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2014-11-16 China-Japan-Koreas

How Well Does China Control Its Military?

Developments in East Asia in recent years hint at the possibility that communication between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is not all that it might be when it comes to coordinating military activities. Incidents such as the surprise stealth fighter test during former U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’ visit in 2011, or the 2007 anti-satellite test, are prime examples of the CCP’s leadership being seemingly unaware of what its military is doing. This suggests weakness in coordination between the center and the military, and helps explain numerous episodes where the civilian apparatus seemed oblivious to the PLA’s activities and confused about officers’ statements that made the PLA appear “rogue.”

The PLA detests political intrusion by the party into its own affairs and has subsequently carved out more autonomy for itself. Thus, the claim that in recent years, “civilian CCP leaders seem to have adopted a hands-off approach to the day-to-day affairs of the PLA” seems to plausibly describe the relationship between the military and the civilian leadership.

This could have far-reaching implications. In 2012, outgoing President Hu Jintao hinted that the chain of military command “might be more fragile than commonly understood,” although the true meaning of this statement remains abstruse. Certainly, confusion in the chain of command is not a new problem for China. Past examples include the 16th Party Congress, when Jiang retired from his post as general-secretary, but retained his seat as chairman of the CMC, while Hu became the new general-secretary. This led to ambiguity as to who was China’s commander in chief and ultimately in charge of the PLA, particularly for potentially explosive issues like Taiwan, where conflict control is complicated by the involvement of the United States.

Prominent analysts of Chinese foreign policy have hypothesized that the CCP general-secretary and chairman of the Central Military Commission is generally not being informed of issues at the operational level, such as specific weapons tests and training exercises or small military patrols outside of China’s immediate borders. Given the apparent absence of any requirement for the PLA to provide operational information, China lacks an explicit mechanism to make sure that coordination between civilian and military authorities takes place. An exacerbating factor is China’s stove-piped bureaucratic system, which aggravates difficulties in horizontal and vertical coordination as well as information sharing between the army and the civilian apparatus.

In a crisis, this lack of a reliable management at the highest levels may lead to unintended and far-reaching consequences, such as accidental escalation. Yet the Chinese foreign policy establishment continues to rely on temporary mechanisms created on an ad hoc basis. During a politico-military crisis, these mechanisms are often as inefficient for information processing as they are ineffective for coordinating actions, since quality information does not reach those in charge in a timely fashion.

Posted by Pappy 2014-11-16 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11131 views ] Top

#1 I'm a whole lot more concerned about how well *we* control their military.

Posted by Whurong Flomosh7989 2014-11-16 00:28|| 2014-11-16 00:28|| Front Page Top

#2 ...Part of the problem is also that China - for all its internal political controls - is still to a disturbing extent a warlord-type set up where the provincial governors run things with autonomy....and the provincial commanders do their own thing with surprisingly little interference from Beijing...where the political and military leadership is too busy with political infighting to maintain real control over the military.
Now, that's not to say the provincial commanders won't follow orders when they're told to - but to a far greater extent than the Western militaries, they may act on their own if they feel it's called for.

Mike

Posted by Mike Kozlowski 2014-11-16 08:08|| 2014-11-16 08:08|| Front Page Top

#3 I know they can use the appearance of lack of control to great effect. Sort of, good cop, bad cop, "we can't control them", etc.

Posted by ed in texas 2014-11-16 08:54|| 2014-11-16 08:54|| Front Page Top

#4 Now, that's not to say the provincial commanders won't follow orders when they're told to -

That's one of the reasons outside troops were brought in to suppress the democracy movement in Tiananmen Square rather than using the local garrison.

Posted by Procopius2k 2014-11-16 10:36|| 2014-11-16 10:36|| Front Page Top

#5 Communism requires the troika: Party Vs Internal Security vs Military.

Posted by OldSpook 2014-11-16 10:59|| 2014-11-16 10:59|| Front Page Top

#6 "I know they can use the appearance of lack of control to great effect. Sort of, good cop, bad cop, "we can't control them", etc."

^
This.

Posted by charger 2014-11-16 16:02|| 2014-11-16 16:02|| Front Page Top

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