The reason New York failed to "flatten the curve" and Sweden succeeded probably has little to do with lockdowns...
Coronavirus deaths have slowed to a crawl in Sweden. With the exception of a single death on July 13, no deaths in this nation of 10 million have been reported since July 10.
But the debate over Sweden's approach to the COVID-19 pandemic, which relied on individual responsibility instead of government coercion to maintain social distancing, is far from over.
Last week, The New York Times labeled Sweden's approach to the pandemic a "cautionary tale" for the rest of the world, claiming it "yielded a surge of deaths without sparing its economy from damage."
To be accurate, Sweden has outperformed many nations around the world with its "lighter touch" approach and was one of the few nations in Europe to see its economy grow in the first quarter of 2020.
Meanwhile, Anders Tegnell, Sweden's top infectious disease expert, continues to defend his nation's approach to the pandemic.
Sweden has become a global lightning rod, but this has less to do with the results of its policies than the nature of its policies.
While Sweden's death toll is indeed substantially higher than neighbors such as Finland, Norway, and Denmark, it's also much lower than several other European neighbors such as Belgium, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Spain.
Indeed, a simple comparison between Belgium and Sweden‐nations with rather similar populations‐reveals that Belgium suffered far worse than Sweden from the coronavirus.
Comparing the epidemic curve in Belgium (11.5m pop), which locked down early on 17 Mar, and Sweden (10.2m pop), with no lockdown. Chart depicts deaths by date of occurrence, with Sweden per capita adjusted. Total per million: Belgium (844); Sweden (547). pic.twitter.com/W7u5pCQ8MV
— Paul Yowell (@pwyowell) July 11, 2020
The reason Sweden is a "cautionary tale" and Belgium is not is because Belgium followed the script. Early in the pandemic, Belgian officials closed all non-essential business and enforced strict social distancing rules. 
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