Aug. 16th (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures rose to a record $46.75 a barrel on concern supply from Venezuela, the fourth- largest exporter to the U.S., may be disrupted by violence after a gunman fired on voters in yesterday's referendum.
One person was killed and another 12 injured in Venezuela's capital of Caracas as they stood in line to vote on whether to recall President Hugo Chavez. Petroleos de Venezuela, the state oil company, doubled security at its fields, refineries and storage tanks before the vote.
``If there's more problems there, the market, being fairly nervous, will probably trade it up a bit more,'' David Thurtell, commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney, said before trading resumed.
Crude oil for September delivery rose as much as 17 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $46.75 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $46.53 at 8:59 a.m. Singapore time.
On Friday, September crude rose $1.08, or 2.4 percent, to $46.58 a barrel, the highest close since oil began trading in New York in 1983. Prices reached $46.65, a then intraday record.
Oil prices rose 6 percent last week and are up 51 percent from a year ago. Fifty-seven percent of traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News Thursday expected prices to rise this week. Twenty-eight of the 49 survey respondents predicted the rally would continue this week. Ten expected prices to fall and 11 said oil futures would be little changed.
`Fear Factor'
Fighting in Iraq and a legal battle between Russia and OAO Yukos Oil Co. also threaten supplies. Previous attempts to oust the 50-year-old Chavez, including a military coup and a national strike, sparked deadly protests.
``There is a fear factor that something may go wrong after the referendum,'' said Gal Luft, executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, a Washington-based think tank specializing in energy security. ``Either way, it's going to be very unpredictable and no one wants to see the boat rocked,'' Luft said before voting started yesterday.
Chavez's current term runs until 2006. Should he lose the referendum vote, a new election will be held within 30 days. The president has already announced plans to run.
Venezuela was the fourth-biggest source of U.S. crude-oil imports during the first five months of the year, according to the Energy Department. Oil Minster Rafael Ramirez said Friday that oil workers won't accept a Chavez defeat.
``If Venezuela enters into a period of instability, I don't see a ceiling to prices,'' Ramirez said.
Violence
Bullets sprayed from a vehicle passing near a line of voters in the eastern Petare neighborhood of Caracas at about 5 p.m. local time, Fire Chief Rodolfo Briceno said in an interview.
Polls closed at 8 p.m. local time Sunday, four hours later than originally planned, because of a high turnout, National Electoral Council Vice President Jorge Rodriguez said in a televised press conference in Caracas.
OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro yesterday said fears about Venezuela, the fighting in Iraq and the risk of a supply shutdown by OAO Yukos Oil Co., Russia's biggest oil exporter, have added about $16 a barrel to the price of oil.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pumps more than a third of the world's oil. It has the capacity to add a further 2 million barrels of crude oil to the market each day, Purnomo said. Members of the producer group will discuss output at a meeting in Vienna on Sept. 15, he said.
Yukos will ``very likely'' file for bankruptcy in the next few days unless Russia eases the pressure it's been applying, the Financial Times said, citing an interview with Chief Financial Officer Bruce Misamore.
Russian authorities are taking about half the company's monthly $1.8 billion in cash-flow as part of the government bid to collect a $3.4 billion tax bill, the newspaper said.
``If we are insolvent because we do not have the cash to pay our bills, we have to declare bankruptcy,'' the newspaper quoted Misamore as saying.
``Everything seems to be going wrong for oil consumers at the moment,'' Commonwealth's Thurtell said.
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