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2014-03-03 Europe
Ukraine mobilizes army, loses part of its navy
Long article at Yahoo that I edited heavily to the key bits.
Kiev (AFP) - Ukraine warned Sunday it was on the brink of disaster and called up military reservists after Russia's threat to invade its Western-leaning neighbour risked sparking the worst crisis since the Cold War.

Ukraine's new Western-backed Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk -- in power for just a week following the overthrow of a pro-Russian regime -- also warned that any invasion "would mean war and the end of all relations between the two countries."

"We are on the brink of a disaster," Yatsenyuk told the nation of 46 million in a televised address.

Pro-Moscow gunmen who are widely believed to be acting under Kremlin orders intensified their control Sunday over large swathes of a strategic peninsula that has housed Russian navies since the 18th century. Witnesses said Russian soldiers had moved out of their bases and blocked about 400 Ukrainian marines in the eastern port city of Feodosiya. AFP reporters saw a similar presence of troops outside a Ukrainian military installation near the Crimean capital Simferopol and other locations.

But the biggest blow to the new Kiev leaders came when Ukrainian Navy Commander Denis Berezovsky announced a day after his appointment that he was switching allegiance to the pro-Russian authorities in Crimea after gunmen surrounded his building and cut off its electricity.

Crimea's pro-Kremlin government chief Sergiy Aksyonov -- installed in power Thursday after an armed raid on the region's government building and not recognised by Kiev -- immediately named Berezovsky as head of the peninsula's own independent navy.

Fears of Russia's first invasion of a neighbour since a brief 2008 confrontation with Georgia prompted the largely untested interim team in Kiev to put its military on full combat alert and announce the call-up of all reservists.

The vast country on the eastern edge of Europe would face a David-and-Goliath struggle should the conflict escalate. Russia's army of 845,000 soldiers could easily overwhelm Ukraine's force of 130,000 -- half of them conscripts.

Putin said it was his duty to protect ethnic Russians in Crimea and southeastern swathes of Ukraine that have ancient ties to Moscow and look on Kiev's new pro-EU leaders with disdain. Russian officials also argued they had no need to ask the UN Security Council for permission -- as Putin had demanded for any Western action in Syria -- because the wellbeing of their own citizens was at stake.

NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen told Russia during urgent talks in Brussels that its movement of troops "threatens peace and security in Europe."

German Frank-Walter Steinmeier spoke ominously of preventing "a new division of Europe" while France and Britain called for negotiations between Moscow and Kiev -- either directly or through the United Nations.
What's to negotiate: "What's mine is mine, now let's talk about what you get to keep"?
Pro-Kremlin sentiments in Crimea remained in evidence Sunday amid a sea of Russian flags.

"Crimea is Russia," one elderly lady told AFP in front of a statue of Soviet founder Lenin that dominates a square next to the occupied parliament building in the regional capital Simferopol.

The mood in Kiev was radically different as about 50,000 people massed on Independence Square -- the crucible of both the latest wave of demonstrations and the 2004 Orange Revolution that first nudged Kiev on a westward path -- in protest at Putin's latest threat.

"We will not surrender," the huge crowd chanted under grey skies.

Ukraine's prime minister had assured the nation Saturday he was "convinced" Russia would not launch an offensive because Moscow realised it would put an end to relations between two neighbours with centuries of shared history.
Posted by Steve White 2014-03-03 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11136 views ]  Top

#1 There is a lot going on here that the average American is not going to understand. Historically, Crimea is not an ally of Ukraine, in fact, they were enemies for centuries. Catherine the Great built the first Russian port in Sebastopol in the 18th century. Sebastopol is as important to the Russian navy today as Pearl Harbor was to the US in the 1940's.

The current "government" of Ukraine, such as it is, is extremely anti-Russian and there have been noises from some sectors of wanting to join NATO. Russia is not going to allow Crimea to become part of NATO. Russia is not going to risk a repeat of the Crimean War situation of the middle 1800's.

As long as Kiev will respect the autonomy of Crimea, things will probably be ok, otherwise, if Kiev attempts to "Ukranian-ize" Crimea, there will be trouble and there isn't much Ukraine or anyone else is going to do about it. Crimea will always be in the Russian orbit.
Posted by crosspatch 2014-03-03 00:34||   2014-03-03 00:34|| Front Page Top

#2 Ukraine is the game, Crimea is the excuse. Have a look at the map of pipeline routes that tranist Ukraine into Europe. The opening is set, soon the middle game will begin. Russia will not risk direct military conflict on an "inavsion" type scale. They need to seize what they can quickly then hold and wait for winter and remind European politicians who really controls the thermostat. Then Europe will turn a deaf ear to Ukranian cries, press will be excluded as in Georgia. It will be Russia freeing Ukraine from the Fascists or maybe a "stabilizing regime" to ensure warm bottoms in gay Paris. The spice must flow. He who controls the spice, controls the universe. Prophetic, almost.
Posted by jefe101 2014-03-03 01:13||   2014-03-03 01:13|| Front Page Top

#3 Dune comments aside, if Kiev leaves Crimea alone, they will probably be OK.
Posted by crosspatch 2014-03-03 01:26||   2014-03-03 01:26|| Front Page Top

#4 What exactly do you mean by OK?
Hope clouds observation.
Posted by jefe101 2014-03-03 02:25||   2014-03-03 02:25|| Front Page Top

#5 Kiev leaves Crimea alone, they will probably be OK.

They haven't been Ok until now.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2014-03-03 05:02||   2014-03-03 05:02|| Front Page Top

#6 
Posted by Besoeker 2014-03-03 09:20||   2014-03-03 09:20|| Front Page Top

#7 This map of the Crimean Invasion is making the rounds on the net, click map for larger version.

Posted by Crarong Hatrack8773 2014-03-03 09:24||   2014-03-03 09:24|| Front Page Top

#8 Excellent CH, thanks for post the preliminary OB.

Link to above site.
Posted by Besoeker 2014-03-03 09:36||   2014-03-03 09:36|| Front Page Top

#9 Croosppatch. There are no historical relationship between Crimea and Ukraine. Uhraine has not been an independent country since the Rus of Kiev that fell to the Mongol hordes. Later it was disputed between Poland, Russai and the Turks. About Crimea when it was invaded by Tsarist Russia it was ruled by the Tatars. I don't know who toiled in the fields, tatars or ukranian slaves but I can definitely tell you that there was nothing called Ukraine and the Ukranians didn't rule over Crimea. The only reason Crimea has been part of Ukraine was because the latter inherited the boundaries arbitrarily set by the Tsars and Stalin.
Posted by JFM 2014-03-03 10:53||   2014-03-03 10:53|| Front Page Top

#10 What is a group of baboons called?

It is a myth that a group of baboons is called a "Congress." There was a political email chain that circulated a few years ago that made this claim. A "congress" can be a meeting or session of any group. However, according to most scientific-related sites, a group of baboons is actually called a Troop.

Russian Troops have been in Crimea going on 3 days now.

Posted by Claitch Lumplump5553 2014-03-03 10:59||   2014-03-03 10:59|| Front Page Top

#11 Russian Troops have been in Crimea going on 3 days now.

And it's quite likely they'll be there a while longer.
Posted by Ebbang Uluque6305 2014-03-03 12:33||   2014-03-03 12:33|| Front Page Top

#12 It will ultimately depend on what Crimeans want. They aren't going to sit well with the edicts coming out from the thugs currently running Kiev such as trying to ban the Russian language in a majority ethnic Russian autonomous republic.

If Kiev respects Crimea's autonomy and allows the Crimeans to make their own choices, there will not likely be any major loss of life. If Kiev attempts to usurp Crimean autonomy and make it more directly subordinate to Kiev, there will likely be a war, Kiev will lose, and there isn't much anyone else is going to do about it.

It all comes down to whether or not Kiev respects Crimea's status as an autonomous republic or not. If they try to ignore that autonomy, all bets are off.
Posted by crosspatch 2014-03-03 12:42||   2014-03-03 12:42|| Front Page Top

#13 This particular issue needs to be looked at in the historical context of Crimea and Russia and in context with the strategic importance of Sevastopol to Russia. This is less a "Ukraine" issue and more a "Crimea" issue and really needs to be kept in that context. My personal opinion is that Russia is protecting herself strategically and really has little interest beyond Crimea but would be prepared to go farther if Kiev challenges Russia strategic interests with regard to Sevastopol and the surrounding Crimean Republic.
Posted by crosspatch 2014-03-03 12:46||   2014-03-03 12:46|| Front Page Top

#14 Crimea is the shiny. Keep your eyes on the eastern oblasts of the Ukraine. That's the shooting war waiting to happen.
Posted by OldSpook 2014-03-03 13:40||   2014-03-03 13:40|| Front Page Top

#15 Russia has nukes. Ukraine does not. The rest is detail. Take note, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan.
Posted by Iblis 2014-03-03 14:48||   2014-03-03 14:48|| Front Page Top

#16 ...Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia.
Posted by Procopius2k 2014-03-03 15:08||   2014-03-03 15:08|| Front Page Top

#17 By the way "crosspatch", the real "thugs in Kiev" were the Russian authoritarian gangsters who looted the country and got chased out. Ah, but you knew that.

Your phasing is straight from Russian propaganda as is your ethnic justification of an invasion by an authoritarian nationalistic socialist Fuhrer Putin; As Aesop said an ass is always given away by his bray. Care to take off your mask, gospodin Donkey?
Posted by OldSpook 2014-03-03 16:37||   2014-03-03 16:37|| Front Page Top

#18 OS: You forgot to mention the Presidential, er, ex-presidential Mansion. Yunokovich was living like Trump wishes he could.

Posted by Charles 2014-03-03 19:15||   2014-03-03 19:15|| Front Page Top

#19 I for one am happy that the FSB is taking time out of its busy day to read Rantburg!
Posted by Secret Master 2014-03-03 19:45||   2014-03-03 19:45|| Front Page Top

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