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2020-10-10 Home Front: Politix

NR via HotAir
Maybe all the polls are wrong and all the news is fake.

But probably not.

With President Donald Trump behind — and falling — in both the national and swing-state polls, many conservative media figures are predicting . . . a Trump landslide. This wish-casting is based on increasingly imaginative reading of the political terrain: Comedian Jimmy Failla of Fox News, for example, called a Trump "lawnslide" based on — hold your breath, now — an informal poll of truckers who were giving their estimates of the ratio of Trump yard signs to Joe Biden yard signs.

Well.

Representative David Rouzer (R., N.C.) is on record predicting Trump’s reelection "in a landslide." Charlie Kirk of Turning Point makes the preposterous argument that Trump will be carried to victory by the "unbelievable enthusiasm" for him among young people. "Joe Biden is really struggling with younger voters," Kirk says — never mind that Biden’s lead among young likely voters is 33 points. Jeanine Pirro of Fox News insists that the recent anti-police protests and riots "ensure President Trump’s reelection." Ensure is a pretty strong word. "Trump Will Win Again in 2020"

...Strange things happen, and "statistically unlikely" is not a synonym for "impossible." But the story of Donald Trump’s underground landslide is not serious analysis — it is wishful thinking for fun and profit.

One of the deathless myths of the 2016 election is that the polls were wildly off. They weren’t, neither at the national level nor at the state level, though the national polls were a little closer to the final tally than the state polls were, as historically has been the case. In fact, the national polls in 2016 were slightly more accurate than they were in 2012. The difference is that in 2012 the polls understated the vote for the candidate who was expected to win and did, while in 2016 they understated, by a slightly smaller margin, the performance of the candidate who was expected to lose but didn’t. But from a polling point of view, a five-point error is a five-point error; the fact that one error produces the right "call" is, as a technical polling matter, not especially important.

...And that is why the fruitier Trump partisans are relying on call-in trucker yard-sign polls or simply recruiting "the American people" and "the silent majority" to their cause without much evidence.

Some of this is honest stupidity, but most of it is careerism. Pouring scorn on the polls and on unwelcome news reports, predicting a Trump landslide with very little hard evidence to back up that wishful thinking, and, above all, reassuring conservatives that our ideas are more popular than they actually are, that the vast majority of Americans are on our side even if they don’t seem to know it, is a good way to build audience share and a social-media following. And if — as is likely though not certain — this is revealed on Election Day as a fraud and a fantasy, then you can always complain that the election was rigged and that the Deep State has done you wrong. Those doggie vitamins aren’t going to sell themselves.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-10-10 03:53|| || Front Page|| [11132 views ] Top

#1 Kevin Williamson, rabid anti-Trumper, has been wrong for 4 years and counting. Went over to the dark side and got cast out.

Posted by Hupolurong Speasing3559 2020-10-10 07:43|| 2020-10-10 07:43|| Front Page Top

#2 I’m sensing a landslide.

Exhibit 1. Trump is campaigning in battleground states and states Hillary won while Biden is campaigning in states Hillary won.

Posted by Rjschwarz 2020-10-10 08:39|| 2020-10-10 08:39|| Front Page Top

#3

Trump Landslide only depends on 2 items.

If we have an honest E-Voter & V-Voter count and the fraudulent ballots are intercepted and they impounded as evidence.

The several already known by the Gray-hats locations that are printing counterfeit Mail in / Absentee Ballots are raided by the FED's in the next few days.

Posted by NN2N1 2020-10-10 08:39|| 2020-10-10 08:39|| Front Page Top

#4 Here in purple Colorado, Trump signs dominate. Pro-American rallies dominate except in downtown Denver itself. Seen only one Biden sign up in Lakewood and a few bumper stickers. See Trump signs everywhere I go.

Anecdotal, yes. But the enthusiasm for Trump is over the top and just a giant "Meh" for Biden.

Trump voters will be there, in force on election day and the supposed blue wave in mail in ballots don't seem to be materializing from the limited data the states are releasing. Both parties are neck and neck in sending theirs in.

I still feel a landslide is coming and I truly believe it is the only thing that will stop a full civil war. Will still be violence, but the Republic will survive.

Posted by DarthVader 2020-10-10 09:40|| 2020-10-10 09:40|| Front Page Top

#5 I know what I think, but that's not really the question here. It's what other people think. What will the socialists do with power?

The ones who have been calling for murder and re-education of Trump supporters. The ones who have been burning down dem cities for months and shut the country and economy down for what are increasingly dubious motivations.

I don't think it comes down to discomfort over something mean that was said to Ms Acosta. I think the man who has stood up to China, gotten some foothold for peace in the ME, gotten energy independence and maintains a reverence for American history and tradition vs a mob that foams at the mouth for national destruction. Worse yet without any known alternative.

Posted by Cesare 2020-10-10 10:55|| 2020-10-10 10:55|| Front Page Top

#6 Anecdotal, yes. But the enthusiasm for Trump is over the top and just a giant "Meh" for Biden.

I think this is the key to the whole thing.

Posted by Abu Uluque 2020-10-10 11:39|| 2020-10-10 11:39|| Front Page Top

#7 Did I miss NR's wall-to-wall anti-Trump edition this time around? Pity.

Posted by Raj 2020-10-10 13:51|| 2020-10-10 13:51|| Front Page Top

#8 Solid (not deep but 70-75% pro-) blue area here and a grand total of 4 Biden signs out of maybe 150 houses

= Dem Fail

Posted by Glusoth Phase6674 2020-10-10 13:56|| 2020-10-10 13:56|| Front Page Top

#9 #7 Did I miss NR's wall-to-wall anti-Trump edition this time around? Pity.

They're busy working on their triple-sized "Making the Conservative Case For Smashing The Kulaks As A Class" extravaganza.

Special guest editors Jennifer Rubin and Van Jones promise that it will be a lulu!

Posted by charger 2020-10-10 14:04|| 2020-10-10 14:04|| Front Page Top

#10 Williamson is either lying or just being a snotty NR tool. Nobody denies the 2016 national polls were more accurate than the state polls, but no intelligent and honest person gives a fuck about the national vote. It's 270 to win. Only state results matter.

And the state polls' sampling approach was ridiculously wildly biased in favor of Hillary. Of the non-online battleground state polls analyzed by the NYT upshot after the election, 5 out of 6 polls failed to even try to adjust the sample they used in order to get accurate proportions of college- and non college-educated voters. So they wildly - by four points or more - overestimated Hillary's share of the battleground state totals.

Even The NY Times can admit the state polls were garbage in 2016 and cannot be relied on to weight their samples correctly. Why can't Kevin Williamson admit this?

Posted by Spuque Bucket1831 2020-10-10 14:10|| 2020-10-10 14:10|| Front Page Top

#11 NR is like NeverTrump Central. for so-called conservatives, they sure dont mind propping up and promoting Marxists and socialists. Wm F. Buckley is reaching about 10,000 RPM in his grave right now, probably going to redline soon.

Posted by Theager Borgia1057 2020-10-10 14:25|| 2020-10-10 14:25|| Front Page Top

#12 Allahpundit probably had it auto-forwarded.

Posted by swksvolFF 2020-10-10 19:20|| 2020-10-10 19:20|| Front Page Top

09:43 Mullah Richard
09:27 Warthog
09:11 Mercutio
09:07 AlmostAnonymous5839
08:52 Matt
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07:43 Procopius2k
07:42 BrerRabbit
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07:34 trailing wife
07:31 Procopius2k
07:30 NN2N1
07:22 NN2N1
07:18 trailing wife
07:14 Richard Aubrey
07:10 NN2N1
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06:58 Besoeker