Article

2019-11-13 Economy

The US could end up running on gasoline forever, leaving electric vehicles to China and Europe

[Business Insider] In the decade I've been covering the auto industry, I've never seen a bigger mismatch between market expectations for electric vehicles and market realities.

Back in 2010, I was standing in the parking lot of Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles to hear then-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn proclaim that by 2020, 10% of the auto market worldwide would be electric. The occasion was the introduction of Nissan's Leaf EV, a car that's still on sale today, even though Ghosn's career is in ruins as he awaits trial in Japan on allegations of financial malfeasance.

The global market for plug-in electric vehicles ‐ and that's plug-in gas-electric hybrids as well all-electric battery vehicles, aka BEVs ‐ stand at about 2% on the eve of Ghosn's benchmark year.

A decade is more than enough time for a market to develop for a new type of vehicle. It's happened again and again, with everything from muscle cars to front-wheel-drive sedans to minivans. That EV sales growth has been so weak, relative to expectations, means consumers fundamentally don't want the cars.

It gives me no joy to report this. In the US ‐ the most competitive market ‐ consumers don't want hybrids, either. They do want SUVs and pickups. While this trend has been great for automakers' bottom lines (SUVs and pickups are highly profitable), it's not going to rescue the planet from climate change. I have three children and I don't want them to inherit blistering winds in summer and savage hurricanes in winter.

Posted by Besoeker 2019-11-13 09:14|| || Front Page|| [11131 views ] Top

#1 Imagine - a market driven rather than a planned economy.

Posted by M. Murcek 2019-11-13 10:00|| 2019-11-13 10:00|| Front Page Top

#2 That’s nice. And what does the writer own?

Posted by trailing wife 2019-11-13 10:19|| 2019-11-13 10:19|| Front Page Top

#3 1. China burns more coal than the rest of the world combined.

2. I'm not sure Carlos Ghosn would still be under investigation or undergoing trial if he hadn't earlier spilled the beans about how much Nissan was losing on the heavily subsidized Leaf. (Which is a car that, if I had to buy an electric car, I'd be much more likely to buy than a Tesla).

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2019-11-13 10:29|| 2019-11-13 10:29|| Front Page Top

#4 I'd be OK with it.

Posted by Iblis 2019-11-13 10:55|| 2019-11-13 10:55|| Front Page Top

#5 Well, electric cars have a big potential - put a motor in each wheel etc... But first, you have to invent good accumulators etc... That can only happen under non-hysterical commercial development.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2019-11-13 10:58|| 2019-11-13 10:58|| Front Page Top

#6 Grom, electric cars will go nowhere as long as they're designed by the morons who think "...and it'll be maintenance-free because it's electric!"

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2019-11-13 11:15|| 2019-11-13 11:15|| Front Page Top

#7 But, once the hysteria is over*, it will be time for practical engineering.

If you want to save the Earth from AGW, grow corrals.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2019-11-13 11:17|| 2019-11-13 11:17|| Front Page Top

#8 Might as well save the earth from ghosts as AGW.

Posted by Bright Pebbles 2019-11-13 12:06|| 2019-11-13 12:06|| Front Page Top

#9 The new James Bond movie will feature a neutered James Bond driving an electric car. That should considerably shorten the car-chase scenes.

Posted by Crusader 2019-11-13 13:16|| 2019-11-13 13:16|| Front Page Top

#10 #6 My father was electric motors repairman, Thing - I worked with him as a kid.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2019-11-13 13:37|| 2019-11-13 13:37|| Front Page Top

#11 177,000+ on my 2008 Jeep Liberty. Runs like a clock, the sales department at my dealership hates my guts.

Posted by M. Murcek 2019-11-13 14:03|| 2019-11-13 14:03|| Front Page Top

#12 I don't know, in Southern California it seems like a massive number of cars are Prius or Tesla. Then again we have the recharging infrastructure that other areas might not have, but when that expands...

The real problem is with power generation and with battery disposal. I'm sure the environmentalists are preparing to blast western civilization for adoption such anti-green tech as electric cars when the time come.

Posted by rjschwarz 2019-11-13 14:43|| 2019-11-13 14:43|| Front Page Top

#13 M. Murcek 265,000 on my 2008 Jeep Wrangler 2-door. Runs great.

Posted by Deacon Blues 2019-11-13 14:54|| 2019-11-13 14:54|| Front Page Top

#14 322K on my 2000 Honda; 400+K on the recently sold 1993 Accord. 1987 Accord had 230+K when it was rear-ended and totaled. (hit at ~ 50 mph, all occupants walked away from it, car was stil driveable....
Prius, Tesla and Subaru are not welcome at Casa Ret.

Posted by USN, Ret. 2019-11-13 16:35|| 2019-11-13 16:35|| Front Page Top

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