2020-04-12 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
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Central Planning Didn't Flatten the Curve
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[National Review] Still, there’s an interesting assumption common to both sides of the debate: that the government is responsible for all of this. Both defenders and the critics start from the premise that government diktats are the only variable here.
Lyman Stone, an economist based in Hong Kong, makes the case that the essential variable in "flattening the curve" isn’t central planning but behavior change. Many businesses closed down well before they were ordered to. Millions of people practiced social distancing and refused to get on planes not because they were commanded to, but because they were convinced this was a wise course of action for themselves and their loved ones.
People change their behavior when they are given clear information about risks. Various countries have flattened the curve of COVID-19 cases in different ways, Stone explained on my podcast, The Remnant. Some relied heavily on contact tracing, others on quarantining the sick, others through lockdowns ‐ or all of the above. "But what we’ve seen in every country is that what really does it is information," Stone said.
Information doesn’t just come from governments. The death tolls in Italy and New York probably did more to change behavior on the ground than all of Trump’s press conferences or Dr. Anthony Fauci’s TV appearances.
And this raises another complication for those who think the government can just "re-open" the economy with the flick of a switch. Trump and all of the governors could lift the stay-at-home orders and federal advisories tomorrow. That wouldn’t necessarily fill the restaurants, airplanes, or stadiums. People would still need to be convinced it’s safe. Such persuasion comes via clear, believable information, not orders from on high.
And that’s how it should be in a free society.
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Posted by Bobby 2020-04-12 00:00||
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Posted by swksvolFF 2020-04-12 14:38||
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