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2016-11-26 Iraq
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Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces in Iran’s game plan
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As Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) have been closing in on Tal Afar, a town 33 miles west of Mosul, through the western Mosul axis, the organization’s top commanders have openly discussed their post-Islamic State plans to secure the border with Syria and push into the country. These senior militia commanders are closely affiliated and coordinated with Iran.
The spokesman of Iranian-backed Harakat al Nujaba vowed on Nov. 18 that the PMF, as “one of Iraq’s security institutions,” was ready to pursue the Islamic State into Syria per the request of the Syrian government and the approval of the Iraqi government and parliament.
On Nov. 16, Iranian-backed Badr Organization leader Hadi al Ameri told the press in Baghdad that Damascus had requested the PMF to deploy to Syria following the expulsion of the Islamic State from Iraq, and that the PMF would establish security by the border area, according to statements carried in Al Waght. Iraq’s Prime Minister Hayder al Abadi echoed Ameri on border security on the same day, and had announced to the media earlier that Baghdad and Damascus were coordinated for exerting border control. Abadi, however, did not immediately comment on deployment to Syria.
The PMF is a 120,000-strong army with at least 80,000 fighting under the banners of Iranian-backed militias. It is a valuable pool of manpower and recruits for Iranian-led operations. The PMF’s planned moves to establish presence by the border with Syria and shift into the war there reflect important components of Tehran’s long-term strategies in Iraq and Syria.
In Iraq, the PMF seeks to cement itself as a fabric of the state. The Iraqi Prime Minister’s order this past year to establish the PMF as an independent military institution in an effort to exercise more control already legitimizes their continued existence beyond the 2014 mandate based on the fatwa of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani to drive the Islamic State from Iraq. That threat is pressing as long as the group controls Raqqa and has a presence in Iraq. Unless Iraq can train between 50,000 – 100,000 troops, which it does not appear to have the will nor means to effectively do so, the PMF can make a strong case that its mandate is unfulfilled and that it fills security voids, pushing back against calls from certain quarters for dissolution and disarming.
The PMF’s mentors, the IRGC in Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, have reinterpreted their respective raison d’etre of guarding the revolution and resisting Israel – both entities have transformed over the course of decades into dominant military institutions with political, economic, and cultural influence. The PMF has similar aspirations to ascend in Iraq, and its key leaders who are beholden to Iran see themselves as part of the “Axis of Resistance” led by the Islamic Republic 
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Posted by Pappy 2016-11-26 00:00||
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