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2020-04-11 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
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The domestication of Hezbollah in the time of coronavirus
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 [ENGLISH.ALARABIYA.NET] Almost four years ago, Hezbollah’s candidate General Michel Aoun
...president of Leb, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Hizbullah...
was elected president. Two years ago, Hezbollah’s coalition achieved a majority in Parliament. Six months ago, they achieved the same in the council of ministers. Hezbollah had finally achieved full domestic political integration, as well as dominance of the Lebanese political scene, despite US pressure. Nevertheless, governance has proved elusive, despite having allies in all the high places. Paradoxically, it is the allies that make governance difficult.
The popular revolt of last October, the accelerated economic free fall, and now the COVID-19 crisis, have forced Hezbollah to shift its attention to domestic matters. Contrary to what Hezbollah leader His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah
Continued from Page 4
...The satrap of the Medes and the Persians in Leb...
has claimed repeatedly, economic collapse affected all Lebanese, including his Shia base. With Hezbollah and its allies exclusively in government, denying responsibility was no longer credible or possible. For too long Hezbollah blamed pro-western March 14 parties in the previous unity government for hampering reform. With Hezbollah and its allies in charge, several voices, including the editor of the pro-Iranian al-Akhbar newspaper, have pleaded openly with Nasrallah to distance himself from some of his corrupt allies. For once, Hezbollah has gone on the defensive.
There is little doubt that the image of Hezbollah has been tarnished by the inability of the current government to implement reform and for its failure to effectively confront the financial crisis. Gone are the lofty themes of confronting the Zionist entity or battling takfiri
...an adherent of takfir wal hijra, an offshoot of Salafism that regards everybody who doesn't agree with them as apostates who most be killed...
s. The civil war in Yemen
...an area of the Arabian Peninsula sometimes mistaken for a country. It is populated by more antagonistic tribes and factions than you can keep track of...
and the Bahraini crackdown are no longer the primary concern of the Shia community in Leb
 ...an Iranian colony situated on the eastern Mediterranean, conveniently adjacent to Israel. Formerly inhabited by hardy Phoenecian traders, its official language is now Arabic, with the usual unpleasant side effects. The Leb civil war, between 1975 and 1990, lasted a little over 145 years and produced 120,000 fatalities. The average length of a ceasefire was measured in seconds. The Lebs maintain a precarious sectarian balance among Shiites, Sunnis, and about a dozeen flavors of Christians. It is the home of Hezbollah, which periodically starts a war with the Zionist Entity, gets Beirut pounded to rubble, and then declares victory and has a parade. The Lebs have the curious habit of periodically murdering their heads of state or prime ministers...
In an attempt to placate his base, Nasrallah shifted his attention to economic and financial issues, presenting a long and naive salvage plan that depended heavily on Chinese sponsorship and local remedies after earlier assurances that the Iran-backed group’s cadres would be spared economic hardship quickly dissipated. Hezbollah’s earlier intransigence in accepting International Monetary Fund help gave way to backtracking after it became apparent that there is no other credible bailout and that Lebanon needs a rapid infusion of cash that only the IMF could provide.
The coronavirus (aka COVID19 or Chinese Plague)
...the twenty first century equivalent of bubonic plague, only instead of killing off a third of the population of Europe it kills 3.4 percent of those who notice they have it. It seems to be fond of the elderly, especially Iranian politicians and holy men...
pandemic has further compromised Hezbollah and the current government after flights continued from Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
to Beirut unabated. Indeed with the collapse of the price of oil, even Iranian financial support is now in question. Put simply, Hezbollah’s resources as well as those of its sponsors fall short of coping with the economic meltdown that was made worse by the coronavirus pandemic. Hezbollah now needs the full resources of the state to survive. And the state needs the full resources of the IMF.
Recent riots in a Shia neighborhood were a clear indication that ideology alone can no longer carry the day, especially given that Sunni militancy is no longer a primary threat. Currency devaluation as well as rampant inflation are weighing heavily on Hezbollah’s standing. While some followers might endure such hardship, many of its allies will not.
The fate of Hezbollah is now tied to the economy. Whereas the previous government had some sway with Western powers and some Arab states, this one has none. The current government faces unprecedented Arab isolation. And lack of effective reform has alienated Western donors.
To complicate matters, Hezbollah finds itself in the midst of crippling factional and sectarian tensions. The strategic alliance of the "axis of resistance" parties seems to have lost any relevance in local politics. Just recently, Gebran Bassil, the key Christian ally of Hezbollah, was critical of ferrying Lebanese back to Lebanon. He also voiced support for a capital controls bill to regulate the financial sector and spoke positively of seeking the help of the IMF, in flagrant opposition to Hezbollah and its main Shia ally, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Knobby Berri
...Speaker of the Lebanese parliament, head of the Amal Shiite party aligned with Hezbollah, a not very subtle sock puppet of the Medes and Persians...
Hassan Diab’s Hezbollah-backed government is imploding with internal dissent. Whereas Hezbollah’s missiles may deter Israel, they give the group little leverage in dealing with the petty bickering of its allies. Its lofty themes have lost their luster in the gutter of local politics and a deep recession. Gaining legitimacy came at the cost of domestication. Hezbollah to a large extent is now a state actor.
The irony is that Hezbollah controlled the state when it was a non-state actor, but lost that control when it became one. In a reversal of fortune, Hezbollah now needs the state more than the state needs Hezbollah. Moreover, Hezbollah’s ability to keep its allies in line seems more tenuous. Nevertheless, Hezbollah and its Shia Amal partner remain the most powerful and organized political force in Lebanon. The Sunnis have yet to recover from Prime Minister Saad Hariri
...Second son of Rafik Hariri, the Leb PM who was assassinated in 2005. He has was prime minister in his own right from 2009 through early 2011. He was born in Riyadh to an Iraqi mother and graduated from Georgetown University. He managed his father's business interests in Riyadh until his father's assassination. When his father died he inherited a fortune of some $4.1 billion, which won't do him much good if Hizbullah has him bumped off, too....
’s resignation, while the Christians remain divided as they have been for decades. It is unlikely that any alliance can stand up to Hezbollah in the near future. It is also doubtful whether the October 17 protests can make a dent in Hezbollah’s Shia dominance, let alone other affiliated parties.
The Lebanese Armed Forces remains a stabilizing force but is unlikely to change the status quo in a Hezbollah-dominated landscape. It remains on the sidelines and is unlikely to rock the boat. The coronavirus pandemic will change much in the world, but not in Lebanon. The current unipolar government seems short-lived and will likely fade away with the pandemic. Long after the disease is gone, Lebanon will return to its winter of discontent with the usual suspects in place and a new "unity" government. Hezbollah survived decades of war, but it faces its most daunting challenge yet ‐ its domestication in Lebanese politics. The party’s unipolar experiment in power has failed, and it is unlikely to repeat it.
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Posted by Fred 2020-04-11 00:00||
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