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2020-05-07 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
The War between Experience and Credentials
[NATIONALREVIEW] One of the most depressing aspects of the coronavirus epidemic has been the failure of the credentialed class — the alphabetic transnational and federal health organizations, the university modelers, the professional associations, and their media enablers. Their collective lapse was largely due to hubris and the assumption that titles and credentials meant they had no need to accept input and criticism from those far more engaged in the physical world — they saw no need to say, “At this time, I confess we are as confused as you are.”

In sum, the ER doctors, the nurses, and the public in general all eagerly welcomed the research of the experts. But the reverse — in which experts would listen to those with firsthand experience — was not true. The asymmetrical result is that we all have paid a terrible price in misjudging the perfidy of China; the rot within the World Health Organization; the origins, transmission, infectiousness, and lethality of the virus; and the most effective, cost-to-benefit response to the epidemic in terms of saving lives lost to the infection versus the likely even more lives lost through the response.

The problem was not just that we were supposed to accept expert, scientific, loud gospel on Monday, which grew muted and doubtful on Tuesday, and in near silence became impossible on Wednesday.

In addition, our experts learned nothing and forgot nothing, and so repeated their entire cycle of credentialed haughtiness on Thursday.
Posted by Fred 2020-05-07 00:00|| || Front Page|| [9 views ]  Top

#1 Experience always wins!
Posted by Spease Henbane8318 2020-05-07 06:06||   2020-05-07 06:06|| Front Page Top

#2 Well...ahem, harumph, do not deny brilliant Stanford epidemiologist John P.A. Ioannidis his credit.
Posted by Skidmark 2020-05-07 10:06||   2020-05-07 10:06|| Front Page Top

#3 Indeed.

What would someone like Dr. Ioannidis know about calling bullshit on experts whose published research studies are so riddled with errors as to be false 90% of the time?

Oh wait...

;-)
Posted by Lex 2020-05-07 10:47||   2020-05-07 10:47|| Front Page Top

#4 But wait, Lex! That was 15 years ago. I'm sure it's gotten much better, now!
Posted by Bobby 2020-05-07 11:15||   2020-05-07 11:15|| Front Page Top

#5 Actually, thanks to Dr Ioannidis, during the last 15 years there has developed a widespread awareness of the "replication or reproducibility crisis" in biomedical science, also economics and other research areas, to the point that a new field of metascience has arisen.

So there's hope that these bogus causal assertions can at least be spotted and nipped in the bud before they do too much damage.
Posted by Lex 2020-05-07 11:41||   2020-05-07 11:41|| Front Page Top

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