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2008-08-10 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
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Russia: The other struggle Part One - A crumbling Diarchy
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Alyssa Rosenberg, guest-blogging for Ezra Klein makes the very important point that a successful conclusion to the war (from the Russian standpoint) will likely give Putin and his domestic power base (the so-called siloviki clans) a major boost.
In the midst of the sound and fury coming of out of South Ossetia a very interesting series of events from a fortnight ago have gone almost completely mentioned. It all started with one of now Prime Minister Putin's increasingly typical outbursts - at a meeting with business leaders on 35th July he rather boorishly lashed out the head of a company called Mechel steel, accusing him of dodgy business practices, and threatening to 'send a doctor' to visit the company's owner who was in hospital (for non-business related reasons) at the time. Predictably, this caused the Russian stock market to lose about $65 Billion, and Medvedev, looking out for the interests of the business class that make up his main constituency made a few statements to the effect of, 'Putin, shut the fuck up before you put us all out of business' albeit couched in much more cautious terms than that.
A series of what, in the British political parlance, would be called briefings effectively against Medvedev started to appear in the press, talking up how Putin was the 'real' hand behind the country's foreign and security policy, and indeed behind all politics that 'really matters.' This was during this week, when state television (at least the kind that reaches us here in Kyiv) started to be dominated by coverage of the Sniper War between Georgia and South Ossetia that preceded what we're all watching with horror now.
Since war broke out Putin has been the source of the most bellicose statements, often preceding Medvedev's statements of 'official' policy. The very fact that Russia has committed itself so fully, at a major cost to its economy and business environment, at least nominally under 'Commander-in-Chief' Medvedev's orders is indicative of the bind Putin has put him in, and the latter's ability to now de facto create security and foreign policy, at least so far as the current situation is concerned.
Now that it looks like Russia is going to win this thing, and win it big, there's no doubt who'll take the majority of the plaudits when V-G Day is finally declared - V.V. Putin. And that may be the whole point. As I've pointed out below, starting an all out war over South Ossetia is a bit of a bit of a dumb move from the standard cost-benefit analysis of national security. But if you're a 'national leader' in waiting, with a nominal President threatening to undermine your power, well its a hell of a way to consign him to ceremonial status for the rest of his term and get your hands firmly back on the steering wheel. 
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Posted by 3dc 2008-08-10 01:06||
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Posted by Besoeker 2008-08-10 08:37||
2008-08-10 08:37||
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Posted by Swamp Blondie in the Cornfields 2008-08-10 19:14||
2008-08-10 19:14||
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