Article

2014-07-04 Economy

Unexpectedly. I thought May was bad. Now May is good.
The labor market continued to gain momentum and defy a mixed economy in June as employers added 288,000 jobs, the Labor Department said Thursday. Economists had estimated that 215,000 jobs were added last month.
Why is it a "mixed economy" if jobs are up and Wall Street is at an all-time high?
The economy has now gained at least 200,000 jobs a month for the past five months �-- the first such stretch since September 1999-January 2000. The unemployment rate fell to 6.1% vs. 6.3% in May. That's the lowest it's been since September 2008.
Obamalicious! On the other hand ...
A broader measure of distress in the job market �-- which includes part-time employees who prefer full-time jobs, Americans who have given up looking for work, and the unemployed �-- dipped to 12.1% from 12.2%. The number of Americans out of work at least six months dropped by 293,000 to 3.1 million. The long-term unemployed still make up 32.8% of all the jobless.

One modest disappointment is that the report did not reveal the pickup in wage gains that economists have been anticipating. Average hourly earnings are up just 2% over the past 12 months.
And something less than ten percent over the last 30-odd years. In constant dollars, sometimes called "real growth".
That likely will prompt the Federal Reserve to stick to a rough blueprint that doesn't have it raising short-term interest rates before the middle of 2015, says Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics.
After the election. Unexpectedly. When debt service will jump dramatically. Just in time to be blamed on the new conservative Congress.
But Ashworth expects ~~minimum~~ wage increases to accelerate the second half of the year, leading the Fed to raise rates next March.

Also, initial jobless claims have fallen to pre-recession levels.
So the recession is nearly over? Again?
The surprisingly resilient job market has contrasted with an economy that contracted 2.9% in the first quarter �-- its worst performance in five years �-- and weak consumer spending recently.
Aha! So the public still has no confidence in the 'recovery'. Maybe the 15-bazillion dollar debt is making people nervous? Or the Chinese expansion? Syrian meltdown? Iranian bomb? Illegal immigration? Skyrocketing food prices? IRS abuses? Global warming? Fracking earthquakes? We have nothing to fear ... but fear itself.

Posted by Bobby 2014-07-04 12:16|| || Front Page|| [4 views ] Top

#1 not even replacement numbers

Posted by Frank G 2014-07-04 13:26|| 2014-07-04 13:26|| Front Page Top

#2 The Labor Dept numbers are so cooked they're useless. Check with how many are getting social security deductions from their paycheck to get an idea of employment. State/local/union pension deductions are not going the alter significantly. That'll give you a picture of who's working and who's not. From that you'll get the real unemployment figures.

Posted by Procopius2k 2014-07-04 13:47|| 2014-07-04 13:47|| Front Page Top

#3 Not too sure about all this love. I'm not feeling it.

Posted by 49 Pan 2014-07-04 14:04|| 2014-07-04 14:04|| Front Page Top

#4 Productivity levels have not gone up, however.

Posted by Pappy 2014-07-04 14:29|| 2014-07-04 14:29|| Front Page Top

#5 I'll trust Putin before I trust O's stats. Taking a cue from Stalinist Soviet stats...i.e. everything is peachy, the new 'Five Year Plan' is a success.

Posted by borgboy 2014-07-04 15:24|| 2014-07-04 15:24|| Front Page Top

#6 Yup -- SS deductions, productivity, the E6 unemployment rate, the proportion of adults working, median hourly wage -- those are the numbers that help you understand the economy.

Posted by Steve White 2014-07-04 18:13|| 2014-07-04 18:13|| Front Page Top

#7 Pappy's comment on productivity is very important.

The 1st Q of the calendar year had a declining GDP with increasing employment. That created the worst productivity decline in the history of measurement.

Productivity decline eventually works its way into the economy decreasing profits and govt revenue while putting upward pressure on prices. It takes more than a few months but it happens.

One of the reasons for the increase in employment numbers may be the end to the generous unemployment eligibility period.

Posted by lord garth 2014-07-04 18:18|| 2014-07-04 18:18|| Front Page Top

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