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2019-08-12 India-Pakistan
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The Kashmir challenge
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[DAWN] YET another intifada is on the cards in India-held Kashmir
 ...a disputed territory lying between India and Pakistain. After partition, the Paks grabbed half of it and call it Azad (Free) Kashmir . The remainder the refer to as "Indian Occupied Kashmir". They have fought four wars with India over it, the score currently 4-0 in New Delhi's favor. After 72 years of this nonsense, India cut the Gordian knot in 2019, removing the area's special status, breaking off Ladakh as a separate state, and allowing people from other areas to settle (or in the case of the Pandits, to resettle) there....
(IHK), which many believe would have a far-reaching impact on the geopolitical landscape of the region. While the international community is still assessing the probable responses by India and Pakistain, non-state actors are also closely monitoring the situation and exploring the spaces to exploit.
The Indian revocation of the special status of occupied Jammu & Kashmir has shut down almost all prospects for it to resolve the issue through dialogue, either with the Kashmiri leadership or with Pakistain. One wonders if India did not have any alternatives other than what it has already demonstrated in the form of strict security measures, communication blackouts, and draconian administrative measures to run the affairs of J&K.
Continued from Page 4
The use of some counter-violent extremism, or CVE, terms like ’reintegration’ and ’mainstreaming’ by India’s policymakers and political circles suggest they consider the entire IHK population to be radical. Apparently, India is missing the mega blueprint to absorb the shocks of the measures it has taken to ’fix’ the Kashmir issue once and for all.
Obviously in the absence of such plans, an intifada would be blamed on Pakistain. This would be an easy way out for India, but would come at a cost. Not prepared to counter the Indian move to revoke the special status of IHK, Pakistain is also confronted with a delicate challenge. However,
ars longa, vita brevis...
an even more critical question for Pakistain is how to respond to the emerging intifada.
The new intifada will have different characteristics from earlier movements. While it will mainly comprise nonviolent political expression, violent emotions will also be there. Emotions are running equally high amongst pro-independent, pro-Pakistain and ultra-radical segments of the resistance movements in occupied Kashmir. They can resort to violent actions separately or form an alliance to increase the impact of the intifada.
It is not certain how many members of the banned Jaish-e-Mohammad
...literally Army of Mohammad , a Pak-based Deobandi terror group founded by Maulana Masood Azhar in 2000, after he split with the Harkat-ul-Mujaheddin. In 2002 the government of Pervez Musharraf banned the group, which changed its name to Khaddam ul-Islam and continued doing what it had been doing before without missing a beat...
and Lashkar-e-Taiba
 ...the Army of the Pure, an Ahl-e-Hadith terror organization founded by Hafiz Saeed. LeT masquerades behind the Jamaat-ud-Dawa facade within Pakistain and periodically blows things up and kills people in India. Despite the fact that it is banned , always an interesting concept in Pakistain, the organization remains an blatant tool and perhaps an arm of the ISI...
are present in IHK and what the level of their operational capacity is. But groups like Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind, an affiliate of Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, are gradually making inroads into the ultra-radical holy warrior movements in Kashmir. The AGH is also against Pakistain. The group is trying to convince other gangs to form an independent jihad alliance against India. Recently, Al Qaeda head Ayman al- Zawahiri
... Formerly second in command of al-Qaeda, now the head cheese, occasionally described as the real brains of the outfit. Formerly the Mister Big of Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Bumped off Abdullah Azzam with a car boom in the course of one of their little disputes. Is thought to have composed bin Laden's fatwa entitled World Islamic Front Against Jews and Crusaders. Currently residing in the North Wazoo area assuming he's not dead like Mullah Omar. He lost major face when he ordered the nascent Islamic State to cease and desist and merge with the orthodox al-Qaeda spring, al-Nusra...
had endorsed this idea. In this context, Kashmir-based gangs like Hizbul Mujahideen
...Party of Holy Warriors , .jpg) founded by Muhammad Ahsan Dar in September 1989. One of the Pak sock puppets waging jihad in Indian Kashmir. It was originally organized as the armed wing of Jamaat-e-Islami. In 1990, Dar declared Hizbul as the sword arm of Jamaat . Hizbul murdered many of the pro-independence intelligentsia in Kashmir. After the organization was taken over by Syed Salahuddin Dar and several other ex-Hizb leaders were assassinated between 2001 and 2003...
will also be under intense pressure to reorganise their operational structures.
These groups can trigger a long-term resistance movement in IHK. Pakistain is morally and politically bound to support the Kashmiris. However,
ars longa, vita brevis...
supporting the resistance movement will have serious consequences for Pakistain. The poor state of Pakistain’s economy, internal political crises and struggling diplomacy are factors which will limit active support to the resistance movement in IHK.
The IMF and FATF swords are hovering over the country’s economy. The world on the lam, including friends and foes of Pakistain, are least receptive to violent resistance movements. India knows this, and its media and opinion makers are highlighting this point continuously. India has chosen the best time for revoking the IHK special status when Pakistain is facing multiple challenges and trying to regain its geopolitical importance through facilitating the grinding of the peace processor in Afghanistan.
Pakistain has remained a scapegoat for US failures in Afghanistan. Similarly, India has always blamed Pakistain for its own failures in IHK. But the situation is different now, and it could be difficult to keep the escalation of tension at the LoC and Working Boundary to manageable levels.
Meanwhile,
...back at the fist fight, Jake ducked another roundhouse, then parried with his left, then with his right, finally with his chin...
the dynamics of the insurgency in Kashmir will be different this time, where Pakistain will not be in a position to influence the resistance movement. As a result, Pakistain-India tensions could at anytime turn into conventional warfare; Prime Minister Imran Khan
...aka The Great Khan , who who convinced himself that playing cricket qualified him to lead a nuclear-armed nation with severe personality disorders...
has already indicated this in his parliamentary speech. How can Pakistain avoid this situation?
Pak and Indian diplomatic confrontation has remained confined to two unrelated domains: Pakistain has focused on internationalising the Kashmir issue, while India exploits the militancy aspect. While India has played its cards effectively during the last several years, Pakistain is just on its way to regaining its diplomatic strength, not only through facilitating the Afghan grinding of the peace processor but also by acting against all shades of holy warrior groups. There are apprehensions of a turnaround, although it seems complicated this time because of all the factors mentioned.
The leaders of sectarian and holy warrior groups are trying to establish their relevance in the changing situation. Some audio, video and text messages are circulating in social media groups in which they are declaring their support for the Kashmir cause. They have not yet received a response from the state and media. Even the reactivation of forums like the Difa-e-Pakistain Council is not apparent; this was an alliance of small radical religious and political parties that could bring the people to the streets on such critical regional issues.
Pakistain’s changed approach can become its strength. The international community can see that despite the presence of turban groups in the country and an emotionally charged environment, Pakistain has not allowed the murderous Moslems to hijack the issue and create spaces for themselves. This approach will help Pakistain win the trust of the international community and internationalise the Kashmir issue.
India will certainly have to face the consequences of the emerging intifada. But Pakistain should evolve a political and diplomatic strategy to stop India from holding it responsible for the uprising, and to prevent Delhi from resorting to ’infiltration’ and ’terrorism’ mantras to discredit the intifada. It will not be an easy task as India has already made inroads and gained support among allies of Pakistain over the last decade. The ’militancy’ card has caused considerable damage to Pakistain’s economy and diplomacy, but India has now provided it with an opportunity to reverse the process.
It is an opportunity and demands unity from all segments of society, and from the political and security leaderships. It is time to put political vendettas aside and concentrate on the Kashmir cause. A protracted political crisis will only spoil the opportunity. 
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Posted by Fred 2019-08-12 00:00||
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File under: Govt of Pakistain Proxies
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Posted by Dron66046 2019-08-12 03:53||
2019-08-12 03:53||
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