 [ELUNIVERSAL] In the opinion of the firm Torino Economics, 2019 will be a year of deepening deterioration (already galloping of the economy), to such an extent that they determine that the "monetization of the deficit will continue to drive inflation, which will reach a figure close to 23,000,000%. "
In their first report of the year, they point out that there will be a "GDP contraction of 11.8%, for an accumulated fall of 51.8% since 2013."
They consider it "almost impossible" to apply measures for a "successful (economic) stabilization".
"Venezuela will continue to accumulate current account surpluses, given that it does not have access to external financing. These funds are destined to the payment of debts with China, Russia, holders of the Pdvsa 2020 bond and some ICSID arbitration processes such as the Gold Reserve, ConocoPhillips and Crystallex cases. We calculate that, in order to amortize these debts, the country paid $ 7.9 billion in 2018, which consumed a good part of the current account surplus of 2017, "they specify.
They extend that the accumulation of surpluses will be difficult after 2019, when the scarcity of foreign exchange due to the fall in oil production and the fall in prices begins to take effect.
"We expect exports to fall from $ 30.1 billion to $ 20.7 billion, a reduction of 31.2%." Maintaining the same surplus would require reducing imports by $ 10 billion, which is not possible, imports of goods and services will fall. $ 4.5 billion, according to Torino's projections, so the current account surplus will go from $ 5.7 billion in 2018 to just $ 2.4 billion this year.
"The implication of this is that Venezuela will be able to serve even less debt in 2019 than it could pay in 2018. In other words, excluding the possibility of a significant recovery in oil prices or production, we believe that Venezuela will go into default with some creditors who have so far found a way to pay them, "says the Torino Economics report.
According to AN figures, inflation closed in 2018 at 1,689,488.2%.
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