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2020-03-25 The Grand Turk
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Does Turkey have the will to take on jihadis in Idlib?
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[al-Monitor] The coronavirus (aka COVID19 or Chinese Plague)
...the twenty first century equivalent of bubonic plague, only instead of killing off a third of the population of Europe it kills 3.4 percent of those who notice they have it. It seems to be fond of the elderly, especially Iranian politicians and holy men...
pandemic is dominating the news in The Sick Man of Europe Turkey
...Qatar's satrapy in Asia Minor...
today, steering public attention away from Idlib, Syria, where Ankara is increasingly caught between a rock and a hard place.
Continued from Page 4
The situation in the northwestern Syrian province continues to be volatile, despite the fragile cease-fire reached between His Enormity, Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan the First
 ...Turkey's version of Mohammed Morsi but they voted him back in so they deserve him. It's a sin, a shame, and a felony to insult the president of Turkey. In Anatolia did Recep Bey a stately Presidential Palace decree, that has 1100 rooms. That's 968 more than in the White House, 400 more than in Versailles, and 325 more than Buckingham Palace, so you know who's really more important...
and Vladimir Putin
...President-for-Life of Russia. He gets along well with other presidents for life. He is credited with bringing political stability and re-establishing something like the rule of law, which occasionally results in somebody dropping dead from poisoning by polonium or other interesting substance. Under Putin, a new group of business magnates controlling significant swathes of Russia's economy has emerged, all of whom have close personal ties to him. The old bunch, without close personal ties to Putin, are in jail or in exile or dead from poisoning by polonium or other interesting substances...
in Moscow on March 5.
The jihadi groups that Ankara has maintained some degree of contact with in the region remain Turkey’s Achilles’ heel in its dealings with Russia over Idlib.
These groups also pose an obstacle to Ankara as it tries to achieve its immediate goals in the province. Turkey’s principal aim is to establish safe zones there to house the millions of Syrian refugees it hosts.
The refugee issue has become a heavy burden for the country, which now faces additional problems and financial uncertainties due to the COVID-19 crisis.
Russia’s position has not changed. It insists that jihadi groups in Idlib have to be eliminated before military operations can be finally terminated.
The main group in Russia’s crosshairs is Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), which Moscow continues to refer to by its original name, Jabhat al-Nusra
...formally Jabhat an-Nusrah li-Ahli al-Sham (Support Front for the People of the Levant), also known as al-Qaeda in the Levant. They aim to establish a pan-Arab caliphate. Not the same one as the Islamic State, though .. ...
. The Moscow Summit on March 5 once again tasked Ankara with removing HTS and related groups from Idlib.
Ankara was similarly tasked under the former Astana process, which was co-sponsored by Turkey, Russia and Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
in 2017, but failed, according to Moscow, to fulfill its obligation.
The ultimate result of this failure was the recent face-off between Russia and Turkey in Idlib and the deadly festivities between the Ottoman Turkish army and forces attached to the Syrian regime.
Having failed to take on HTS and similar groups in any significant manner to date, the question remains as to whether Ankara has the will to carry out this task today.
Al-Monitor’s Fehim Tastekin underlined Ankara’s reluctance "to treat the jihadi factions it has backed, and allowed to use its borders, as terrorist groups."
The fact that Ankara designated HTS as a terrorist organization belatedly in August 2018, to comply with the UN’s list of terrorist organizations, did not alter this situation, as Tastekin pointed out.
Turkey’s connections with HTS go back to the early years of the Syrian conflict. In January 2013, Hurriyet Daily News reported on Ankara’s displeasure that Washington had listed Jabhat al-Nusra as a terrorist organization.
"Ottoman Turkish officials ... said it was more important to focus on the ’chaos’ that al-Assad has created instead of groups such as al-Nusra," the paper wrote at the time.
The question of jihadi fighters in Idlib has taken on an added significance now following last week’s killing of two Ottoman Turkish soldiers in the region by "radical groups," as stated by Turkey’s Ministry of Defense.
While no one owned up to the rocket attack that killed the soldiers, it is taken as a given in Turkey that it was carried out by HTS or a splinter group.
HTS has refused to comply with the cease-fire reached at the Moscow summit. Russia says HTS was also the organizer of the recent protests that obstructed the joint Ottoman Turkish-Russian patrol on the strategic M4 highway.
In its statement on last week’s attack against Ottoman Turkish forces, the Ministry of Defense added that retaliation came swiftly and the perpetrators were neutralized immediately.
Many are wondering now if this is the harbinger of the next stage of the crisis in Idlib where Ottoman Turkish forces and jihadis fight it out.
In February, Erdogan put "bashi-bozouks" (irregular elements among opposition fighters in Syria) on notice. He said these elements would not be tolerated by Turkey "if their actions gave the regime an excuse to mount attacks."
The Moscow summit may have ended the festivities in Idlib for the time being. Nevertheless, most analysts believe the highly fragile cease-fire will collapse due to attacks by HTS and retaliation from Russia-backed regime forces.
Accusations are already being leveled by both sides regarding sporadic violations of the cease-fire, while the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported on exchanges of fire between opposition and regime forces in various parts of Idlib province in recent days.
Moscow remains adamant about the need to eliminate HTS from Idlib. In all its agreements with Ankara since the first Astana summit in January 2017, it has spelled out that HTS and similar groups would be outside any cease-fire agreement and remain legitimate targets.
With this determination on the Russian side, it is unclear how Ankara plans to approach the matter. What is certain is that it is in a situation, where it is damned if it acts and damned if it doesn’t.
Should Ankara decide to take on HTS ‐ which controls a large swath of northwestern Syria ‐ it is likely to pay a high price in civilian and military casualties. It will, after all, be engaging a hardened jihadi group that uses nonconventional and asymmetrical terror tactics to achieve its goals.
Retired Brig. Gen. Naim Baburoglu, a much-cited military analyst, said Turkey is unlikely to mount a large-scale operation against HTS or similar groups.
In an interview with daily Cumhuriyet, Baburoglu argued that such an operation would not only result in a new flood of refugees swarming the Ottoman Turkish border, but also enable undesired elements to move into Turkey.
"Nevertheless, pinpoint operations can be mounted, together with opposition elements, against radical groups," Baburoglu said.
This, however, suggests retaliations against specific attacks ‐ such as the one last week ‐ and would not represent a general approach to the matter. Moscow is unlikely to be appeased with this approach.
How Ottoman Turkish-supported opposition groups are expected to take on HTS, at Turkey’s bidding, having cooperated with this group and its offshoots against the regime for months, is also unclear.
Columnist Sedat Ergin pointed to Turkey’s other dilemma in Idlib.
"If the aims of the Moscow agreement of March 5 are not realized due to obstructions by HTS and other radical groups, then Russia may repeat the tactic it employed in the past," Ergin wrote in daily Hurriyet.
"It will wait a while then say, ’It’s not possible to live with these terrorist groups,’ and start an all-out military operation with the regime that triggers a new wave of refugees," Ergin argued.
The pro-government media in Turkey are indicating that remarks by Washington’s Syria envoy James Jeffrey may point to a softening of the US position regarding HTS.
Jeffrey said Feb. 5 that "we have not seen [HTS] planning or carrying out international terrorism attacks. We’ve seen them focusing on basically maintaining their position in Idlib."
Some interpret these remarks as a sign that the United States could remove HTS from its list of international terrorist organizations. If that were to happen, it would help Turkey in Idlib.
Given Russia’s firm position on this group, though, such expectations appear to be wishful thinking.
In the meantime, Ankara continues to send heavy equipment and reinforcements to Idlib after the Moscow summit. This suggests that it is factoring in and preparing for the possibility of a resumption of military activity. 
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