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2010-08-10 Home Front: Politix

Pollster: Baker 'clearly closing the gap' on Patrick

Republican Charles Baker trails Gov. Deval (Whoa! Nice) drapes! Patrick by seven points in the latest polling on the Massachusetts governor's race.
Seven points down doesn't warm the cockles of any of my innards...
Scott Brown trailed Martha Coakley at one point ...
The margin, revealed in internal Baker campaign polling by Public Opinion Strategies, is consistent with the leads Patrick has held in at least two recent polls. In a campaign memo, pollster Neil Newhouse said Baker trailed Patrick by 11 points in the campaign's April poll.

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The latest poll of 500 likely general election voters, taken July 25-27 and with a margin of error of 4.4 percent, showed Patrick with 39 percent, Baker at 32 percent and Treasurer Timothy Cahill at 17 percent.

The poll also found 36 percent of voters believe Patrick deserves reelection and 59 percent believe it's time for a new person to be elected governor, while 80 percent believe the economy is not getting better and 57 percent believe the state is off on the wrong track.

In his "bottom line" findings, Newhouse wrote in his memo to the Baker team: "Despite being a first time candidate who was not that well-known coming into the race, Charlie Baker is clearly closing the gap in this race as Massachusetts voters continue to have doubts about Deval Patrick. Baker is picking up support not only among Independents, but among those voters who say the state is on the wrong track. He is gradually becoming the 'go-to' candidate for change' in the state. It's helpful to put this race in perspective. Charlie Baker's current image among Massachusetts voters is identical to where Deval Patrick was four years ago."

On the image front, 32 percent polled in late July viewed Baker favorably, 15 percent unfavorably and 53 percent of voters either had no impression or had never heard of him. In what Newhouse called a "trial heat," Baker led Patrick 39-37 among voters who have heard of Baker.

Posted by Fred 2010-08-10 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11132 views ] Top

#1 Cahill is a MA machine dem who allegedly "left the party" to run as an independent. Everyone with the political IQ of a cupcake or greater in MA knows this is a crock.

The MA dems have run this Cahill guy in a blatant effort to peel off middle of the road "lunchpail" dems and other independents from repub Charlie Baker. Those who know MA politics say this strategy is working beautifully and despite what polls you see now this will insure a Patrick victory in November. Cahill has said he will not leave the race under any circumstances.

If this works in MA the Dems will do this at the national level in 2012 with an ostensibly middle of the road dem like Webb or Bayh. The Patrick governorship has been a test bed for strategy in getting Obama elected to the presidency, and will continue to be one as long as what they do works.

I'm guessing I'm wrong, but I think Patrick will be re-elected. However, if Baker somehow manages to win this fall, the Dems will be placed in the uncomfortable position of not having a strategy for 2012 presidency chances.

Posted by no mo uro 2010-08-10 06:10|| 2010-08-10 06:10|| Front Page Top

#2 Rasmussen has Patrick up by 6 currently (Patrick was up by 14 in May).

Third party candidates frequently evaporate in the fall.

Posted by lord garth 2010-08-10 06:26|| 2010-08-10 06:26|| Front Page Top

#3 No mo uro may well be correct, and it certainly makes sense, but the plan may be too cute by half.

Given the huge advantage the dems start with, isn't Cahill simply absorbing most of those votes anyway? In other words, won't this let Baker win a plurality with simply the GOP vote?

I discount the "testing" strategy, since nationally the same factors are not present. Notably, the swing voters are really non-partisan and ignorantly disengaged, while in Mass. those types are genetically democrats. Second, the GOP doesn't need the plurality nationally - it leads the democrats by a wide margin - it's just that independents are an enormous chunk as well.

The Brown victory showed that independent grew mightily in Mass., but from essentially nothing to a noticeable percent. Nationally, they've been that way for several decades.

If anything, Patrick becomes the Gov. Granholm of Mass. - default incompetency from voter lethargy, but I expect enough interest in the other races to overcome this.

Posted by Halliburton - Mysterious Conspiracy Division 2010-08-10 10:19|| 2010-08-10 10:19|| Front Page Top

#4 Baker should start running some TV ads discussing Patrick's approval of the Ground Zero mosque.

Posted by Ebbang Uluque6305 2010-08-10 12:39|| 2010-08-10 12:39|| Front Page Top

#5 #3 Hal

" Given the huge advantage the dems start with, isn't Cahill simply absorbing most of those votes anyway? In other words, won't this let Baker win a plurality with simply the GOP vote?"

In most places, you would be correct, but MA doesn't quite work that way.

I've spent a lot of time there. There is a core of about 40% of the population which is stark raving moonbat and will never vote for a Republican. Also, the state has a fairly high population of people who call themselves independent and, if you go down issue by issue, are moderate to conservative, but would cut out their own eyeballs with a piece of half-cooked elbow macaroni before they would vote for a true conservative. There's a lot of intergenerational grudges and oral history that cause this, especially (but not limited to) in the Boston Irish and their kids who've moved to the 'burbs, that will NOT let them vote for "those conservative businessmen bastards who held back my great grandparents", ever, ever, ever, regardless of where they stand on the issues.

If you've spent any time in the Bay State, you'd know just what I'm talking about. These folks drool at the chance of voting for a conservative ward-heeling DINO, or someone who can present himself that way convincingly. The only time they vote Repub is if it is a RINO vs a very left-of-center Dem and even not always then (after all, Patrick got elected). Given the choice between a conservative-seeming dem and anyone with an "R" after their name, they'll choose the conservative dem all the time.

That is why I predect Patrick will win, because he'll get all the moonbats, and Cahill and Baker will split everyone else.

FWIW, I hope I'm completely wrong.

Posted by no mo uro 2010-08-10 17:36|| 2010-08-10 17:36|| Front Page Top

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