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2020-05-29 Science & Technology
Why Does the CDC Think the COVID-19 Fatality Rate Is So Low, and Why Won't It Tell Anyone?
NR via Instapundit
Last week I was searching the Internet for some COVID-19 statistic or other, and I came across a new CDC website. The site featured some numbers the federal government is using to model the spread of the epidemic. One in particular caught my eye: 0.4 percent, the "current best estimate" of the disease’s "case fatality rate." The document also said that 35 percent of infections are asymptomatic, which suggests the infection fatality rate is just 0.26 percent.

These numbers struck me as low for several reasons. For one thing, the virus has already killed 0.2 percent of all New Yorkers, and obviously a much higher percentage of those who’ve actually been infected in the city. For another, if we’ve had 100,000 deaths nationwide and a CFR of 0.4 percent, that means we’ve had 25 million symptomatic cases; including cases without symptoms, more than 10 percent of the entire country has been infected, which seems out of sync with what we’re hearing from serology tests. Individual studies and reviews of the evidence tend to put the infection fatality rate somewhere around 0.5 to 1 percent, though there’s at least one dissenting review that puts it lower (while managing not to include any studies finding a fatality rate above 0.5 percent, of which there are plenty).

I put out a tweet expressing my confusion, and things spiraled quickly, as they often do on social media. A follower alerted the prominent biologist Carl Bergstrom, who wrote a thread criticizing the CDC’s numbers. The next morning he was featured in a CNN story about the issue. There have been many media reports since, with the narrative predictably varying from "Heroic Scientific Experts Hammer Corrupt CDC for Fake Low Fatality Rate" to "CDC Finally Admits COVID Is Basically Harmless." (I exaggerate, but only a little.)

I don’t have a scorching hot take on the number. But I do want to know where it comes from, which is not clear from the site itself. It says the information is based on data about a month old and names the source "Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC," which I have not been able to locate (if indeed it refers to a specific document at all).

I have contacted the CDC several times in the past week to no avail. Both the Center for Public Integrity and BuzzFeed similarly report that they sought comment and received no reply.

If the fatality rate of this thing is 0.26 percent, that is fantastic news. If the CDC has evidence this is the case, it should share it with the rest of us.
I've two theories:
(a) CDC, who are a bunch of shithead bureaucrats, surrendered to the anti-locker hysterics (who, IMO, cannot see beyond the damage to their own finances - or, in many cases simply can cope with the discomfort of lock-down. Or, worst case scenario - simply idiots who adopted a particular stance and can't admit they were wrong).
(b) CDC is acting out a deep eugenic conspiracy. Once the lock-up is over, and given that covid-hoax morons are fond of gallivanting around sans masks (probably lick door handles too), there will be a second wave - bigger than the first. And then, the screws will be tightened.
Ridiculous? No more ridiculous that the arguments (destroyed economy, millions of young lives permanently blasted, doesn't hurt people under 65) we heard here from anti-lockers.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-29 03:13|| || Front Page|| [11128 views ]  Top

#1 With the help of the media, destroy Trump's economy. Kill off his older voters. Make a crap load of money on a high priced vaccine.
Posted by Woodrow 2020-05-29 03:53||   2020-05-29 03:53|| Front Page Top

#2 Welcome to the new world order. The Devils delight. I would suggest Mad Max and Gates head up this CDC.
Posted by Dale 2020-05-29 06:20||   2020-05-29 06:20|| Front Page Top

#3 Purely my speculation: we are in the second wave of the infection. CDC either missed the first or approached it incorrectly. When they realized this they were forced to over react.

‘Why won’t they tell anyone?’ —— nobody in the GIVERnment likes to admit mistakes.
Posted by Airandee 2020-05-29 06:26||   2020-05-29 06:26|| Front Page Top

#4 Theory 3 bureaucrats love to exercise power over those they secretly wish to rule rather than serve.

They don't want to lose their sense of superiority, especially as people will be after their jobs when they find out just any more than COVID the over-reaction has killed.
Posted by Bright Pebbles 2020-05-29 06:34||   2020-05-29 06:34|| Front Page Top

#5 Scientists (ones who have been banned from YouTube and the like) expected a second wave. I suppose no surprise when healthy people get quarantined and then start going back out and interacting...like normal.
Posted by Clem 2020-05-29 07:17||   2020-05-29 07:17|| Front Page Top

#6 So now we have yet another social divide: regular, normal people and deplorable "anti-lockers". Probably the same folks who are anti-vaxxers, anti-abortion, anti-science, etc.
Posted by Bobby 2020-05-29 08:37||   2020-05-29 08:37|| Front Page Top

#7 Third theory Grom, the whole thing was a colossal cock-up based on bad data from China and bad models from Niel Fergeson that created such a fear that everyone had to go along 'in case' but then nothing panned out as projected, not even close, and it really wasn't that bad (yes every death is a tragedy) except in places where the leadership (Cuomo) made monumentally bad calls regarding nursing homes and subways.
Posted by rjschwarz 2020-05-29 09:40||   2020-05-29 09:40|| Front Page Top

#8 Meanwhile opportunists took the opportunity to reform capitalist economies and get the Feds to buy out their deficits.
Posted by rjschwarz 2020-05-29 09:41||   2020-05-29 09:41|| Front Page Top

#9 /\ A valid theory at #7.
Posted by Besoeker 2020-05-29 09:41||   2020-05-29 09:41|| Front Page Top

#10 IMHO, the CDC has no credibility in the CV-19 issue. One example: the other day, they (again) attempted to explain how long the virus can live on various surfaces. With all these choices out there, for a minute I thought I was in a a Baskin-Robbins store.....
Posted by USN, Ret. 2020-05-29 09:46||   2020-05-29 09:46|| Front Page Top

#11 The number of CV deaths divided by the number of reported cases should be getting close to the actual fatality rate by this time. I come up with something like 5% for the US, 2.5% for Texas. And at least in TX the case number includes numerous asymptomatic positives from mass testing at the local chicken plant.
Posted by Glenmore 2020-05-29 10:58||   2020-05-29 10:58|| Front Page Top

#12 #7 What I did notice, RJ, is that no place takes CV19 seriously - until it reaches them and morgues start overflowing.
Italians ignored Wuhan (because Chinese are dirty & primitive).
New York ignored Italy (because Americans are a vigorous, pioneer race - not effete Europeans).
Russia made fun of American degenerates who die like flies from flu.
Brazil felt totally safe because of their warm climate.

And, right now rural America is busy compounding statistics to convince itself that only big cities are in danger. Not sturdy country folk, who naturally maintain distance. (Except when they shop at malls, pray in churches, and shag their neighbors' wives)
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-29 11:18||   2020-05-29 11:18|| Front Page Top

#13 @g(r)omgoru

Unfortunately so. In early February, all of this could still have been easily prevented with some smart social distancing.

One idle month will cost us trillions.
Posted by European Conservative 2020-05-29 11:25||   2020-05-29 11:25|| Front Page Top

#14 ^IMO, it's just starting. See second wave in S. Korea.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-29 11:32||   2020-05-29 11:32|| Front Page Top

#15 We are somewhat better prepared to face a second wave. But restrictions will be with us for months if not years.
Posted by European Conservative 2020-05-29 11:34||   2020-05-29 11:34|| Front Page Top

#16 ^I begin to notice people in Israel, not just women, with individualized masks.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-29 11:38||   2020-05-29 11:38|| Front Page Top

#17 Here too. Some quite fashionable. People adapt.
Posted by European Conservative 2020-05-29 11:40||   2020-05-29 11:40|| Front Page Top

#18 😎
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-29 11:52||   2020-05-29 11:52|| Front Page Top

#19 Young and mobile are moving away from areas of infection or fear thereof. I spoke to a FEMA worker about this and they are aware of this. They speak of check points to reduce the flow. Early stages of this thought.
Posted by Dale 2020-05-29 12:34||   2020-05-29 12:34|| Front Page Top

#20 I guess we will find out since there’s more testing.
Posted by Klem Kadiddlehopper 2020-05-29 12:49||   2020-05-29 12:49|| Front Page Top

#21 *sets down a demi-carafe of spritzer*

Boys, mask chic went out back in March, and am curious what your fashionistas have come up with.
Posted by swksvolFF 2020-05-29 13:34||   2020-05-29 13:34|| Front Page Top

#22 Here you go
Posted by European Conservative 2020-05-29 13:39||   2020-05-29 13:39|| Front Page Top

#23 Thank you, interesting.

I know I'm not the target audience, and in my limited fashion skill I have seen worse...they need to change up the intro - reminded me of that scene at the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark when the angel rises up and turns vengeful.
Posted by swksvolFF 2020-05-29 14:17||   2020-05-29 14:17|| Front Page Top

#24 You're right about the intro
Posted by European Conservative 2020-05-29 15:00||   2020-05-29 15:00|| Front Page Top

#25 Just wear a "Trump 2020" mask, and piss the mask crowd off and shut them up at the same time.
Posted by Marilyn Tojo7566 2020-05-29 18:20||   2020-05-29 18:20|| Front Page Top

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