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2020-04-26 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
Another blow dealt to public faith in scientific models: Devine
[NYPOST] The random antibody testing of 3,000 people across the state of New York has delivered yet another blow to the faith we placed in the computer models that Governor Cuomo and President Trump used to shut down the economy and place all of America under virtual home detention.

The tests show 2.7 million in New York state have developed antibodies through exposure. Meaning, with 16,000 COVID-19 deaths, the state’s mortality rate is a little less than 0.6 percent. Nowhere near as lethal as the dire 3.4 percent death rate the World Health Organization was billing early last month, and these figures will keep changing as more data comes to hand.

And it wasn’t all because we are perfect practitioners of self-isolation and hand washing.

The President’s coronavirus (aka COVID19 or Chinese Plague)
...the twenty first century equivalent of bubonic plague, only instead of killing off a third of the population of Europe it kills 3.4 percent of those who notice they have it. It seems to be fond of the elderly, especially Iranian politicians and holy men...
 task force took into account those mitigation measures when it used an amalgam of models to predict that between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans likely would die.

A model from the University of Washington has since revised the projected corpse count to 60,000 down from an initial 162,000.

As of Friday, 51,000 Americans had bit the dust, and now the updated models are edging closer to grim reality.
Posted by Fred 2020-04-26 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11131 views ]  Top

#1 The next challenge is to re-open the economy, and Cuomo reportedly wants to spend money we don’t have on consultants, McKinsey & Co, to create — you guessed it — a computer model to tell him the best way to move forward.

It's just a crutch, you mental cripple mental defective logic-challenged man individual.
Posted by Bobby 2020-04-26 00:34||   2020-04-26 00:34|| Front Page Top

#2 ^ Truth
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-04-26 00:38||   2020-04-26 00:38|| Front Page Top

#3 Magic numbers. The Whore of Babylon.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-04-26 00:50||   2020-04-26 00:50|| Front Page Top

#4 Different denominators
Posted by KBK 2020-04-26 01:01||   2020-04-26 01:01|| Front Page Top

#5 All above 'true' but KBK always makes me laugh.
Posted by Whiskey Mike 2020-04-26 01:13||   2020-04-26 01:13|| Front Page Top

#6 The universe doesn't care that you believe.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-04-26 06:08||   2020-04-26 06:08|| Front Page Top

#7 There is something call the level of confidence. How sure are you of your models?

I'd like to remind those who keep arguing statistics in the face of model failures the old warning - crying wolf. It's an observation of human failing that hasn't change in thousands of years.
Posted by Procopius2k 2020-04-26 07:45||   2020-04-26 07:45|| Front Page Top

#8 My own, 0.999. Other people's, eh.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-04-26 07:56||   2020-04-26 07:56|| Front Page Top

#9 Magic number worshipping idiot.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-04-26 10:38||   2020-04-26 10:38|| Front Page Top

#10 ...the state’s mortality rate is a little less than 0.6 percent. Nowhere near as lethal as the dire 3.4 percent death rate the World Health Organization was billing early last month

Trump was right to pull money out of WHO.
Posted by JohnQC 2020-04-26 11:02||   2020-04-26 11:02|| Front Page Top

#11 Fearless prediction: a year from now we will analyze the data dispassionately, remove the noise, standardize the coding of fatalities, and discover that the lockdowns had next to nothing to do with the actual fatality:population rate in any given geography.
Posted by Lex 2020-04-26 11:18||   2020-04-26 11:18|| Front Page Top

#12 After the elections, this will be forgotten much like Ebola, SARS, MERS, and the seasonal flu.
Posted by Clem 2020-04-26 11:21||   2020-04-26 11:21|| Front Page Top

#13 Especially forgotten if plugz wins.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-04-26 11:28||   2020-04-26 11:28|| Front Page Top

#14 America had had 40 thousand deaths and the bodycount is inreasing by two thosusand a aday so yunless there is _big_ slowdown the 60 thousand bar should be raeched in 10 daays
Posted by JFM 2020-04-26 11:34||   2020-04-26 11:34|| Front Page Top

#15 The overreaction will cause more needless deaths than COVID actually does or could.

See NYC total fatalities this year and compare to the three prior non-COVID years. The spike in non-COVID fatalities is nearly as high as the spike that's been attributed to COVID
Posted by Lex 2020-04-26 11:38||   2020-04-26 11:38|| Front Page Top

#16 The numbers are being skewed by attributing anything and everything to CV-19 for various reasons: financial and agenda

60,000 is still gonna be hit eventually
Posted by Frank G 2020-04-26 11:38||   2020-04-26 11:38|| Front Page Top

#17 ^ this.

De-noise and standardize the data especially the coding methodology for fatalities before you conclude that country X or state Y has done a great job or an atrocious job in managing this thing.
Posted by Lex 2020-04-26 11:41||   2020-04-26 11:41|| Front Page Top

#18 Despite this guidance from the CDC on "cause of death", that just tells me that doctors (not all) have no integrity. They either need to cite the correct cause of [unfortunate] death or else consider themselves as unethical and a disgrace to the medical profession. The days of AMA support from Big Tobacco are over. I think.
Posted by Clem 2020-04-26 11:48||   2020-04-26 11:48|| Front Page Top

#19 #14 Unfortunately "big slowdown" is not coming. If you look at the graphs, JFM, a lot of the states are in the rising phase. And the med personnel becomes exhausted. And citizenry, exhausted by non accustomed lockdown, ignores quarantine rules.
USA, despite NYC experience, is like Italy was in mid-March, or France at the end of March.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-04-26 12:00||   2020-04-26 12:00|| Front Page Top

#20 Grom - it's not slowing down, but it's not really rising either - daily new cases and deaths have been roughly constant for the last three weeks in the three jurisdictions I follow. I haven't seen a model that explains that.
Posted by Glenmore 2020-04-26 12:37||   2020-04-26 12:37|| Front Page Top

#21 Infection graphs for each of 50 US states shown side by side here.

Tell me if you can guess the correlation between "Shelter-in-Place" policies implemented by certain states and the shape of the curve.

Can you say, zero zip nada ничего?
Posted by Lex 2020-04-26 12:48||   2020-04-26 12:48|| Front Page Top

#22 #21 (a) Thanks, Lex, that's what I was looking for.
(b) It says "shelter in place" on the graph - so no test.
(c) It doesn't say nada about compliance*.
(d) I commend "Cold vs. Warm Weather States" graph to you. Notice, exactly the same pattern - only diffs in amplitude.
(e) Let us compare Alaska to California - keeping (c) in mind.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-04-26 13:06||   2020-04-26 13:06|| Front Page Top

#23 Obviously, Alaska ended the first wave, and California is not (I assume because the virus expanded from the coast - where hombres ricos live, to the state's interior).

p.s. Give 2 - 4 weeks (depending on hot/cold) for asymptomatic phase.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-04-26 13:11||   2020-04-26 13:11|| Front Page Top

#24 ^Which also explains the freaking Princess.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-04-26 13:16||   2020-04-26 13:16|| Front Page Top

#25 You numbers freaks are so funny.
Wear your masks and get tested.
No different than condoms and STDs.
Posted by Skidmark 2020-04-26 17:04||   2020-04-26 17:04|| Front Page Top

#26 Skid, I don't care about numbers per se - but they make patterns.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-04-26 17:06||   2020-04-26 17:06|| Front Page Top

#27 I don't care about numbers per se - but they make patterns.

If you whisper to them, they will show you wonders and predict the future.
Posted by SteveS 2020-04-26 21:09||   2020-04-26 21:09|| Front Page Top

#28 #25 Wear your masks and get tested.
No different than condoms and STDs.

Which is why whenever there's a (perceived, not actual) spike in STDs we act swiftly to force the entire economy to shut down for months, destroy 1/3 of the population's livelihoods and create another Depression, right?
Posted by Lex 2020-04-26 22:16||   2020-04-26 22:16|| Front Page Top

12:53 Skidmark
12:52 Abu Uluque
12:50 Abu Uluque
12:49 Skidmark
12:48 NN2N1
12:46 Skidmark
12:44 Bobby
12:43 Abu Uluque
12:41 Bobby
12:38 Skidmark
12:31 swksvolFF
12:30 Skidmark
12:22 Abu Uluque
12:19 Abu Uluque
12:17 Abu Uluque
12:17 Skidmark
12:15 Abu Uluque
12:11 Skidmark
12:01 Crusader
11:55 Grom the Affective
11:52 Crusader
11:50 Crusader
11:40 swksvolFF
11:11 HeavyG









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