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2017-06-21 -Land of the Free
New study supports Trump: 5.7 million noncitizens may have cast illegal votes
[WashingtonTimes] A research group in New Jersey has taken a fresh look at postelection polling data and concluded that the number of noncitizens voting illegally in U.S. elections is likely far greater than previous estimates.

As many as 5.7 million noncitizens may have voted in the 2008 election, which put Barack Obama in the White House.

The research organization Just Facts, a widely cited, independent think tank led by self-described conservatives and libertarians, revealed its number-crunching in a report on national immigration.

Continued from Page 6



Just Facts President James D. Agresti and his team looked at data from an extensive Harvard/YouGov study that every two years questions a sample size of tens of thousands of voters. Some acknowledge they are noncitizens and are thus ineligible to vote.

Just Facts’ conclusions confront both sides in the illegal voting debate: those who say it happens a lot and those who say the problem nonexistent.

In one camp, there are groundbreaking studies by professors at Old Dominion University in Virginia who attempted to compile scientifically derived illegal voting numbers using the Harvard data, called the Cooperative Congressional Election Study.

On the other side are the professors who conducted the study and contended that “zero” noncitizens of about 18 million adults in the U.S. voted. The liberal mainstream media adopted this position and proclaimed the Old Dominion work was “debunked.”

The ODU professors, who stand by their work in the face of attacks from the left, concluded that in 2008 as few as 38,000 and as many as 2.8 million noncitizens voted.

Mr. Agresti’s analysis of the same polling data settled on much higher numbers. He estimated that as many as 7.9 million noncitizens were illegally registered that year and 594,000 to 5.7 million voted.

These numbers are more in line with the unverified estimates given by President Trump, who said the number of ballots cast by noncitizens was the reason he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton.

Last month, the president signed an executive order setting up a commission to try to find on-the-ground truth in illegal voting. Headed by Vice President Mike Pence, the panel also will look at outdated voter lists across the nation with names of dead people and multiple registrants.

For 2012, Just Facts said, 3.2 million to 5.6 million noncitizens were registered to vote and 1.2 million to 3.6 million of them voted.
Why so many fewer?
Mr. Agresti lays out his reasoning in a series of complicated calculations, which he compares to U.S. Census Bureau figures for noncitizen residents. Polls show noncitizens vote overwhelmingly Democratic.

“The details are technical, but the figure I calculated is based on a more conservative margin of sampling error and a methodology that I consider to be more accurate,” Mr. Agresti told The Washington Times.

He believes the Harvard/YouGov researchers based their “zero” claim on two flawed assumptions. First, they assumed that people who said they voted and identified a candidate did not vote unless their names showed up in a database.

“This is illogical, because such databases are unlikely to verify voters who use fraudulent identities, and millions of noncitizens use them,” Mr. Agresti said.
He cites government audits that show large numbers of noncitizens use false IDs and Social Security numbers in order to function in the U.S., which could include voting.

Second, Harvard assumed that respondent citizens sometimes misidentified themselves as noncitizens but also concluded that noncitizens never misidentified themselves as citizens, Mr. Agresti said.

“This is irrational, because illegal immigrants often claim they are citizens in order to conceal the fact that they are in the U.S. illegally,” he said.

Some of the polled noncitizens denied they were registered to vote when publicly available databases show that they were, he said.

This conclusion, he said, is backed by the Harvard/YouGov study’s findings of consumer and vote data matches for 90 percent of participants but only 41 percent of noncitizen respondents.

As to why his numbers are higher than the besieged ODU professors’ study, Mr. Agresti said: “I calculated the margin of sampling error in a more cautious way to ensure greater confidence in the results, and I used a slightly different methodology that I think is more accurate.”

There is hard evidence outside of polling that noncitizens do vote. Conservative activists have conducted limited investigations in Maryland and Virginia that found thousands of aliens were registered.

These inquiries, such as comparing noncitizen jury pool rejections to voter rolls, captured just a snapshot. But conservatives say they show there is a much broader problem that a comprehensive probe by the Pence commission could uncover.

The Public Interest Legal Foundation, which fights voter fraud, released one of its most comprehensive reports last month.

Its investigation found that Virginia removed more than 5,500 noncitizens from voter lists, including 1,852 people who had cast more than 7,000 ballots. The people volunteered their status, most likely when acquiring driver’s licenses. The Public Interest Legal Foundation said there are likely many more illegal voters on Virginia’s rolls who have never admitted to being noncitizens.
Posted by Bright Pebbles 2017-06-21 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11130 views ]  Top

#1 So allowing illegal voters is fine, but allegations of Russian hacking that may have gone against liberals is not. Got it.
Posted by gorb 2017-06-21 00:26||   2017-06-21 00:26|| Front Page Top

#2 Of course, anything against libs is unfair. They get butthurt easily.
Posted by chris 2017-06-21 03:00||   2017-06-21 03:00|| Front Page Top

#3 As many as 5.7 million noncitizens may have voted in the 2008 election, which put Barack Obama in the White House.

Can we nullify the 2008 and 2012 election?
Posted by JohnQC 2017-06-21 06:48||   2017-06-21 06:48|| Front Page Top

#4 A lot of non citizens are legal and they are also ineligible to vote.

Also, felons may cast illegal ballots fairly easily and ballot counters may miss it.

Also, people can pose as a voter fairly easily, especially on mail in voting.

Also people may vote twice in different states or may cast votes for deceased voters still on the voting roles.

In 2008 and 2012, illegally assisted voting (e.g., people in the ballot area instructing voters)was also common. In fact there were actually admissions (or bragging) statements about this.

The problem of measuring the scale. Each one of these illegal vote types requires different methodologies to check and even the best 'after the fact' studies will have enormous error bands (if it is an honest study), except the felon, double state and deceased votes which, if everyone in all states cooperates, can be determined to considerable accuracy.
Posted by lord garth 2017-06-21 09:46||   2017-06-21 09:46|| Front Page Top

#5 At every level of government, there is this elephant in the room that all avoid when talking about enforcement on illegal voting, entitlement fraud, illegal aliens in the workforce etc. Its so utterly simple it seems impossible to understand. Cross reference everything against an open Social Security database and simply require that number to be used for voting, work, taxes, travel, drivers licenses, etc. Imagine how many tax returns the IRS gets against a single number when illegals use it. Do they contact ICE? Apparently not. I must be missing something here?
Posted by NoMoreBS 2017-06-21 11:05||   2017-06-21 11:05|| Front Page Top

#6 Jeh Johnson is testifying right now before the House Intel Committee on Russian hacking. He is making a pitch for stronger centralized control in elections. He is not saying anything about purging the rolls, requiring voter ID, getting rid of Motor Voter law, checking voters against illegal alien database, multiple registrations, etc. Infuriating.

Centralized control over voting would do nothing for us but insure centralized voter fraud. It assumes the Dems are honest and don't try to rig the system.
Posted by JohnQC 2017-06-21 11:32||   2017-06-21 11:32|| Front Page Top

#7 Corruption at the heart of the voting process.
Posted by Anguper Hupomosing9418 2017-06-21 11:51||   2017-06-21 11:51|| Front Page Top

#8 It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything. Joseph Stalin
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/j/josephstal109571.html
Posted by NoMoreBS 2017-06-21 12:41||   2017-06-21 12:41|| Front Page Top

#9 Jeh Johnson is testifying right now before the House Intel Committee on Russian hacking. He is making a pitch for stronger centralized control in elections

"Central control" and planning, the dream of all despots and tin-pot tyrants. Good to see Jeh is up on his African and Latin American studies.
Posted by Besoeker 2017-06-21 13:44||   2017-06-21 13:44|| Front Page Top

#10 Pubs should use this to push for election cleanup in all states. Clean up the voter rolls, get rid of mail in ballots, make if a felony to intimate voters with machettes, extend voting hours, etc.

Tell people it is to stop the Russians.
Posted by rjschwarz 2017-06-21 15:39||   2017-06-21 15:39|| Front Page Top

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