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2020-04-24 Home Front: Politix

Vote by Mail in Wisconsin Helped a Liberal Candidate, Upending Old Theories

[Yahoo] The liberal candidate in Wisconsin’s hard-fought state Supreme Court race this month prevailed in voting by mail by a significant margin, upending years of study showing little advantage to either party when a state transitions from in-person to mail voting.

The gap suggests that Democrats were more organized and proactive in their vote-by-mail efforts in an election conducted under extraordinary circumstances, with voters forced to weigh the health risks of voting in person against the sometimes unreliable option of requesting and mailing in their ballots. Still, it is likely to add to the skepticism President Donald Trump and Republicans have expressed about mail voting, which they worry would increase Democratic turnout at Republicans’ expense.

The liberal jurist, Jill Karofsky, performed 10 percentage points better than her conservative opponent in votes cast by mail than she did in votes cast at Election Day polling places, a gap that powered a surprising 11-point victory overall in a state both parties view as crucial to winning November’s presidential election.

The voting data, collected by The New York Times from 27 Wisconsin municipalities that segregate ballots cast on Election Day from those sent by mail, shows that Karofsky’s advantage in mail ballots over the conservative incumbent, Justice Daniel Kelly, was consistent across communities of varying size, geography and partisan lean. In a state with little history of voting by mail, more than 1.1 million of 1.55 million votes cast came by mail.

The Times analysis of Wisconsin records shows a staggering gap between in-person and mail voting in some communities. At a single precinct, Beloit’s 11th Ward, Kelly won 64% of the Election Day vote while Karofsky took 70% of votes cast by mail.

Posted by charger 2020-04-24 01:15|| || Front Page|| [25 views ] Top

#1 ...FWIW, I seem to remember that just before the election, the Republican was so far ahead that they were writing off Justice-Elect Karofsky.

Funny, that.

Mike

Posted by Mike Kozlowski 2020-04-24 06:47|| 2020-04-24 06:47|| Front Page Top

#2 So much for the 'paper ballot' safer than electronic.

In person unless on federal orders to be someplace else. Period.

Posted by Procopius2k 2020-04-24 08:26|| 2020-04-24 08:26|| Front Page Top

#3 Sarah, where did you put that shocked face?

Posted by Mercutio 2020-04-24 09:20|| 2020-04-24 09:20|| Front Page Top

#4 What are the odds of this 70% Dem mail-in ballot tally happening by chance, without fiddling?

Less than 1%?

Posted by Lex 2020-04-24 09:27|| 2020-04-24 09:27|| Front Page Top

#5 More likely due to local cemetaries having their own Post Office.

Posted by CrazyFool 2020-04-24 09:31|| 2020-04-24 09:31|| Front Page Top

#6 The gap suggests that Democrats were more organized and proactive in their vote-by-mail efforts

Proactive? Is that a euphemism for "ballot harvesting"?

Posted by SteveS 2020-04-24 11:01|| 2020-04-24 11:01|| Front Page Top

#7 Someone reiterated the "If you are getting flak" truism in regard to this. Further, I'd say, if dems want it, it's probably a very bad idea. If the usual suspects are saying "it won't be a problem," then look out...

Posted by M. Murcek 2020-04-24 11:46|| 2020-04-24 11:46|| Front Page Top

#8 The Dems also talked a Madison District judge (uber-liberal - what else?) into extending the vote counting a week to accomodate mail-in ballots that 'didn't arrive by voting day' (in other words, ballots not requested by the individual voters until after the normal cutoff for doing so - usually 2-weeks prior). The extra time allowed the usual suspects to do their deeds.

Posted by Mullah Richard 2020-04-24 13:48|| 2020-04-24 13:48|| Front Page Top

#9 Fair mail-in votes would tend to be equal but actual mail-in ballots are one of the main ways the Democrats steal elections.

Posted by ruprecht 2020-04-24 18:50|| 2020-04-24 18:50|| Front Page Top

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