Article

2011-01-11 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

Another Reason to let Your Kids Worry About CO2

Climate change may be unstoppable for the next millennium.

Rising carbon-dioxide levels in the atmosphere will affect the climate for at least another 1,000 years, based on a simulation by researchers at Canada's University of Victoria and University of Calgary. That will cause the West Antarctic ice sheet to collapse by the year 3000 and raise sea levels by 4 meters (13 feet), it showed.
I thought the Goracle had it rising by more than that, by 2035. Or was that 2350? Who is right? I am sooo confused!
The study, published online in Nature Geoscience, is the first full climate model to make predictions so far into the future, the Calgary university said in a Jan. 9 statement. Researchers studied the length of time needed to reverse climate-change trends if the world stopped using fossil fuels and putting CO2 in the atmosphere as of 2010 and 2100.
Abstract of the paper, from the link provided in the article:

Following a hypothesized complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions, global climate models simulate approximately constant global mean temperatures for centuries. Long-term simulations with the Canadian Earth System Model suggest that, on these timescales, regional changes in temperature and precipitation are nevertheless significant, and that Southern Ocean warming at intermediate depths could affect the stability of Antarctic ice.

It's $18 to buy the full paper.
"Ongoing regional changes in temperature and precipitation are significant following a complete cessation of carbon-dioxide emissions in 2100, despite almost constant global mean temperatures," researchers said.

The effects' duration may be related to inertia in world oceans, with parts of the southern Atlantic Ocean beginning to warm only now as a result of CO2 emissions in the previous century, according to the researchers.
It takes time to heat up the oceans? Who knew?
"The simulation showed that warming will continue, rather than stop or reverse, on the 1,000-year time scale," [they] said in the statement.
How about cooling from the lack of sunspots? How long does that lag?
Parts of North Africa would experience desertification as land dries out by up to 30 percent, according to the researchers. Ocean warming off Antarctica of up to 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) is likely to trigger "widespread collapse" of the West Antarctic ice sheet, the study shows.
The abstract said "warming at intermediate depths could affect", but the reporter says "likely to". Same thing, right?

Posted by Bobby 2011-01-11 15:33|| || Front Page|| [2 views ] Top

#1 The study, published online in Nature Geoscience, is the first full climate model to make predictions so far into the future

Wow. This guy putting the prediction out of reach by putting it 1000 years into the future makes the "scientists" who were hiding the data look like amateurs. My hat is off to this guy.

Posted by gorb 2011-01-11 16:10|| 2011-01-11 16:10|| Front Page Top

#2 Let's see, 1000 years ago:

Ermengol II succeeds Ermengol I as Count of Urgell.

Albert II, Count of Namur succeeds Albert I.

Bagrat III dispossesses Sumbat III of Klarjeti, who dies thereafter.

German king Henry II enfeoffes(*) Adalbero, Duke of Carinthia with the Carinthian duchy, including the rule over the March of Verona.

(*) That's a real word.

Byrhtferth of Ramsey writes his Manual.

Ibn al-Haytham (Alhacen), a famous Iraqi scientist working in Egypt, feigns madness in fear of angering Al-Hakim, the sixth Fatimid caliph, and is kept under house arrest until 1021, when Al-Hakim croaks.

In other words, what happened a thousand years ago, and likely what happens a thousand years hence, will be as near and dear to all of us as a less entertaining knock off of "The Beastmaster".

Posted by Anonymoose 2011-01-11 16:23|| 2011-01-11 16:23|| Front Page Top