Rantburg

Today's Front Page   View All of Wed 05/28/2025 View Tue 05/27/2025 View Mon 05/26/2025 View Sun 05/25/2025 View Sat 05/24/2025 View Fri 05/23/2025 View Thu 05/22/2025
2015-11-03 Africa North
Russian plane crash in Sinai: What we know so far
May have been bird in the jet engine intake, may have been a bomb in the bathroom. Eventually something will be revealed.
[AlAhram] Plane broke apart in midair; external impact suspected but flight recorders show jet wasn't struck from outside; there is no direct evidence of terrorism; plane was in 'excellent' condition yet it had been previously damaged

A Russian passenger jet crashed in Egypt's Sinai on Saturday, killing all 224 people on board. The plane was travelling from Sharm El-Sheikh to St Petersburg in Russia.

Since the crash, both Russian and Egyptian officials have released a number of statements on the probable cause of the crash.

The statements, at times conflicting, are mainly speculative, since the black boxes have yet to be decoded.

The following points are taken from official statements so far:

1) The plane broke apart in midair

Russia's Interstate Aviation Committee Chief Viktor Sorochenko said on Sunday that "the disintegration [of the plane] happened in the air and the fragments are strewn over a large area."

Sorochenko was quoted by RIA-Novosti news agency while in Cairo, where he is part of an international panel of experts from Russia, Egypt, La Belle France and Ireland who are looking into the accident.

2) The pilot did not make contact with the air traffic control

Pilot Ayman El-Mokadem, who heads a separate Egyptian committee to determine the cause of the crash, made initial statements on Saturday to the effect that the pilot sensed technical failure and reported it to the air traffic controllers.

However,
there's more than one way to stuff a chicken...
 since then both Egypt's civil aviation minister and Russian officials have denied that the pilot made any emergency calls.

3) The plane was in "excellent" condition

Alexander Smirnov, deputy general director of the airline, Kogalymavia, to which the jet belonged, said at a Monday presser in Moscow that: "the plane was in excellent condition."

The Irish Aviation Authority also said on Monday the plane was registered in Ireland, and regulators there found its safety documentation in order earlier this year, AP reported.

The Airbus A321 was owned by Irish firm Willmington Trust SP Services (Dublin) Ltd and leased to Russian airline Metrojet.

The aviation authority said that because the plane was Irish-registered, "in April/May 2015, the Irish Aviation Authority conducted an annual review of the aircraft certifications in support of its annual Certificate of Airworthiness renewal process and all certifications were satisfactory at that point in time."

4) The plane was previously damaged

Kogalymavia's deputy general director for engineering, Andrei Averyanov, said on Monday that in 2001 the plane's tail section had struck the tarmac on landing but was later fully repaired.

Ayeryanov said that the 2001 incident could not have been a factor in the crash.

However,
there's more than one way to stuff a chicken...
 previous damage to a plane, even if repaired, could in rare circumstances cause a plane to crash, even decades later.

5) The only possible explanation is an external impact

"We rule out a technical fault of the plane or a pilot error," said Smirnov on Monday. "The only possible explanation could be an external impact on the airplane," he added.

But when pressed for more details about the type of impact and what could have caused it, Smirnov insisted that he was not at liberty to discuss details because the investigation was ongoing, AP reported.

He also did not explain whether he meant something had hit the plane or that some external factor caused the crash.

6) Flight recorders show the jet was not struck from outside

The Russian plane was not struck from the outside, a source in the committee analysing the flight recorders told Rooters on Monday, basing his comments on the preliminary examination of the black boxes recovered from the Airbus A321.

7) There is no direct evidence of terrorism yet

US Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said Monday he knew of no "direct evidence" that terrorism was to blame for the weekend plane crash of a Russian passenger plane in Egypt, AFP reported.

Speaking at a Washington defence summit, Clapper said it was "unlikely" that the Islamic State
...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling Allah around with every other sentence, but to hear the pols talk they're not really Moslems....
 group had the capacity to carry out such an attack, but added "I wouldn't rule it out."

"We don't have any direct evidence of a terrorist element yet," he said.

8) No cause should be ruled out

There are not yet any grounds to rule out any single theory, the Kremlin's front man Dmitry Peskov said on Monday, replying to a question about whether a terrorist attack could be to blame, Rooters reported.
Posted by trailing wife 2015-11-03 00:00:00|| || Front Page|| [11145 views ]  Top

#1 Theinvestigation's outcome may decide whether Russia = Darth Vlad will next be sending in Russian heavy forces andor SPETNATZ into Egypt + Sinai to find-n-destroy the plane's killers.

Also good for saving Egypt's COPTIC CHURCH + other Judeo-Christian denominations from Hard Boy threats = violence???
Posted by JosephMendiola 2015-11-03 01:35||   2015-11-03 01:35|| Front Page Top

#2 Bomb.
Posted by gorb 2015-11-03 02:40||   2015-11-03 02:40|| Front Page Top

#3 With all the conflicting evidence, a quantum shift is the only answer.
Posted by Shipman 2015-11-03 06:21||   2015-11-03 06:21|| Front Page Top

#4 Satellite detected heat flash at time Russian jetliner went down
Posted by Sven the pelter 2015-11-03 06:36||   2015-11-03 06:36|| Front Page Top

#5 The possibility of retribution for MH17 should not be overlooked. In fact, all potential motives should be thoroughly run to ground.
Posted by Besoeker 2015-11-03 07:43||   2015-11-03 07:43|| Front Page Top

#6 Following the Camp David accords Israel built super-sophisticated ectronics posts in the Negev on an escarpment that overlooks the Sinai. It was the first to use aerostats for that purpose. I would think that if anyone had a clue as to the disintegration of the airliner it would be Israel.
Posted by Beldar Phinese2093 2015-11-03 08:33||   2015-11-03 08:33|| Front Page Top

#7 Smoking in the bathroom.
Posted by Skidmark 2015-11-03 09:45||   2015-11-03 09:45|| Front Page Top

#8 Airspace violence...
Posted by M. Murcek 2015-11-03 12:26||   2015-11-03 12:26|| Front Page Top

#9 Bird into the intake would be a little far-fetched (although some birds do fly at flight-level altitudes.), but it would disable the engine, not break up the a/c.

My kopecks are on on-board rapid decompression from structural failure. The question is how it originated.
Posted by Vast Right Wing Conspiracy 2015-11-03 13:02||   2015-11-03 13:02|| Front Page Top

#10 if it was an in cabin bomb or outside missile forensic investigation would probably discover it

a bomb near the fuel tank would be a bit more difficult to discover

Posted by lord garth 2015-11-03 14:49||   2015-11-03 14:49|| Front Page Top

#11 Latest on FOX is reporting no evidence of any sort of explosion, but I am leaning on that rather than structural failure and unless it was a Blackbird, do not see that as a cause of this magnitude. lost lots of motors and even windscreens to ducks, geese, buzzards, but always got the aircraft back, basically in one, albeit bloody piece. Even had a lawn dart and a tomcat each hit by Bambi. hornet lost its nose gear and both motors to fod, but came home and the tomcat just lost a brake line.

Posted by USN, Ret. 2015-11-03 22:46||   2015-11-03 22:46|| Front Page Top

09:11 Mercutio
09:07 AlmostAnonymous5839
08:52 Matt
08:24 Matt
08:20 SteveS
07:43 Procopius2k
07:42 BrerRabbit
07:42 Procopius2k
07:39 Procopius2k
07:36 Procopius2k
07:35 Procopius2k
07:34 trailing wife
07:31 Procopius2k
07:30 NN2N1
07:22 NN2N1
07:18 trailing wife
07:14 Richard Aubrey
07:10 NN2N1
07:09 Besoeker
07:03 NN2N1
06:58 NN2N1
06:58 Besoeker
05:28 Whiskey Mike
05:23 Whiskey Mike









Paypal:
Google
Search WWW Search rantburg.com