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2017-08-06 Israel-Palestine-Jordan
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Reasons the Temple Mount crisis did not explode
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[Jpost] The crisis that began three weeks ago with the murder of two border policeman near the Temple Mount did not ignite ‐ for the time being ‐ a third intifada.
Within a week, the country’s headlines shifted from the crisis on the Temple Mount to reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s once-trusted aide Ari Harow was about to turn state’s witness.
Within seven days, the palpable tension a jittery nation felt last week ‐ over whether the Friday Moslem prayers at al-Aksa Mosque would trigger a third intifada ‐ gave way to other news: Harow; Elor Azaria; the plight of the workers at Haifa Chemicals and at Teva; the Gay pride parade in Jerusalem; the Facebook feud between Netanyahu’s son, Yair, and Ariel Olmert, the son of Ehud Olmert, triggered by the younger Netanyahu’s alleged failure to pick up after his dog.
Continued from Page 4
In other words, the Temple Mount Crisis has ‐ for the time being ‐ been contained.
The emphasis here must be on the words "for the time being," because the situation is still highly unstable and could change any minute. But, at least at this particular moment, the crisis that began three weeks ago with the murder of two border policeman near the Temple Mount ‐ and snowballed into a full blown crisis with the installation and later removal of metal detectors at the site ‐ did not ignite a third intifada.
Why not? Why did this crisis not trigger the same paroxysm of violence that the opening of the Western Wall tunnels did in 1996; that Ariel Sharon’s visit to the Temple Mount did in 2000; or the lie that the Jews were planning to take over the Temple Mount did in 2015?
There are a number of reasons. The first has to do with the wider power play throughout the Middle East. Former National Security Council deputy head Eran Lerman has in the past divided the region into four camps ‐ Iran, Islamic State
...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling Allah around with every other sentence, but to hear the pols talk they're not really Moslems....
, the Moslem Brüderbund, and the Camp of Stability ‐ saying that each of these is vying for control of the Middle East.
According to Lerman, all the struggles in the region ‐ from Libya to Yemen
...an area of the Arabian Peninsula sometimes mistaken for a country. It is populated by more antagonistic tribes and factions than you can keep track of. Except for a tiny handfull of Jews everthing there is very Islamic...
and culminating in Syria ‐ can be seen through the prism of this titanic battle between the camps for Mideast hegemony.
But one not need look as far afield as Libya, Yemen or Syria to see this competition; it can also be seen in Jerusalem.
Islamic State was not a player in the recent events in Jerusalem, but the other three camps were. The Iran and the Moslem Brüderbund camps, on one hand, had an interest in inflaming the passions and creating chaos and violence, while the countries in the Camp of Stability ‐ states like Israel, Jordan, Soddy Arabia
...a kingdom taking up the bulk of the Arabian peninsula. Its primary economic activity involves exporting oil and soaking Islamic rubes on the annual hajj pilgrimage. The country supports a large number of princes in whatcha might call princely splendor. When the oil runs out the rest of the world is going to kick sand in the Soddy national face...
and Egypt ‐ had an interest in containing the violence.
Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt have no interest now in fanning the flames of a holy war in Jerusalem, because that could stir up passions which may be difficult to control in their own street. It could also deflect attention from their primary fights with Iran and radical Islamic terrorism.
The Moslem Brüderbund camp ‐ which includes Hamas, a contraction of the Arabic words for "frothing at the mouth",, The Sick Man of Europe Turkey
...the only place on the face of the earth that misses the Ottoman Empire....
and Qatar
...an emirate on the east coast of the Arabian Peninsula. It sits on some really productive gas and oil deposits, which produces the highest per capita income in the world. They piss it all away on religion, financing the Moslem Brotherhood and several al-Qaeda affiliates...
‐ did have an interest in fanning the flames. Thus there were the calls from Hamas for violence and "days of rage" and the incendiary comments by Ottoman Turkish President Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan the First
... Turkey's version of Mohammed Morsi but they voted him back in so they deserve him...
In this "Game of the Camps," the Paleostinian Authority sees itself in the Camp of Stability. And it wants to be seen as on the side of the Saudis, Jordanians and Egyptians, rather than on the side of Iran or Hamas. The problem is that this also put them on the side of Israel, not a comfortable place for them to be.
Paleostinian Authority President the ineffectual Mahmoud Abbas
... a graduate of the prestigious unaccredited Patrice Lumumba University in Moscow with a doctorate in Holocaust Denial...
cut off security cooperation with Israel. And Fatah ‐ like Hamas ‐ called for days of rage. But Abbas stepped back from calling for a full-blown uprising over the issue, heeding reported calls from the Saudis, Jordanians and Egyptians to contain the crisis.
There are two other points to note in asking why the Temple Mount crisis did not spiral into a third intifada.
The first is an apparent lack of will on the Paleostinian street; the second is a lack of capability.
Regarding will, the Arab Spring of 2011 revealed the masses did not take to the streets and confront the sources of power in countries which faced huge, dramatic problems in the recent past; not in Leb, not in Algeria and not among the Paleostinians.
Some have interpreted this as evidence that those publics were still tired and worn out from their previous rounds of conflict, and that there was little appetite among the rank-and-file for more prolonged, violent confrontation that they would bear the brunt of. In short, they are not rushing out looking for new barricades to man.
And then there’s the issue of capabilities. Those who feared a third lethal intifada would erupt over the current crisis with the same degree of violence had forgotten that much has changed since the second intifada flared 17 years ago.
The Paleostinian weapons factories, the bomb-making workshops ‐ the pure amounts of weaponry that existed in the West Bank back in 2000 ‐ are not there now anywhere near to the same degree they were then. Endless IDF raids looking for weapons, factories and suspects have left their mark on capabilities.
The desire among some Paleostinians to blow up buses and kill Jews has not been extinguished. What has changed is their ability to manufacture the bombs and boom jackets ‐ and the ability to smuggle them, along with the Death Eaters to trigger their weapons, into Israel. The Paleostinians don’t have the lethal capabilities now which they had in 2000.
That is why the weapon of choice of Paleostinians Death Eaters these days is a butcher knife. Those the IDF cannot get rid of. 
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Posted by trailing wife 2017-08-06 00:00||
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Posted by g(r)omgoru 2017-08-06 03:40||
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Posted by phil_b 2017-08-06 04:29||
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