Article

2020-05-23 Science & Technology

Sweden still not close to herd immunity, death rate not slowing down

[JPost] - Sweden's controversial decision to keep most schools, bars, salons and restaurants open during the COVID-19 crisis while the rest of Europe shut down around could end up taking a much higher toll on the country than expected.

A study carried out by Sweden's Public Health Agency found that despite the country's relaxed distancing measures, only 7.3% of people in Stockholm have developed the antibodies necessary to fight the disease, far below the 70-90% of the population needed to achieve herd immunity.
Just a small, order of magnitude, mistake in our model. Because we are real scientists - not bureaucrat fakers like Ferguson and Fauci!
The study drew on some 1,100 tests from across the country, although only figures for Stockholm were released on Wednesday. Results from other regions would be released later, a Public Health Authority spokesperson said.
I wonder why? Because outside Stockholm they're worse?
...According to figures collated by the Our World in Data website, Sweden had 6.08 deaths per million inhabitants per day on a rolling seven-day average between May 13 and May 20.
This is the highest in the world, above the UK, Belgium and the US, which have 5.57, 4.28 and 4.11 respectively.
Hurrah for London & NY/NJ (Belgians are simply shitheads - see wikipedia)

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-23 14:07|| || Front Page|| [11132 views ] Top

#1 ..and then there is Japan.

Posted by Procopius2k 2020-05-23 15:16|| 2020-05-23 15:16|| Front Page Top

#2 ^

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-23 15:25|| 2020-05-23 15:25|| Front Page Top

#3 Herd immunity is inversely related to R-naught, yes? Measles has a R-naught of 12-18, (super contagious) and needs 92-95% for herd immunity.

COVID-19 R-naught is estimated between 1.4 - 3.9, which suggests 29% to 70% for herd immunity. Wikipedia

I've seen lower R-naught numbers than 1.4, but ain't gonna bother finding that.

Posted by Bobby 2020-05-23 15:32|| 2020-05-23 15:32|| Front Page Top

#4 My read, looking at Sweden’s curve, is that though they may not be locked down, they are strongly social distancing. Also, their numbers are distorted by excessive nursing home deaths.

Posted by KBK 2020-05-23 16:02|| 2020-05-23 16:02|| Front Page Top

#5 ^(a) R0 estimates for CV19 are based on assumptions and ideological orientation. The biggest of which is that the infection rate is biliniar (R*S*I) the old Voltera-Lotka assumption. Today we know that the true relation is better described by Beddington-DiAngelis.
(b) The concept of herd immunity is strictly theoretical one (sans immunization) - look at your own wiki article which emphasizes "temporary" for the single counter-example.
In empirical terms we know that herd immunity kicks in after we vaccinate 70 - 90 % of the population (At least in some cases the Ro is then derived by using H = 1 - 1/Ro where H fraction of immune sufficient for herd immunity. That is, you don't derive H from Ro but vise versa.)
(c) Nobody has shown yet that there is immune memory for CV19. See also (evolutionary pressure in that wiki article).

The whole story of Herd Immunity for CV19, I commented on it several times - you can find evidence for yourself with a bit of research. The true story that all* first struck countries went with idea of herd immunity (because then you don't have to do anything) and switched after hospital morgues filled up. All countries except, Sweden (who has a low population density with habits close to socially isolation already) as well as stupidity/callousness and habit of preaching ethics from the backseat of civilization.

*The one exception is Japan when their habit of wearing masks in public - no doubt upgraded during the CV19 epidemic conferred phenotypic herd immunity.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-23 16:15|| 2020-05-23 16:15|| Front Page Top

#6 I thought herd immunity was about the rate of spreading not the death rate. You could have herd immunity and contagion slowing down and still have a high death rate if the thing got into a vunerable population.

Posted by rjschwarz 2020-05-23 18:31|| 2020-05-23 18:31|| Front Page Top

#7 Sweden knew they'd have a high death rate, just hopefully for a shorter period of time. At least that's how I undestood flattening the curve.

Posted by rjschwarz 2020-05-23 18:32|| 2020-05-23 18:32|| Front Page Top

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