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2010-04-15 Home Front: Politix

How Bad Could 2010 Really Get For Democrats?

Though Election Day is still months away, pundits have already begun to speculate on possible outcomes for this year's midterms. There's a general consensus that Democrats will lose seats in November, but beyond that opinions vary widely on how big those losses might be. Some argue that because of the advance notice, passage of health care, and an improving economy (or some combination of all three), Democrats will be able to limit their losses significantly. Others are predicting a repeat of 1994, when Democrats lost 50+ seats and control of the House.

So how bad could 2010 get for the Democrats? Let me say upfront that I tend to agree with analysts who argue that if we move into a "V"-shaped recovery and President Obama's job approval improves, Democratic losses could be limited to twenty or twenty-five seats.

That said, I think those who suggest that the House is barely in play, or that we are a long way from a 1994-style scenario are missing the mark. A 1994-style scenario is probably the most likely outcome at this point. Moreover, it is well within the realm of possibility - not merely a far-fetched scenario - that Democratic losses could climb into the 80 or 90-seat range. The Democrats are sailing into a perfect storm of factors influencing a midterm election, and if the situation declines for them in the ensuing months, I wouldn't be shocked to see Democratic losses eclipse 100 seats.

Consider that Democrats typically lead in the generic ballot, even if they do not gain control of Congress. In 2004, for example, Democrats led Republicans in 63 out of 72 generic ballot tests taken that year. Yet Republicans picked up a handful of seats in 2004 and won the popular vote by three points.

This year, five different polling companies have put Republicans in the lead for the generic ballot in the last two weeks alone - one reason why Michael Barone calls this the worst polling environment for Democrats "during my 50 years of following politics closely." The RCP Average has Republicans leading Democrats by 2.8 points on the generic ballot test. That should equate roughly to a 225-seat Republican majority (Republicans won the national vote by 5 points in 1994), which would almost represent a 50-seat pickup.

But many of these polls survey registered voters. Polling among likely voters, such as Rasmussen Reports, shows Republicans up by about 8-10 points, which would probably represent a seventy-seat pickup.

And the polls of the most highly energized voters are even worse for Democrats. Recent NBC/WSJ polling found that Democrats led by three points among registered voters. But among those most interested in the November elections, Republicans led by 13 points.

This reminds me of the polling that showed Martha Coakley up 15 points in early January, but which also showed her and Scott Brown tied among those most interested in the race.

The exit poll model I used in late 2009 to suggest that the Massachusetts Senate race would be a close one leads to a similar conclusion. You can read the article here for a more thorough explanation, but applying the model to a national ballot test suggests that the Democrats should lose the popular vote 57%-43%.

It isn't just the generic balloting that has been horrendous. Every Democratic Senate candidate except five from very blue states (Pat Leahy (VT), Chuck Schumer (NY), Barbara Mikulski (MD), Dan Inouye (HI) and Richard Blumenthal (CT)) has had at least one poll test placing him or her below 50% this cycle. Similarly, the individual House polling has been uniformly dismal for Democrats. Democrats in light blue districts , like Ben Ray Lujan and Jerry Costello, have been significantly below 50% in polls. Democrats in red districts who normally receive around 60% of the vote are below 50% as well. If these Democrats are truly below 50% in their polling, a ninety-seat pickup is not out of the question.

And this is the present situation. If unemployment doesn't abate and incomes don't rise much, President Obama could easily be hovering around 40% approval in November. What does the generic ballot, which is partially keyed off of the President's approval rating, look like then?

Posted by Fred 2010-04-15 00:00|| || Front Page|| [21 views ] Top

#1 IMO 2010 US Elex will PALE in comparison to 2012-2020 iff IRAN, RADIC ISLAM + MILTERRS declare they not only possess Nukes-WMDS, BUT MORE IMPOR THREATEN TO USE SAME AGZ US-WEST + ALLIED.

To wit,

E.g. WMF > PUTIN: RUSSIA IN 2009 CONFISCATED 50,000 TONS OF TERROR-USABLE EXPLOSIVE MATERIALS AND FLAMMABLE LIQUIDS FROM RUSSIA'S AIRPORTS. INTERNATIONAL SMUGGLING IN SUPPORT OF TERRORISM IS A SERIOUS, WORSENING THREAT TO RUSSIA.

and

SAME > CHINA > CHINESE THINK-TANK: INTERNATIONAL NUCLEAR, ARMS SMUGGLING IS RUNNING RAMPANT AND MOSTLY UN-CONTROLLED. THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR TERRORISM, RADICLAISM IS VERY REAL.

* PAKISTANI DEFENCE FORUM > [Inter-Service-Agency = USDOD] US ANALYST: "JOINTNESS" A THREAT IN BEATING CHINA.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2010-04-15 03:02|| 2010-04-15 03:02|| Front Page Top

#2 And then theres

WMF > RUSSIAN COMMENTATOR: RISE OF CHINA WILL INEVITABLE LEAD TO HOSTILE COMPETITION AGZ RUSSIA RESULTING IN SINO-RUSSIAN GEOPOL, MILITARY CONFRONTATION, POTENTIAL MIL INVASION OF RUSSIA BY CHINA. PLA COULD INAVDE RUSSIA, KAZAKHISTAN [read, Central Asia former SSRS, + MONGOLIA.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2010-04-15 03:06|| 2010-04-15 03:06|| Front Page Top

#3 Proof that this is true can be found in this week's Newsweek magazine cover, which has declared that the recession is over and the economy is roaring, when it's obvious that that isn't the case.

Look at the rumpswabbery of now Bloomberg-owned Businees Week magazine which is in full tongue bath mode when it comes to Obama and the Dems.

There'a a reason for these early forays into declaring that everything is wonderful - that reason is to propagandize as many people as possible to the notion that all is well, the wellness is the result of Obama and congressional Democrats, and that Dem is the way to vote in November.

I didn't think that the MSM would go into this full lie mode this early - I figured it would start late July or so. The fact that they feel the need to do so so early tells me that things are way, way worse for the Dems than it even looks from the outside.

Posted by no mo uro 2010-04-15 06:57|| 2010-04-15 06:57|| Front Page Top

#4 I didn't think that the MSM would go into this full lie mode this early

MSM has been in full lie mode for a long time. Had they done their job of just reporting rather than propaganda, BO never would have been elected. MSM is going into "double-down" full lie mode now. The American people don't believe their blather and lies anymore. As is said People don't need a weatherman to tell which way the wind blows.

Posted by JohnQC 2010-04-15 07:18|| 2010-04-15 07:18|| Front Page Top

#5 Democrats will cut their losses as much as possible in 2010 by relying on the spectacle of the leftist media. The real focus of the left is to regain control for 2012 and beyond. They will continue to demonize the right while playing the "victim" in an attempt to win over Independents; their hope being to keep the White House and regain position in Congress. They will continue to blame Bush and the Republicans for our problems; especially if we get control of either house of Congress. The job of the current administration will be to hold off any attempts to reverse sweeping changes that have angered and energized voters long enough for the left to change the narrative (or for the people to lose interest). I fear that, barring any major international incident, this may work; it has in the past. The far left plays chess very well; they look ahead several election cycles. We would be wise to do the same; 2010 has to be our opening move, not a play for the King.

Posted by Keeney 2010-04-15 09:24|| 2010-04-15 09:24|| Front Page Top

#6 A v-shaped recovery may not happen, but just in case it points out the need for conservatives to focus on government spending, the deficit, and the scandals in Washington, and not just the economy. Bambi's cheerleaders in the MSM will be relentless in trumpeting any slight improvement in the economy as the most wondrous thing ever, so the Pubs had better have the right focus.

Posted by Steve White 2010-04-15 09:42|| 2010-04-15 09:42|| Front Page Top

#7 News has 484,000 new claims for unemployment last week.

After a year and a half, where are Obama's 3-4 million new jobs?

Posted by Besoeker 2010-04-15 10:02|| 2010-04-15 10:02|| Front Page Top

#8 Yup, so much for the rosy recovery predicted by Newsweak. The communists need to be thrown out of government. There is a big, big, big repair job needed in order to re-set the system to the Constitution.

Posted by JohnQC 2010-04-15 11:28|| 2010-04-15 11:28|| Front Page Top

#9 There is a big, big, big repair job needed in order to re-set the system to the Constitution.

Don't leave it to the Rethuglicons to do it alone. We, the people, need to stay on their a$$es 24/7 to do exactly that - restore the government to the limited role it is given in the Constitution. That won't be easy, and will take a tremendous amount of pressure from the people. Anything less, however, will be an open door for more gimmicks that allow congresscritters to buy votes with our money.

Posted by Old Patriot 2010-04-15 13:37|| http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/ 2010-04-15 13:37|| Front Page Top

#10 Besoeker I beieve the AJC said that the unemployment rate has actually went up in GA. Wendys is not even hiring in Franklin county

Posted by chris 2010-04-15 19:01|| 2010-04-15 19:01|| Front Page Top

#11 Makes no difference if the Republicans we elect are sashays like McCain.

Posted by Iblis 2010-04-15 20:19|| 2010-04-15 20:19|| Front Page Top

16:42 M. Murcek
16:25 Glenmore
16:23 Glenmore
16:17 Glenmore
16:14 Glenmore
16:12 Glenmore
16:12 Richard+Aubrey
16:10 Besoeker
16:06 Besoeker
16:05 Glenmore
16:05 Besoeker
16:04 Regular+joe
16:00 Deacon+Blues
15:51 Vinegar+Greque3942
15:51 Bobby
15:46 Procopius2k
15:43 Procopius2k
15:42 Super Hose
15:42 Procopius2k
15:38 M. Murcek
15:32 Super Hose
15:30 Super Hose
15:22 Super Hose
15:20 Besoeker