Article

2020-04-30 Europe

Sweden had no lockdown but its economy is expected to suffer just as badly as its European neighbors

[CNBC] - Sweden has attracted global attention for not imposing a full lockdown, as seen in most of Europe, to contain the coronavirus pandemic.

Nonetheless, data released from the country’s central bank and a leading Swedish think tank show that the economy will be just as badly hit as its European neighbors, if not worse.

Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, gave two possible scenarios for the economic outlook in 2020, which it said "depend on how long the spread of infection continues and on how long the restrictions implemented to slow it down are in place." Both possible economic outcomes are bleak.

In the first scenario (scenario A in the chart below), gross domestic product contracts by 6.9% in 2020 before rebounding to grow 4.6% in 2021. In a more negative prediction (scenario B), GDP could contract by 9.7% and a recovery could be slower with the economy growing 1.7% in 2021.
Well, at least they won't have to carry the burden of all these old folks on their economy.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-04-30 13:54|| || Front Page|| [11130 views ] Top

#1 Except that those forecasts are practically worthless in a situation that's changing by the day and that depends critically on policymakers' decisions which can swing wildly from one extreme to another.

Instead of useless projections, try reality and empirical facts that we have available today.

In California, lockdown central, the unemployment rate is now 22%. It's the same for the US-- about 30 million people now unemployed. We know from the Great Depression that the suicide rate is certain to spike by at least 20% in such conditions of mass misery, so expect an additional 10,000 suicides in the nation overall and at least 1,000 additional suicides in California due to the lockdown. Multiply that many times to account for the additional needless deaths of despair. Add many thousands more due to foregone surgeries.

Compare this 22% actual, real, as of this very moment unemployment rate to Sweden's unemployment rate. Even the worst forecast by the central bank in Sweden doesn't get beyond 10% unemployment in that nation.

On a per-population basis, we in the US will kill more people with this lockdown than will die from COVID in Sweden.

Posted by Lex 2020-04-30 16:11|| 2020-04-30 16:11|| Front Page Top

#2 Except that those forecasts are practically worthless in a situation that's changing by the day

Agreed.

We know from the Great Depression that the suicide rate is certain to spike by at least 20%

But the Great Depression was lasted about a decade here in the U.S., Lex, not to mention there was no unemployment insurance or Welfare to bolster negligible worker and small business savings, nor that $1200 stimulus check that so many have already received. The U.S. has been closed down about a month, and is already starting to open up again, so while there will indeed be bankruptcies and suicides, neither should be at anything close to the level seen during the Great Depression.

Posted by trailing wife 2020-04-30 17:26|| 2020-04-30 17:26|| Front Page Top

#3 ^Hear, hear.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-04-30 17:49|| 2020-04-30 17:49|| Front Page Top

#4 On a per-population basis, we in the US will kill more people with this lockdown than will die from COVID in Sweden.

Only the weak ones, Lex. Feeling feverish?

Posted by Skidmark 2020-04-30 18:02|| 2020-04-30 18:02|| Front Page Top

#5 lay off the hooch, skid

Posted by Lex 2020-04-30 18:27|| 2020-04-30 18:27|| Front Page Top

#6 Citizens are likely to become a little more patriotic in the aftermath of all this unemployment. I don't know how much the Swedish economy depends on exports but it'll take a while to get back to normal.

Posted by ruprecht 2020-04-30 19:55|| 2020-04-30 19:55|| Front Page Top

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