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2019-10-17 Africa Horn
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Is al-Shabab looking to Ethiopia?
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[DW] Al-Shabaab
...... the Islamic version of the old Somali warlord...
has mostly struck Kenya when attacking outside of Somalia's borders. But after recent arrests of alleged al-Shabaab fighters in Æthiopia, is the Islamist group turning to Æthiopia as a new target?
The al-Shabaab krazed killer group has sown fear and terror in Eastern Africa for more than a decade. The terrorist group is fighting to oust the Somali government and establish a society based on a rigid interpretation of Islamic Shariah law. Its original leadership was affiliated with al-Qaeda.
Continued from Page 4
Although based in Somalia, al-Shabaab frequently launches terror attacks in other African countries, most notably in neighboring Kenya. It has struck there more than 20 times in the past five years, killing at least 300 people.
In January 2019, 21 people died when al-Shabaab button men attacked a hotel and office complex in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi. Most recently, Kenyan police shot and killed three alleged al-Shabaab members and arrested seven. The men were suspected of planning attacks in the coastal city of Mombasa earlier in October.
Al-Shabaab says its strikes on Kenya are in retaliation for its troops crossing into Somalia: Kenya first sent soldiers into Somalia in 2011 to target al-Shabaab fighters and in 2012 it officially joined the African Union
...a union consisting of 53 African states, most run by dictators of one flavor or another. The only all-African state not in the AU is Morocco. Established in 2002, the AU is the successor to the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), which was even less successful...
's peacekeeping mission in Somalia, known as AMISON.
ÆTHIOPIA SO FAR EVADED LARGE-SCALE AL-SHABAAB ATTACKS
Similarly to Kenya, al-Shabaab also has an antagonistic relationship with neighboring Æthiopia.
Æthiopia, backed by the United States, invaded Somalia in December 2006, capturing the capital Mogadishu and helping the Somali interim government drive out the loose-knit Union of Islamic Courts, which controlled the capital and much of southern Somalia.
Æthiopia also decided in 2013 to send troops to Somalia to join AMISON. In retaliation for this move, al-Shabaab renewed its call for 'jihad' against Æthiopia.
Despite this, Æthiopia has been targeted far less than Kenya and has so far managed to evade large-scale attacks.
Six years ago, Æthiopia was spared bloodshed when two Somali jacket wallahs accidentally blew themselves up in central Addis Ababa. Security officials assume they were preparing to kill football fans during Æthiopia's World Cup qualifying match against Nigeria that was to take place later that day. Back then, the country's vulnerability to holy warriors' attacks even became the subject of a written question in the Europe
 ...the land mass occupying the space between the English Channel and the Urals, also known as Moslem Lebensraum...
an Parliament.
ÆTHIOPIA ARRESTS KRAZED KILLERS
In September this year, however, Æthiopian security officials announced the arrest of a number of alleged al-Shabaab suspects. The suspects aimed to attack "hotels, religious festivities, gathering places and public areas" in the capital Addis Ababa, Ormomia and Æthiopia's Somali region, according to a statement by the country's National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) read out on state television
... and if you can't believe state television who can you believe?
.
NISS did not specify how many people it detained, but the state broadcaster reported that it was 12. The suspects were said to have entered Æthiopia through Djibouti and Somalia, as well as the breakaway state of Somaliland.
Berhanu Jula, deputy chief of Æthiopia’s military, told the state-owned Æthiopian News Agency that there is evidence al-Shabaab "has recruited, trained and armed some Æthiopians."
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had also recently warned about attempts by the Somalia-based al-Shabaab hard boyz to make inroads into Æthiopia, according to the News Agency that Dare Not be Named news agency.
IS AL-SHABAAB TAKING ADVANTAGE OF POLITICAL CHANGES?
Al-Shabaab could be benefiting from increasing ethnic violence and the fraught political transition sweeping the country since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ushered in a series of reforms when he came to power in April 2018.
"There were highly significant political changes in Æthiopia that led to wholesale changes in the federal government leadership and the leadership of the security apparatus as well," said William Davison, Senior Analyst for Æthiopia at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.
"The security posts have been re-staffed and it takes time for such a system to be rebuilt."
It could be that al-Shabaab perceives the security apparatus as weak as a result, and is seeking to take advantage of this, Davison said.
As such, the arrests and the televised statement about them could be read as the Æthiopian government putting its ability to fight terrorism on display.
However,
some people cause happiness wherever they go; others whenever they go...
there is still no clear indication of the identity of the detainees or the circumstances, Davison said.
Under the previous regime, international observers were concerned with how the government used the fight on terror to crack down on dissent, Davison pointed out.
There's currently no sign of that, but he criticizes that even though the anti-terror law has been revised, the broad scope of what "encouraging terrorism" means under that law makes it "open to be used against political dissidents by the authorities." 
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Posted by trailing wife 2019-10-17 00:00||
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