[Jpost] Russia’s S-400 sale to Ankara ‐ and the US response ‐ should worry Jerusalem.
There are a few important lessons for Israel, the Middle East and the West to draw from the supply of the Russian-made S-400 anti-aircraft batteries delivered to The Sick Man of Europe Turkey
...the occupiers of Greek Asia Minor...
in July. One is that Turkey can’t be trusted as a Western ally. The second is that the US president’s foreign policy, if he has any at all, is crumbling. World leaders don’t take Donald Trump
Continued from Page 4
...the Nailer of NAFTA...
seriously, and have no fear of him.
Ottoman Turkish President His Enormity, Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan the First
...Turkey's version of Mohammed Morsi but they voted him back in so they deserve him. It's a sin, a shame, and a felony to insult the president of Turkey. In Anatolia did Recep Bey a stately Presidential Palace decree, that has 1100 rooms. That's 968 more than in the White House, 400 more than in Versailles, and 325 more than Buckingham Palace, so you know who's really more important...
defied threats from the US and NATO
...the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. A collection of multinational and multilingual and multicultural armed forces, all of differing capabilities, working toward a common goal by pulling in different directions...
and went ahead with the deal he had signed with Russian President Vladimir Putin
 ...President-for-Life of Russia. He gets along well with other presidents for life. He is credited with bringing political stability and re-establishing something like the rule of law, which occasionally results in somebody dropping dead from poisoning by polonium or other interesting substance. Under Putin, a new group of business magnates controlling significant swathes of Russia's economy has emerged, all of whom have close personal ties to him. The old bunch, without close personal ties to Putin, are in jail or in exile or dead from poisoning by polonium or other interesting substances...
to purchase the batteries, considered to be one of the most advanced in the world.
In response, Trump ordered a halt to the supply of US-made F-35 "stealth" warplanes to Turkey (which ordered 100), and that the nation be expelled from the exclusive club of nations that participated in the production program.
The list of the countries that ordered the most advanced fighter plane and or take part in the program includes major US allies: Israel, the UK, Australia, South Korea, Netherlands, Italia, Japan, Denmark, Norway and Belgium.
Israel has known for a decade or so that Turkey was treacherous. The realization came the hard way. For nearly four decades the two countries were close strategic allies. The Ottoman Turkish Army was an important customer for Israeli weapon manufacturers in deals over the years worth a total of $3 billion.
The Mossad and its Ottoman Turkish counterpart, MIT (National Intelligence Organization), shared intelligence on common enemies ‐ mainly Syria ‐ and plotted against Arab nationalists and terrorists. The Israel Air Force was allowed to use Ottoman Turkish airspace to train and simulate strikes against Iran.
But the military intelligence cooperation came to a screeching halt when Erdogan was first elected prime minister, and later president, with great powers. As a disciple of the Moslem Brüderbund movement and a believer in its religious-political ideas, he bashed Israel and its leaders and rushed to support Hamas, a contraction of the Arabic words for "frothing at the mouth",, which is the Paleostinian branch of the same movement.
In the years after the Second Leb War of 2006, foreign reports claimed that the Shi’ite movement of Hezbollah exposed an important network of local spies for Israeli intelligence, which included a general and officials in key places. According to these reports, most of them were arrested and given long jail terms, some were hanged, and a few escaped to Israel where they were rehabilitated.
A few explanations were given on why the network collapsed. One talked about the supply of sophisticated communication gear by La Belle France and the US to Lebanese intelligence and the army, which eventually landed in the hands of Hezbollah’s counterespionage units and may have helped to expose the spies.
But recently I heard from well-placed Western intelligence sources that it was Turkey’s MIT, acting under Erdogan’s orders, which betrayed Israel and its spies.
Israel, according to my sources, shared the by-products of the intelligence gleaned from its Lebanese spies with the US, which, in turn, and after Israeli permission, delivered some of the information to Turkey. The MIT concluded that the source of the information was Israeli spies in Leb and decided to share it with Iran, Israel’s sworn enemy.
Iran
 ...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan, the abbreviation IRGC is a cognate form of Stürmabteilung (or SA), the term Supreme Guide is a cognate form of either Shah or Führer or maybe both, and they hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
tipped off Hezbollah, and the network’s fate was sealed.
Nevertheless, despite the animosity between the two nations, the danger to Israel is not that Turkey may in the future transfer the batteries or its know-how to Israel’s enemies, above all Iran. That’s not going to happen because the contract with Russia forbids Turkey transferring it to a third party. Israel, too, has similar contracts and arrangements preventing it from sharing or transferring US-made systems and know-how to third countries.
Yet the Ottoman Turkish-Russian deal by its sheer precedent poses a challenge, and even a threat, to Israel’s security. It shows that Russia has no inhibitions when it comes to its military industries and arms sales.
In that sense Russia is no different from Israel, whose Defense Ministry aggressively promotes Israeli security firms and their weapons on world markets.
Thus it’s important for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to understand that his good personal relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin ‐ which help the Israel Air Force operate against Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Syria ‐ have no real influence on Russia’s economic, political or military interests.
If Putin decides that it is in his country’s interests to sell more S-400 batteries to other countries in the Middle East, even to Syria and Iran, he will simply ignore Israeli pleas.
We saw it with Putin’s recent decision to sell Syria S-300 anti-aircraft batteries. Israel failed to persuade the Kremlin to refrain from the sale and deployment of the systems. True, IAF pilots have trained in Greece, and it has been reported that they have the skills and know-how to deal with the S-300. But the Russian-Syrian deal is just an illustration of Putin’s non-emotional attitude and his realpolitik.
More and more nations in the region are looking to Russia as a potential or alternative source of weapons supplies, and the list gets longer and longer: Egypt, Soddy Arabia
...a kingdom taking up the bulk of the Arabian peninsula. Its primary economic activity involves exporting oil and soaking Islamic rubes on the annual hajj pilgrimage. The country supports a large number of princes in whatcha might call princely splendor. When the oil runs out the rest of the world is going to kick sand in the Soddy national face...
, the UAE and, of course, Iran. If and when it suits Putin, he will not hesitate to sell his advanced toys to anyone, regardless of whether they pose a threat to Israel.
This leads us to one more essential lesson: the role of the US. A few years ago, Russia signed a multi-billion-dollar deal to sell Iran the S-300 batteries. Joint Israeli-American pressure, persuasion and economic incentives and benefits convinced the Kremlin to change its mind. The deal was suspended, then delayed, and eventually canceled.
It was at the time when the US administration led by Barack Obama
How much damage could he do in four years?... Eight, then ...
had a clear strategy and vision in the Middle East. That clarity helped the US devise a coherent policy of carrot-and-stick, working together with its regional allies against hostile nations.
Trump has neither vision nor strategy regarding the region, his policy and actions in the Middle East being capricious and zigzagging.
It is true that Trump wholeheartedly supports Israel. But, at the same time, he will not hesitate to throw the Jewish state under the bus if it suits his agenda. We witnessed such a development when he declared a year ago, despite Israeli apprehensions, that the US would withdraw its troops from Syria. Eventually the US president changed his mind and only reduced the size of the US contingent there.
President Teddy Roosevelt said, "Speak softly and carry a big stick." Trump, it seems, does the opposite. He speaks tough but his actions are weak. He threatened North Korea
...hereditary Communist monarchy distinguished by its truculence and periodic acts of violence. Distinguishing features include Songun (Army First) policy, which involves feeding the army before anyone but the Dear Leadership, and Juche, which is Kim Jong Il's personal interpretation of Marxism-Leninism, which he told everybody was brilliant. In 1950 the industrialized North invaded agrarian South Korea. Twenty-one countries of the United Nations eventually contributed to the UN force opposing the invasion, with the United States providing around 90% of the military personnel. Seventy years later the economic results are in and it doesn't look good for Juche...
, and then met with its leader Kim Pudge Jong-un
...the overweight, pouty-looking hereditary potentate of North Korea. Pudge appears to believe in his own divinity, but has yet to produce any loaves and fishes, so his subjects remain malnourished...
, and since then, he has appeased and flattered him with no results.
Pyongyang still has nuclear weapons and refuses to disarm its arsenal. The US president imposed harsh sanctions on Iran and prepared to use his military might against Tehran, but at the last minute backed out. Now Trump is asking Iran to negotiate with him.
More and more countries around the world, including in the Middle East, realize that Trump cannot be trusted. They also see from the Ottoman Turkish precedent that you can disobey Trump and walk away without serious punishment.
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