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2010-02-09 Home Front: Politix

New Hampshire Democrats have been on a roll for years, particularly at the federal level in winning both House seats in 2006, a Senate race in 2008, and going blue for Democrats in the presidential elections of 2004 and 2008. But a new University of New Hampshire Granite State poll shows that the party is in danger of a clean sweep in 2010.

First, the Senate race to replace Judd Gregg (R). Rep. Paul Hodes (D) trails former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R), and he doesn't poll above 40 in any matchup, even with the lesser-known potential opponents he leads.

Ayotte (R) 41 -- Hodes (D) 33 -- Und 25
Hodes (D) 38 -- Lamontagne (R) 29 -- Und 30
Hodes (D) 34 -- Binnnie (R) 30 -- Und 33
Hodes (D) 36 -- Bender (R) 27 -- Und 35

In the first Congressional District, Rep. Carol Shea Porter sees her favorable rating dip to 35 percent while 40 percent now view her unfavorably, a net drop of 11 points from October. Right now four Republicans are likely running to challenge her, and she trails each one.

Guinta (R) 43 -- Shea Porter (D) 33 -- Und 22
Ashooh (R) 36 -- Shea Porter (D) 33 -- Und 28
Bestani (R) 36 -- Shea Porter (D) 33 -- Und 30
Mahoney (R) 39 -- Shea Porter (D) 32 -- Und 28

The second Congressional District sees an open seat race. Former Rep. Charlie Bass (R) is running to reclaim the seat he lost to Hodes in 2006; 2008 nominee Jennifer Horn (R) is also running again. On the Democratic side, attorney Ann McLane Kuster (D) will likely face 2002 nominee Katrine Swett (D). Only Swett holds a lead in potential matchups with both Republicans.

Bass (R) 37 -- Swett (D) 30 -- Und 33
Bass (R) 39 -- Kuster (D) 28 -- Und 33

Swett (D) 30 -- Horn (R) 26 -- Und 43
Horn (R) 28 -- Kuster (D) 25 -- Und 44

These outcomes come in the same survey that showed President Obama's support in the Granite State slipping, particularly among independents. The statewide matchups are based on a sample of 444 likely voters interviewed from January 27 to February 3, with a margin of error of +/- 4.7%. The CD-1 sample was 251 adults (MoE +/- 6.2%) and the CD-2 sample was 249 adults (MoE +/- 6.2%).

Posted by GolfBravoUSMC 2010-02-09 10:46|| || Front Page|| [11127 views ] Top

#1 Sounds like a combination of the natives having enough of the Massholes moving in and skewing the voting demographics and some Massholes seeing the light after the Brown election.

Posted by xbalanke 2010-02-09 10:59|| 2010-02-09 10:59|| Front Page Top

#2 If they get rid of that sexist Shea Porter, I'll be one happy chick.

Posted by Cornsilk Blondie 2010-02-09 11:15|| 2010-02-09 11:15|| Front Page Top

#3 Nice trend, but the numbers are too low to mean anything. Yet.

Posted by Iblis 2010-02-09 12:23|| 2010-02-09 12:23|| Front Page Top

#4 Folks, we need to keep our eyes on state and local races where we live, too.

Even for offices that are officially "non-partisan"" at local levels, look these candidates up, find out what political donations they have made. You can get a sense of someone's politics from who they have donated to, even if they won't come out and say.

Posted by crosspatch 2010-02-09 12:38|| 2010-02-09 12:38|| Front Page Top

#5 flushing the Shea-Porter turd would be a good thing, CB!

Posted by Frank G 2010-02-09 20:16|| 2010-02-09 20:16|| Front Page Top

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