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2020-03-26 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

Jewish Nobel laureate fella at Stanford sez virus will hit turning point sooner than expected

[NYP] The US will see a turning point in the battle to contain coronavirus sooner than expected, according to the Nobel laureate who correctly predicted when China would get through the worst of its crisis.

Stanford University biology professor Michael Levitt, who won the 2013 Nobel Prize in chemistry, said his models don’t support predictions that the virus will wreak months or even years of social disruption or cause millions of deaths, the Los Angeles Times reported.

"What we need is to control the panic ... we’re going to be fine," assured Levitt, who correctly predicted early on that China would get through the worst of the outbreak by mid-February.

His optimistic report on China said the country would peak with around 80,000 cases and 3,250 deaths. He was not far off: China has reported 81,588 cases with 3,281 deaths as of March 24.

Now Levitt is looking at 78 countries that have reported more than 50 new infections each day.

He said he focuses on new cases ‐ as opposed to overall totals ‐ and sees "signs of recovery" in each of the places.

"Numbers are still noisy, but there are clear signs of slowed growth," Levitt said, without offering a concrete date for when the US may see its turning point.

The US has confirmed more than 46,000 cases, resulting in at least 593 deaths as of Tuesday afternoon, according to figures from Johns Hopkins University.

Levitt acknowledged that not all cases have been detected in some countries, but their death tolls are on track with his findings, the outlet reported.

Posted by Besoeker 2020-03-26 11:26|| || Front Page|| [11139 views ] Top

#1 Born in Pretoria, SA and served with the IDF. Is reported to occasionally enjoy a glass of French wine. Can he be believed ?

[sarc off]

Posted by Besoeker 2020-03-26 11:35|| 2020-03-26 11:35|| Front Page Top

#2 No. He said this staff weeks ago. We had it here.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-26 12:21|| 2020-03-26 12:21|| Front Page Top

#3 Somebody's enjoying some wine.

Posted by Skidmark 2020-03-26 12:25|| 2020-03-26 12:25|| Front Page Top

#4 The Hill - Fauci: 'You don't make the timeline. The virus makes the timeline'

Posted by Besoeker 2020-03-26 12:47|| 2020-03-26 12:47|| Front Page Top

#5 Somebody's enjoying some wine.
__
\_/
..|..

Posted by Lex 2020-03-26 12:51|| 2020-03-26 12:51|| Front Page Top

#6 Meanwhile, per the Johns Hopkins site, no Americans have recovered. Italy has over 10,000 recovered and Georgia (the country, not the Peach State) has 10 recovered, but nada for the U.S.

Am I missing something?

Posted by Bobby 2020-03-26 14:46|| 2020-03-26 14:46|| Front Page Top

#7 ^Yes, it started later in USA.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-26 14:52|| 2020-03-26 14:52|| Front Page Top

#8 No wine for Imperial College's Neil Ferguson, who just knocked down his ridiculous doomsday prediction more than twenty-fivefold.

"Did I say 500,000 deaths? I meant fewer than 20,000..."
OOPS.

Posted by Lex 2020-03-26 15:04|| 2020-03-26 15:04|| Front Page Top

#9 Jewish?

Posted by Slerert Bourbon6278 2020-03-26 17:29|| 2020-03-26 17:29|| Front Page Top

#10 Oh dear, a brilliant chemist. My father was one of those. He saw interesting patterns in the stock market, on which he bet heavily on margin, making pots of money for a while. Unfortunately, people do not behave as consistently as chemicals, so he lost everything when it went down instead of continuing the upward trend. Let’s hope this one is smarter about the behaviour of crowds than my father was.

Posted by trailing wife 2020-03-26 23:00|| 2020-03-26 23:00|| Front Page Top

#11 He isn't. Smart people make the most colossal mistakes.

Bad data + extreme assumptions + cocksure predictions => ruin.

Posted by Lex 2020-03-26 23:04|| 2020-03-26 23:04|| Front Page Top

#12 Folks, Neil Ferguson of Imperial College is the supposed wizard whose extremest / apocalyptic model and assumptions served as the basis for our pilicynajers' decisions these past 6+ weeks.

Ferguson just admitted he was wrong.
Not by an inch or a foot but BY MILES.
TWENTY-FIVE FOLD.

Thank god the man has the decency to admit it.
Thank god it's not too late to course-correct.

Posted by Lex 2020-03-26 23:08|| 2020-03-26 23:08|| Front Page Top

#13 * extremist

Posted by Lex 2020-03-26 23:08|| 2020-03-26 23:08|| Front Page Top

#14 * policymakers'
Please correct, tia

Posted by Lex 2020-03-26 23:09|| 2020-03-26 23:09|| Front Page Top

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