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2019-12-11 The Grand Turk
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Erdogan’s adventure in the Mediterranean via the Libyan gateway
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[NPASYRIA] Erdogan's motives for signing two memoranda of understanding with Libya, specifically with the Presidential Council of Fayez al-Sarraj are many. The first memorandum is military, which gives The Sick Man of Europe Turkey
 ...the only place on the face of the earth that misses the Ottoman Empire...
the freedom to use the Libyan airspace, establishing military bases on Libyan territories without permission from its authorities, the second is marine and related to energy extraction from the Mediterranean Sea. Both memoranda provoked the Libyan, regional and international angry reactions.
What is remarkable about the Ottoman Turkish behavior after the signing of the two memoranda is the Ottoman Turkish parliament’s rushing to ratify them, and Ankara’s indifference to the rejecting responses, especially from the Libyan parties which considered the signing of the two memoranda in the manner that took place is illegal, as the signing of foreign agreements according to the Libyan al-Skheirat agreement requires the sign of all members of the Libyan Presidential Council, and they are nine members. While the one who signed the memorandum was only the president of the council, which lost the legitimacy when signing the two memoranda. Libya is also under Chapter 7 of the U.N. Security Council, which deprives it legally from the sovereign agreements.
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The question that arises here is, why is this Erdogan’s adventure in the Mediterranean from the gateway of Libya? In an attempt to answer this question, it is necessary to consider the following:
First: Erdogan's signature on the two memoranda was a response to the marine agreements signed by Egypt, Greece and Cyprus, and an attempt to impose a fait accompli policy on these countries contrary to the international law of the sea, which stipulates that the marine agreements should be between the riparian countries, as the main Ottoman Turkish goal behind that is to have bargaining chips when proposing political solutions to the rights of the states in the Mediterranean.
Second: Turkey, and after making sure that its coast doesn't contain the energy that is a strategic issue for it because of its increasing needs, wants these memoranda to make itself a focal point among the regions of extraction, supply and export to Europe
...the land mass occupying the space between the English Channel and the Urals, also known as Moslem Lebensraum...
, this matter is directed mainly towards Greece, Egypt, Israel, Cyprus and the European countries which are seeking to supply energy lines away from the Ottoman Turkish borders.
Third: Building legal foundations and strong elements to participate in the international forums which were formed on how to manage energy sources of oil and gas in the Mediterranean, especially after Egypt’s success in forming an international forum in this regard with the participation of maritime states in the Mediterranean and with the absence of Turkey.
Fourth: Strengthening the Ottoman Turkish cards in the maritime conflict with Greece, which has the European support. The Ottoman Turkish-Libyan Marine Memorandum of Understanding ignores the situation of the Greek island of Crete which separates the waters between Turkey and Libya, especially since the eastern region of Libya is outside the control of the al-Wifaq Government of the Presidential Council, and thus the Ottoman Turkish-Libyan agreement aims to create a new maritime reality vis-a-vis Greece.
Fifth: The Ottoman Turkish goal behind the two memoranda exceeds the energy dimension to politics. al-Wefaq Government represented by al-Sarraj represents the Moslem Brüderbund organization in Libya, and it controls the capital Tripoli
...a confusing city, one end of which is located in Lebanon and the other end of which is the capital of Libya. Its chief distinction is being mentioned in the Marine Hymn...
, through gangs to which Turkey provides various types of weaponry, and thus, Erdogan wants to consolidate the rule of this group in favor of his agenda in Libya and the whole of Africa within the framework of the so-called new Ottomanism. This policy increases the intensity of the regional political confrontation, especially with Egypt under President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi
...successor to Hosni Mubarak as president-for-life of Egypt. That was after he removed the late Mohammad al-Morsi as president-for-life by popular demand in one of the April showers of the Arab Spring...
's rule after his success in ending the rule of the Moslem Brüderbund Organization in Egypt.
Indeed, Erdogan's policy in Libya seems like a great political adventure, as it stirred the conflict with Greece, Cyprus and the European Union
...the successor to the Holy Roman Empire, only without the Hapsburgs and the nifty uniforms and the dancing...
in general, as well as it has escalated the conflict with Egypt, especially since Libya is a neighboring country to Egypt and important to its national security, as it constitutes a new point of tension in the relationship with the Arab countries, especially the Arab Gulf countries, which opposes Turkey's strategy in Libya strongly, and perhaps the most dangerous matter here is that, the Ottoman Turkish move increases the pace of internal conflict in Libya between the National Army led by Major-General Khalifa Haftar
...Self-proclaimed Field Marshal, served in the Libyan army under Muammar Qadaffy, and took part in the coup that brought Qadaffy to power in 1969. He became a prisoner of war in Chad in 1987. While held prisoner, he and his fellow officers formed a group hoping to overthrow Qadaffy, so it's kind of hard to describe him as a Qadaffy holdover. He was released around 1990 in a deal with the United States government and spent nearly two decades in the United States, gaining US citizenship. In 1993, while living in the United States, he was convicted in absentia of crimes against the Jamahiriya and sentenced to death. Haftar held a senior position in the anti-Qadaffy forces in the 2011 Libyan Civil War. In 2014 he was commander of the Libyan Army when the General National Congress (GNC) refused to give up power in accordance with its term of office. Haftar launched a campaign against the GNC and its Islamic fundamentalist allies. His campaign allowed elections to take place to replace the GNC, but then developed into a civil war. Guess you can't win them all...
and Tabraq Parliament on the one hand, and the Government of the National Reconciliation and the gangs in Tripoli on the other hand. Accordingly, observers expect the repercussions of the Ottoman Turkish-Libyan agreement would be significant on the Libyan scene, especially since Tabraq Parliament considered the agreement as an aggression against the Libyan illusory sovereignty. In front of this reality, the Libyan scene seems open to important developments, perhaps the most important of which are:
The option of organizing the Libyan army led by Major-General Haftar to launch a major campaign to control the capital, Tripoli, not only to eliminate the control of the gangs over the city, but also to drop the new agreement with Turkey, especially since this endeavor has Egyptian, Arab Gulf, and French support. Perhaps this is likely to happen, because there are reports that indicate the losing of al-Wifaq Government if its power elements in Tripoli.
The move of the Parliament of Eastern Libya (Tabraq) to drop the Ottoman Turkish-Libyan agreement, especially since the agreement is illegal, due to the legal flaws in the legitimacy of the Libyan party that signed the agreement as we mentioned earlier.
Parallel to this Libyan internal situation, there is an Arab tendency to hold a meeting at the level of the Arab League
...an organization of Arabic-speaking states with 22 member countries and four observers. The League tries to achieve Arab consensus on issues, which usually leaves them doing nothing but a bit of grimacing and mustache cursing...
to delegitimize the Libyan Presidential Council led by al-Sarraj, since the agreement it had signed with the Ottoman Turkish side harms the Arab national security, and the rights of the Mediterranean Arab countries.
In fact, it is clear the Ottoman Turkish-Libyan agreement came in favor of a Ottoman Turkish strategy that Erdogan outlined in his struggle with the regional countries over energy in the Mediterranean, and to overturn the regional alliances that were formed in this context, as well as more domination on the Libyan scene via Moslem Brüderbund groups, but at the same time, this agreement opened the door to an internal Libyan move with the Arab, regional and international support to end the control of al-Wifaq Government and its gangs over the capital, Tripoli.
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Posted by Fred 2019-12-11 00:00||
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