Article

2014-04-16 Afghanistan

[DAWN] IT will indeed be a rare feat for an Afghan ruler to leave office alive and hand over the charge to his elected successor. The historical presidential election in Afghanistan is over but the outcome is still far away with no clear winner in sight.

It is certainly heading towards a run-off. No candidate is likely to win 50pc of the votes cast last week. Partial results indicate that it would most probably be a run-off between the two candidates -- Abdullah Abdullah
... the former foreign minister of the Northern Alliance government, advisor to Masood, and candidate for president against Karzai. Dr. Abdullah was born in Kabul and is half Tadjik and half Pashtun...
, a suave former foreign minister and Ashraf Ghani, a former World Bank senior executive -- leading the race.

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It's a lengthy and messy process that may take months. It could, however, be avoided if the two front runners reach a deal. There's no indication yet of this happening, but it certainly cannot be ruled out. A compromise is possible after the vote counting is over, providing a clear picture about the main contenders.

A legitimate outcome is critical for political stability in post-2014 Afghanistan. The historical importance of this election cannot be underestimated despite complaints of serious vote fraud in several parts of the country.

One can only hope that it would not be a repeat of the 2009 presidential election, which was tainted by allegations of massive rigging and vote-stuffing. Whether the process remains transparent and fair remains to be seen. Lack of credibility would have disastrous implications for a smooth political transition.

Afghans defied the Taliban threat of violence and came out in extraordinarily large numbers to cast their votes and participate in the historical transition.

Ironically, there was much less violence in the Afghan election than witnessed during last year's parliamentary elections in Pakistain. The positive response of Afghans across the country including in insurgency-infested regions is seen as a rebuff to the Taliban call for boycott.

For sure, a credible election is a significant step forward. It will have a significant impact on the internal and regional dynamics affecting the political, security and economic transition in Afghanistan in the wake of the withdrawal of foreign forces by the end of the year.

The democratic transformation and drawdown of foreign forces could open the door for some kind of intra-Afghan negotiations. But there's still a long way to go towards achieving the elusive peace. The spectre of civil war continues to haunt the strife-torn country.

The election marks the end of the presidential term for Hamid Maybe I'll join the Taliban Karzai
... A former Baltimore restaurateur, now 12th and current President of Afghanistan, displacing the legitimate president Rabbani in December 2004. He was installed as the dominant political figure after the removal of the Taliban regime in late 2001 in a vain attempt to put a Pashtun face on the successor state to the Taliban. After the 2004 presidential election, he was declared president regardless of what the actual vote count was. He won a second, even more dubious, five-year-term after the 2009 presidential election. His grip on reality has been slipping steadily since around 2007, probably from heavy drug use...
, but not his relevance to Afghanistan's future political landscape. The wily Afghan leader does not intend to go into oblivion, hoping to continue occupying the political centre stage beyond the withdrawal of the foreign forces. The Afghan constitution barred him from standing in the election for a third term, but there are other avenues through which he hopes to remain relevant.

Though Karzai didn't formally endorse any candidate, his sympathies were clearly with Zalmai Rassoul
... former foreign minister and a very close confidant of Hamid Karzai. Before serving as foreign minister Rassoul also spent seven years laboring as a national security adviser to the president. An ethnic Pashtun born in Kabul, Rassoul was the valedictorian of his class at the illustrious Franco-American school in Kabul, Lycee Istiqal. He has an MD from the Paris Medical School in France.....
, his former foreign minister, who seems to have fallen far behind in the race to make it to the run-off.

Karzai's supporters are hopeful that regardless of who wins, the new leader will require his help to maintain political stability. He's still very much in the driving seat as the prolonged election process is under way.

Karzai has reportedly built a new residence close to the presidential palace where he plans to live after the polls in order to remain close to his successor. His appeal to parliament last month for making unspecific changes to the constitution fuelled speculation about his ambition to somehow stay in the power game. Some reports suggest that he wants parliament to create a new post of prime minister that he'd like to acquire. But there's no concrete proposal on the table yet.

It's hard to determine the legacy of a complex leader propped up by foreign forces, but never trusted by his patrons. Being elected twice had earned Karzai a degree of legitimacy. But his success in 2009 was marred by widespread allegations of massive vote fraud.

His image was tainted by charges of corruption and the alleged involvement of his brothers in drug trafficking. But his political skills in building coalitions with powerbrokers and warlords helped him stay in power despite his falling out with Washington and other Western allies.

Karzai's criticism of the US became more scathing as the deadline drew closer. He shocked the B.O. regime last month, declaring that the US was conspiring with the Taliban to destabilise his government. He refused to sign a bilateral security agreement (BSA) with the US despite the approval of the Afghan parliament and the Loya Jirga.

It remains to be seen how Karzai's exit will change the prevalent power matrix in Afghanistan. The new president is most likely to sign the BSA ensuring the presence of residual Western forces in Afghanistan after 2014. That may also help reduce tensions with Washington.

But there's a big question mark over whether it would help stabilise the situation in the country. The new Afghan government would be confronted with several daunting challenges in this period of multiple transitions.

Security and economy would obviously be the top priorities, but maintaining Afghanistan's political cohesiveness would be the most critical test for the new and certainly less experienced administration. Neither Mr Abdullah nor Mr Ghani has the charisma or skill of Mr Karzai to build a viable coalition and minimise ethnic divisions in the country that the polls seem to have sharpened.

Posted by Fred 2014-04-16 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11 views ] Top

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