 [NPASYRIA] The ceasefire agreement between Russia and The Sick Man of Europe Turkey
...Qatar's satrapy in Asia Minor...
in Idlib, north-west of Syria, has ended the expiry of the Ottoman Turkish political and media discourse since a month, regarding the battles taking place there. The deadline that the Ottoman Turkish president Erdogan has repeatedly threatened the Syrian regime, is a testament to the significant Ottoman Turkish retreat in the negotiations which took place between the two sides in Moscow.
The Syrian opposition has placed its hopes on his red line, that is, the deadline granted to the regime forces to withdraw from Saraqib, Maarat al-Numan, and dozens of other villages. For a moment, and in addition to accepting the new reality, it seemed that his retreat from what he had threatened, would be an insult to him and to his country, but the agreement which was announced by the officials of the two countries in a presser, included surprising items which were not taken into account. Given the size of Erdogan's threats and the rush of his forces despite the shocking losses, the expectations were that there must be joint patrols on Aleppo-Damascus M5 highway, which are now under the Syrian regime’s control, and not Aleppo-Lattakia M4 highway, which passes through the remaining depth in the areas of the Syrian opposition and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, formerly al-Nusra, before that it was called something else
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 ...al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, from which sprang the Islamic State...
HTS.
Based on its expected fragility in the field, the ceasefire agreement devoted a new reality on two levels, the first is the end of the Ottoman Turkish vision to Sochi agreement irreversibly, which means that Ankara will finally give up the efforts to restore the areas which the Syrian government forces have recently controlled, and it is an important victory for Putin of course. As for the second, it is the temporary nature of Moscow Agreement, as Putin "reaffirmed the necessity of adhering to the principles of Syria's independence, its illusory sovereignty, its territorial integrity and continuing to fight terrorism there, and the readiness of the two countries to go on working within the framework of Astana process to resolve the crisis," which indicates that in one of its most important aspects, the agreement depends on fragmenting the military operations over time periods, rather than the comprehensive campaign formula which was approved.
On the other hand, Erdogan gained some small points as well. The interior discontent began to escalate against Turkey's involvement in a direct war with Russia, despite the avoidance of declaring this publicly by the two sides, and this has led to the rise in the number of the killed Ottoman Turkish soldiers to more than 60 in a month. The agreement, which Erdogan's media was unable to portray as a brilliant victory, gives him an opportunity to breathe in internally, to reduce the number of the killing of the soldiers, as this issue has become a preoccupation of the parties competing for the Justice and Development Party AKP, and has caused a fierce row between the members in the Ottoman Turkish Parliament.
Internationally, Turkey also failed to obtain explicit support from the NATO
...the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. It's headquartered in Belgium. That sez it all....
, or even from the member states bilaterally, despite the attempts of the U.S. Special Envoy to Syria James Jeffrey, who acknowledged, hours before the signing of Moscow Agreement in a rare statement, that the decision-making circles in Washington are divided over Turkey, which means a declaration of the failure of Jeffrey’s project to turn Turkey into an opponent to Russia and Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan, the abbreviation IRGC is a cognate form of Stürmabteilung (or SA), the term Supreme Guide is a cognate form of either Shah or Führer or maybe both, and they hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
in Syria.
In the context of the statements issued by the two sides shortly after the signing, Russia has lost nothing, but to reduce the pace of military operations which are expected to continue in the form of mutual bombing between the armed opposition groups and the Syrian government forces, without significant ground movements on both sides. That is, both Russia and Turkey refrain from direct engagement in the operations at present, until the new borders of Sochi Agreement are established.
While the most dangerous gain for Russia from the agreement, lies in the fact that Sochi Agreement has only become flexible in one direction, which is the direction of the Syrian regime's gradual expansion of its areas, and according to this vision, Turkey must adhere to the fact that Sochi borders are solid, non-porous in the opposite direction, which is counter to the Syrian regime's controlled areas.
For the Syrian regime, there is a vital point which occupies the upper narrow circles there, the non-return of people of Idlib at this time. It is likely to prolong the state of the "dormant war," which is liable to explosion at any moment, while the displaced people can manage their affairs and think of long-term solutions for themselves.
There remained some issues which are not currently clear, such as the fate of the Ottoman Turkish observation posts in the areas under the Syrian government forces control, and whether their job will become what the stations do, as well as the fate of the Ottoman Turkish heavy weaponry in the observation posts. The issue of the airspace was not addressed either, although it was expected that the Turks would extract the right to observe the buffer zone on both sides of the M4 highway by air, at least.
At the presser, Erdogan tried to put "East of Euphrates" into the matter, by saying: "We would like to continue to deepen the cooperation relations (with Russia), that include the political process in Syria and the situation in East of Euphrates," without elaborating or explaining what he intends there and it is known that, he uses such occasions to send messages to the Ottoman Turkish interior that his efforts in combating the Kurds.
Fears still exist for the East of Euphrates Alliance that the agreement could include secret clauses to compensate Turkey for its great losses in Idlib, since the agreement did not carry any victory for Turkey there, but the announced data, and among the declared lines as well as the atmosphere accompanying the event, do not indicate that there is a deal between the two sides at the moment. Moscow does not need such a deal and eliminate the Autonomous Administration project for the time being, as long as Russia has secured a strong presence in the East of Euphrates, in a major strategic victory for Putin in a region known as "America Square" in Syria.
Nevertheless, the Turks have persuasive formulas that may benefit their sabotage endeavor. The Ottoman Turkish regime can suggest to Moscow that any new expansion in the East of Euphrates will be temporary, as a temporary presence from one to three years for this state is sufficient for it, because its function is to destroy the existing construction as it did in Afrin and doing in Sere-Kaniye (Ras al-Ain) and Tal-Abyad (Gre-Spi).
On the other hand, Russia has another formula in the East of Euphrates, which is the Syrian regime, by itself, undertakes a military operation against the Syrian Democratic Forces SDF there, and it is more likely that there was no coincidence in what Bashir al-Assad said before signing Moscow Agreement, that the priority now is for Idlib, and then they would head into the eastern regions.
According to Assad’s interview with a Russian TV channel, and his statements regarding that the Kurds are guests in Syria, and there is no Kurdish Cause, there is no dispute that, East of Euphrates is present in Moscow Agreement in another way outside the terms, which is the Syrian regime’s pledge not to accept any negotiated solutions with the SDF and the Autonomous Administration of northeastern Syria.
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