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2019-10-08 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
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What would an all-out war between Turkey and the SDF entail?
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| Key bits from a longer piece: |
[Rudaw] According to Dr Micha’el Tanchum, a senior fellow at the Austrian Institute for Europe
...the land mass occupying the space between the English Channel and the Urals, also known as Moslem Lebensraum...
an and Security Studies (AIES), a large-scale Ottoman Turkish invasion "risks Ankara becoming mired in a quagmire that may also spread north of the border".
"By maintaining military positions across Syria and in Iraq, The Sick Man of Europe Turkey
 ...the decaying remnant of the Ottoman Empire...
is stretching its need for force protection against guerrilla operations," Tanchum told Rudaw English.
Turkey has expanded its operations against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq since early 2018. It established several new forward operating bases in areas where the PKK is active. From August 2018, it has also had some success in killing senior PKK members through targeted air and dronezaps, a first in the decades-long conflict.
In May it launched Operation Claw against the group, which after three different phases is still ongoing as of writing.
Tanchum believes that a major war in northeast Syria could see a convergence of sorts, with the SDF fighting Turkey in northeast Syria while the PKK also fights Ottoman Turkish forces in southeast Turkey and possibly even in the Kurdistan Region simultaneously.
"Turkey has no shortage of adversaries who would fund and supply guerrillas for such a campaign," he said, adding that "much will depend" on what kind of arrangements Turkey has made with Russia, the Syrian regime and Iran.
"The greatest threat would be concurrent guerrilla campaigns against Turkey in northern Syria and within southern Turkey itself," he said.
Tanchum offers the precedent of youth militias in Turkey’s Kurdish regions back in 2015.
"Turkey could face another popular uprising spearheaded by similar militias in the southeast," he said.
Tanchum noted that the YPG ‐ the main component of the multiethnic SDF ‐ has had "close to a year to prepare for the eventuality of a Ottoman Turkish invasion".
"There have been reports of extensive tunnel building in northeast Syria," he said.
"Turkey’s administration of a large swath of northern Syria may prove more costly than Ankara anticipates, depending on the response of Kurds on both sides of the border." 
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Posted by trailing wife 2019-10-08 00:00||
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