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2008-11-13 Iraq
'Clearly in the End Game in Iraq' Gen. McCaffrey
Four-Star Gen. Barry R. McCaffrey (Ret.), a former Gulf War commander, has returned from a week of tours and meetings with civilian and military leaders in Iraq and concluded, "The United States is now clearly in the end game in Iraq."

McCaffrey issued a report to West Point, where he is Adjunct Professor of International Affairs. Among McCaffrey's findings:

-- "The United States is clearly in the end game in Iraq to successfully achieve what should be our principal objectives:
-- The withdrawal of the majority of our ground combat forces in the coming 36 months,
-- Leaving behind an operative civil state and effective Iraqi security forces,
-- An Iraqi state not in open civil war among Shia, Sunnis, and Kurds,
-- An Iraqi nation not at war with its six neighboring states."

However, McCaffrey asserts that "the security situation is still subject to sudden attack at any moment by Al Qaeda in Iraq or to degradation because of provocative behavior by the Maliki government."

Other findings by McCaffrey:

-- The past 18 months have witnessed a dramatic, positive change.
-- Iranian intervention is relentless but has to a great extent alienated the southern Iraqi Shia and been largely ineffective.
-- The Maliki government remains largely dysfunctional in its ability to deliver services to the population.
-- It is almost the case that an Iraqi government in the classic sense does not exist. The glue that holds Iraq together is the U.S. Armed Forces, the U.S. Embassy team, tribal leadership, and the Iraqi Army.
So let's remove the U.S. armed forces and dissolve the glue ...
-- The Sons of Iraq Movement has absorbed more than 100,000 Sunni insurgent fighters and brought them into a neighborhood watch program which has successfully confronted the remnants of the insurgency.

McCaffrey asserts that "Success in Iraq could turn to collapse if the Iraqi politicians cannot agree on a Status of Forces Agreement and the follow-on Strategic Framework Agreement ... This would return our US military units to their base areas and begin a unilateral withdrawal and the cessation of formal U.S. support for the Iraqi government. They are holding a gun to their own head."

Link to full report
Posted by GolfBravoUSMC 2008-11-13 10:56|| || Front Page|| [10 views ]  Top

#1 "The glue that holds Iraq together is the U.S. Armed Forces,the U.S. Embassy team, tribal leadership, and the Iraqi Army."

Notice that the Iraqi civil government is significantly missing from the list. That is why the January elections are so important. If Iraq ends up with a true representative government, this war is over.

Posted by Frozen Al 2008-11-13 11:13||   2008-11-13 11:13|| Front Page Top

#2 Looks like the territory has settled down enough to turn things over to the sod busters and the usual corrupt and self serving territorial government and hacks and move on to the next duty station in another god forsaken place to deal with the restless natives. [circa 1865-1890 or today].
Posted by Procopius2k 2008-11-13 11:28||   2008-11-13 11:28|| Front Page Top

#3 I have never understood why, when we go to set up a government, we always wind up with an inherently unstable / dictatorial parlimentary system; rather than copying our own federalist system of separated powers, coequal branches and limited central authority.

The founding principal of a parlimentary system is that one party, or coalition, controls everything. Ideally if you separate the legislative election from the executive election you get legislators who are not beholden to the party cum executive in the same way.

They are then freer to be concerned with their constituencies and to criticize the executive.

(yes, I know, State dept. wonks)
Posted by AlanC 2008-11-13 13:09||   2008-11-13 13:09|| Front Page Top

#4 We are talking about taking a tribal country based on kinship, shieks, etc and turning it into a nation, where people are supposed to identify themselves as Iraqis. Anthro 101.

We are projecting our values on them and that will not necessarily work. Japan and Germany were similar industrialized societies, and we had full authority to mold them to our means.

This kind of a project takes years and huge resources to do successfully. Our short attention span politicians and public cant grasp it.

What were and are our main goals in Iraq, in Afghanistan? Got to clearly define what they are so we and objectively measure if we met those goals.
Posted by Alaska Paul 2008-11-13 13:25||   2008-11-13 13:25|| Front Page Top

#5 This from the general who predicted 5000 US killed in the Battle for Baghdad.
Posted by WilliamMarcyTweed 2008-11-13 17:52||   2008-11-13 17:52|| Front Page Top

#6 IMO its more correct to say A "LULL/BREAK" IN THE FIGHTING = BATTLE FOR IRAQ. The thing to watch is PAN-ISLAMIST NUCLEARIZATION + whether IRAN successfully conducts its own indigenous nucweaps tests before 2010, NLT 2012 maxima.

US-RADICAL ISLAM > ARE LOCKED IN A WAR FOR CONTROL OF ASIAN MAINLAND [large parts of RUSSIA, CHINA, INDIA, littorals] GOING INTO JAN 2009 + NEW OBAMA ADMIN = "BAMELOT".

The COLD WAR GEOPOL MAP OF ASIA = PAN-ASIAN ORDER IS AT DE FACTO RISK OF BEING OVERWHELMED + CHANGED.
Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-11-13 23:43||   2008-11-13 23:43|| Front Page Top

#7 MUSLIM/ISLAMIC MIL HISTORY + IRAN NUKES + SAVING THE JIHAD > IMO means the ISLAMIST MILITANTS WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN TO IRAQ, like MACARTHUR TO THE PHILIPPINES, to refight the Battle for Iraq and regain "lost honor" agz the US-IGA-Allies.

Jan 2009- 2012 [2016] POST-DUBYA PERIOD > NEITHER THE HIDDEN IMMAM-MAHDI NOR IRANIAN/ISLAMIST NUCLEARIZATION AGENDISTS CAN ASK FOR BETTER OR MORE OPPORTUNE LOCAL-GEOPOL CONDITIONS.
Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-11-13 23:51||   2008-11-13 23:51|| Front Page Top

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