Reports are surfacing around the Valley that illegal-immigrant families with school-age children are fleeing Arizona because of a new immigration law.
Some school officials say enough parents and students have told them they plan to leave the state this summer to indicate Hispanic enrollment could drop at some schools. But there's no way to know exactly how many illegal immigrants will depart because schools do not inquire about a student's or a family's legal status.
For schools, the impact could be loss of students and, as a result, loss of state funding and parent support.
Did the NYT write that sentence?
The state could see savings.
Despite signs of an exodus, the picture remains murky. Teachers and principals at Alhambra elementary schools in west Phoenix, for example, are saying goodbye to core volunteer parents, who tell them that the new migration law threatens their family stability and that they must leave. The district expects the new law to drive out an extra 200 to 300 students over the summer.
Balsz Elementary District in east Phoenix lost 70 families in the past 30 days, an unprecedented number, officials said.
In contrast, Isaac Elementary District in Phoenix, where 96 percent of its 8,058 students are Latino, lost fewer students than usual after its Christmas break, and its May enrollment grew by 20 students over last year.
About 170,000 of Arizona's 1 million K-12 students are children of immigrants and include both citizens and non-citizens, according to a 2009 Pew Hispanic Center study.
For every net decline of one student, a school loses an average of $4,404 in state money. The total amount of funding for the 170,000 children of immigrants is about $749 million, or 16 percent, of the state's education budget.
A sizable loss of undocumented families could reduce crowding in some schools and allow others to combine classrooms and reduce teaching staff, said Matthew Ladner, research director for the Goldwater Institute in Phoenix, which has not taken a stance on the law.
"It would actually help the state's balance sheet down the road and would lessen the burden on the general fund," Ladner said.
Worry has spread through the sprawling, 14,538-student Alhambra Elementary School District in Phoenix, which has lost about 2.5 percent, or about 363 students, a year since 2008. That's when a new law took effect that made it more difficult for employers to hire undocumented workers and the recession began ripping away jobs in earnest.
Latino students make up 75 percent of Alhambra's enrollment. Before SB 1070 became law, families in which one parent was legal could still survive. But jobs remain tight, and now, any undocumented family member can be deported after getting a traffic ticket.
Volunteers are dwindling, and fewer parents are showing up for parent coaching and teacher meetings, Alhambra Superintendent Jim Rice said. This summer, the district expects to lose twice as many students, Rice added.
"Our children have been here since they were 1 year old or 2 years old, and they are ready to go to high school," he said. "That's what makes it tough."
Mesa Public Schools, the state's largest unified district, has 67,749 students, and Latino students make up 37.5 percent. It anticipates a decrease of 1,500 students, similar to losses over the past four years.
Paradise Valley Unified District in Phoenix, where nearly a quarter of its 33,431 students are Latino, hasn't seen a large drop in total enrollment.
"A lot of our students go to Mexico for the summer, and we're speculating they may not come back," spokeswoman Judi Willis said. "But we don't know."
Enrollment at Glendale Union High School District, where about half of its 14,940 students are Latino, has held steady, but the number of students signing up for English-language summer school has fallen.
High-school districts are less likely to feel the loss because older kids are more likely to stay behind with friends and relatives, said Craig Pletenik, spokesman for Phoenix Union High School, where more than three-fourths of the district's 25,083 students are Latino. "Our kids are older, and closer to the educational finish line." The district hasn't seen a dip in enrollment.
Claudia Suriano is sitting with four fellow school volunteers at Brunson-Lee Elementary in Phoenix's Balsz district. She is among three who are leaving the state. Two others say their families are still debating.
Suriano is a Phoenix mother of two whose husband just quit a good job as a roofer after five years.
While he has survived atop Valley houses for five summers, he could not stand the heat of the new immigration law.
"He feels so stressed that he's not a citizen. He feels it's going to catch up to him," said Suriano, 27, who also is undocumented. "He speaks excellent English, but he feels a pressure they're going to find out what his status is here, and it's too great a weight for him."
Suriano's husband has been in New Mexico for two weeks, looking for an apartment and a job. She is packing up their Phoenix apartment. "He tells me over in New Mexico, it is like here when we first came: There is no fear and they treat you like human beings."
She tries to explain to her two children, one of whom is not a citizen, why the family must leave after six years.
"They're just innocent children," she said. "The older one - he's 9 - says, 'Mommy, I have my friends here and my school.' They don't understand what in the world is going on."
Word to New Mexico. 
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