constituencies like a cemetery full of dead people, convicted felons and forged mail-in ballots.

Posted by Raj 2020-11-03 07:31|| 2020-11-03 07:31|| Front Page Top

#2 This explains why NJ has said the election day in person votes won't be counted until 10 days after so they can count the late mail votes first.

Posted by Mercutio 2020-11-03 09:20|| 2020-11-03 09:20|| Front Page Top

#3 New Jersey has 14 Electorial votes. Could make a difference, probably not. I'll wager Trumps wins a lot of states' early vote.

Posted by Vespasian Ebboting9735 2020-11-03 13:53|| 2020-11-03 13:53|| Front Page Top

#4 October: Polls: Biden Pulling Away; Lead Grows to Double Digits

Nov. 1: Nate S.: Trump Might Win 1 or 2 Battlegrounds but Biden Still Heavy Favorite

Nov. 3: Insiders: Republican Surge May Mean Trump Inches Out Close Wins

Nov. 4: Election Results: Experts Stunned By Astonishing Trump Victory

Posted by Phaiting Jolurt8046 2020-11-03 14:21|| 2020-11-03 14:21|| Front Page Top

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